THREAD: An honest question for stats experts who have criticized me for not using age-adjustment in this post (I discuss it, but I don't highlight it in the graphs or the headline): 1/
acasignups.net/21/12/30/nchs-…
The criticism boils down to this: The main reason White Americans have been dying of COVID at a higher rate than their share of the overall population starting around a year ago is that they make up a *hugely* disproportionate portion of senior citizens to begin with, right? 2/
I agree that this is correct: When you adjust for age by racial/ethnic group, according to @NCHStats, White people only make up around ~41% of cumulative deaths nationally, well below the ~60% they make up of the total population.

HOWEVER... 3/
…that DOESN’T explain why their share, even when adjusted down, has been INCREASING every month for over a year now, even though a) seniors are by far the most vaccinated group; b) seniors are more likely to mask up and c) Delta has been hitting younger people? 4/
HAVING SAID THAT, here's what I believe the monthly graph looks like *WHEN* age-adjusted (I'm basing this on the cumulative age-adjusted rates via @NCHStats):
It's that arrow towards the right which was the larger point I was trying to make: Age-adjusted or not, the White percentage of COVID deaths dropped sharply from Election Day 2020 through March 2021...but has been trending steadily back upwards EVER SINCE THEN.
What accounted for the drop from November 2020 - March 2020? My guess would be because that was the period when most senior citizens got vaccinated. If seniors are disproportionately White, it would make sense that they'd see a drop.

What happened starting in April, however?
Well, on March 29th, 6 states opened up COVID vaccinations to ALL adults. By April 19th, all adults NATIONWIDE were eligible to be vaccinated. On May 10th, the Pfizer vaccine was approved for children 12 - 15 years old.
ajmc.com/view/a-timelin…
Here's the R^2 for county-level 2-dose vaccination rates by Trump 2020 vote level over time (my famous scatter-plot graph). Notice anything noteworthy starting in late March/early April???
Here's the Red/Blue vaccination rate slope over time. Again, notice anything noteworthy starting in late March/early April?

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More from @charles_gaba

1 Jan
🎉📣🧵Last night I noted that I raised exactly $100,000 in 2021 to save democracy & decency this November. Let’s start off 2022 by doubling that by the end of March! Here’s links to 5 types of races to choose from (state legislative pages are on the way soon):
1. First, we desperately need to keep the #HouseBlueIn22! I know it’s a long shot but if the GOP takes control you’ll have lunatics like MTG, Matt Gaetz & Lauren Boebert in charge, & you can kiss the #January6th investigation goodbye. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
2. Second, it's vitally important to not only keep the #SenateBlueIn22 to retain control of judicial appointments, but to *pad* the majority to help prevent a couple of wayward Dems from throwing sand in the gears of President Biden's agenda. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
Read 7 tweets
1 Jan
It’s all happening at the zoo…
Read 10 tweets
31 Dec 21
I was hoping to write up one of those year-in-review pieces for today, but I got caught up with some other posts and never got around to it.

Thank you to everyone who's supported me & my work over the past year (& if you still want to, here's the link!):
acasignups.net/support
I will say this: Between the #OmicronVariant, White Supremacists actively working to eliminate democracy, climate change and other horrors, we're living in dark, ugly times...but I still have hope that decency will survive and prevail.
📣 Speaking of decency surviving and conquering White supremacy & authoritarianism, I'm just $425 away from raising $100K for Dem candidates up & down the ballot! Donate NOW to help keep #HouseBlueIn22! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 21
📣 Elephant in the Room: Yes, more Trump voters have likely died of COVID than Biden voters. No, it likely won’t make much difference in 2022.
acasignups.net/21/12/30/cutti…
Deleted a couple of follow-up tweets because too many people aren’t reading the full post before commenting. Yes, I *know* you can’t just assume proportionate death rates by county. I just use that as a conservative baseline.
NOTE: I've made a couple of updates, including a caveat that I'm trying to err on the side of caution as much as possible in my assumptions. This is a VERY ugly, touchy topic and there's still a LOT of unknowns.
Read 4 tweets
31 Dec 21
In fact…it looks like they’ve only sold around 1.8 million cars *total* in the past decade. backlinko.com/tesla-stats Image
You’ve got to be fucking kidding me. Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 21
🎵 One of these things is not like the other…one of these things just doesn’t belong…🎵 Image
FWIW: For months, Florida has been back-dating their death reports…that is, citing the date of the death itself instead of the day it’s reported. That’s reasonable except it means their “new death” number is always just 1 or 2 since earlier deaths are added to the *total*.
In other words, as I understand it, if 200 deaths are REPORTED today, but only 1 of them actually DIED today, the “new” number will show up as 1 while the other 199 are added to the “total deaths.”
Read 4 tweets

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