THREAD: An honest question for stats experts who have criticized me for not using age-adjustment in this post (I discuss it, but I don't highlight it in the graphs or the headline): 1/ acasignups.net/21/12/30/nchs-…
The criticism boils down to this: The main reason White Americans have been dying of COVID at a higher rate than their share of the overall population starting around a year ago is that they make up a *hugely* disproportionate portion of senior citizens to begin with, right? 2/
I agree that this is correct: When you adjust for age by racial/ethnic group, according to @NCHStats, White people only make up around ~41% of cumulative deaths nationally, well below the ~60% they make up of the total population.
🎉📣🧵Last night I noted that I raised exactly $100,000 in 2021 to save democracy & decency this November. Let’s start off 2022 by doubling that by the end of March! Here’s links to 5 types of races to choose from (state legislative pages are on the way soon):
1. First, we desperately need to keep the #HouseBlueIn22! I know it’s a long shot but if the GOP takes control you’ll have lunatics like MTG, Matt Gaetz & Lauren Boebert in charge, & you can kiss the #January6th investigation goodbye. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
2. Second, it's vitally important to not only keep the #SenateBlueIn22 to retain control of judicial appointments, but to *pad* the majority to help prevent a couple of wayward Dems from throwing sand in the gears of President Biden's agenda. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
I was hoping to write up one of those year-in-review pieces for today, but I got caught up with some other posts and never got around to it.
Thank you to everyone who's supported me & my work over the past year (& if you still want to, here's the link!): acasignups.net/support
I will say this: Between the #OmicronVariant, White Supremacists actively working to eliminate democracy, climate change and other horrors, we're living in dark, ugly times...but I still have hope that decency will survive and prevail.
📣 Speaking of decency surviving and conquering White supremacy & authoritarianism, I'm just $425 away from raising $100K for Dem candidates up & down the ballot! Donate NOW to help keep #HouseBlueIn22! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
📣 Elephant in the Room: Yes, more Trump voters have likely died of COVID than Biden voters. No, it likely won’t make much difference in 2022. acasignups.net/21/12/30/cutti…
Deleted a couple of follow-up tweets because too many people aren’t reading the full post before commenting. Yes, I *know* you can’t just assume proportionate death rates by county. I just use that as a conservative baseline.
NOTE: I've made a couple of updates, including a caveat that I'm trying to err on the side of caution as much as possible in my assumptions. This is a VERY ugly, touchy topic and there's still a LOT of unknowns.
🎵 One of these things is not like the other…one of these things just doesn’t belong…🎵
FWIW: For months, Florida has been back-dating their death reports…that is, citing the date of the death itself instead of the day it’s reported. That’s reasonable except it means their “new death” number is always just 1 or 2 since earlier deaths are added to the *total*.
In other words, as I understand it, if 200 deaths are REPORTED today, but only 1 of them actually DIED today, the “new” number will show up as 1 while the other 199 are added to the “total deaths.”