Thread by @SimonaFoltyn

A few months ago, I set out to document the impact of #Turkey’s growing military presence in #Iraqi #Kurdistan.

Here’s my story for @PBS @Newshour, reported with the invaluable help of @Barzance.

pbs.org/newshour/show/…

And below is a THREAD on key findings.

Turkey has set up around 40 military outposts in northern #Iraq, and carries out frequent ops against the PKK, which Ankara says have killed >100 PKK fighters this yr. But they've also claimed civilian lives and caused systematic depopulation of Iraq’s border areas.

The issue has been underreported in foreign media, partly because the Iraq story is so fixated on US-Iran tensions, partly because Turkey and the KRG restrict access to areas (so-called "red zones") where these military operations take place.

The KRG didn't grant us access, but a local commander let us pass. “You’re going at your own risk. These areas are under Turkish control," he said. We drove through empty valleys, overlooked by Turkish military posts perched atop mountains. We heard artillery fire in the distance

The impact on civilians has been devastating. In the Darkar area, where we focused our reporting, Turkish artillery strikes injured shepherds, killed livestock and displaced thousands. Out of 26 villages in, 24 are now deserted.

Thousands of civilians left the area because of Turkish military operations. But more importantly, some told us that Turkish forces are actively preventing local populations from returning home. "When we approach the village, they fire warning shots," one man told me.

To corroborate civilian statements, @wammezz and I looked at satellite imagery from @Maxar, focusing on the village of Sharanish.

The analysis showed three military outposts surrounding the village (which local authorities confirmed to be Turkish), as well as two road blocks.

#Turkey’s ambassador to Iraq @alirizaguney_tc told @Newshour that Turkish forces will remain in Iraq until the PKK is militarily defeated. He explained that previous, temporary incursions into #Iraq had proven ineffective, & that permanent presence was needed to root out the PKK.

The Iraqi govt used to criticize Turkey’s military operations, though some see those statements as mere lip service to sovereignty, void of any real threat of repercussions. More recently, Baghdad has remained completely silent as Turkish airstrikes pounded Sinjar.

But there are fears within some corners of the Iraqi govt and the KRG, esp the PUK, which has been more sympathetic to the PKK, that Turkey’s military expansion in Kurdistan could result in long-term military presence. Some even use the word occupation.

The KDP has a markedly different stance, driven largely by close economic ties of the Barzani family with Turkey.The KDP has increasingly cooperated with Turkey in its fight against the PKK and is also building bases in PKK strongholds. We visited one such base overlooking Qandil

As for the PKK - let's start out by saying that they are highly controlling of media who are allowed to report in their areas. I was assigned a PKK driver and an approved translator to visit Qandil. They chose the civilians I got to interview.

That's why it's difficult to grasp the complex relationship btw the PKK and civilians who live under their control. Of course, I was only introduced to loyalists. Undoubtedly, there's also an element of coercion, which is why the PKK is accused of using them as human shields.

Makhmour camp is particularly complicated. The camp management says they're not PKK (they basically are). They say the system of governance is democratic (it's not - it's a highly controlled society where everyone must conform to PKK ideology).

The camp mgmt says there are no fighters, only civilians in the Makhmour camp (also not true). I asked them about a Turkish strike that killed 3 residents in June. They said nobody died. But an Iraqi intel source told me those killed were fighters - which is why they hid it.

There's no doubt the residents are indoctrinated, which is why the Turkish government has called the Makhmour camp an incubator for PKK militants. Turkish strikes and KRG entrance restrictions aim to erode support for the PKK (unfortunately we didn't have space to go into this)

But can there actually be a military solution, which is Turkey's stated reason for its expansion into Kurdistan? Many who know much more about this conflict than me would say no.

What's clear is that this latest strategy risks sowing seeds for future instability.

END