The gaslighting cycle:
SAGE: Don't wait till hosp rise to act or it'll be too late
Govt/media:
-'too much uncertainty'/'mild'/'need more data'
-'SAGE modelling wrong'
-'closely following the data' (what data? PCRs/LFD capacity reached)
-'hosps mostly incidental'
-'too late now'!
The misinformation/disinformation campaigns pushing this rhetoric have been incredibly strong with media narratives completely divorced from reality. It's been impossible to breakthrough the spin & frustrating to watch it all unfold, despite numerous warnings from SAGE & others.
I don't believe what's in the media actually represents the scientific consensus on this situation. I think the majority of experts were concerned and supported early action, but listening to media, you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise.
To me, it's a lot like the climate change debate. Imagine if the 3% of climate change denier 'scientists' were platformed as if they represented 50%, and the remaining 97% platformed equally, or potentially even less than that. It'd create a sense of confusion & lack of consensus
The absolutely amazing Jon Oliver said on @LastWeekTonight that it's media's job to portray the representation of scientific opinion. So if 97% of scientists agree on something, 97% of experts portrayed should represent those opinions. But that's not what happens.
Media mainstreams fringe opinions. I don't think this is random, because the scientists who tend to minimise (despite a long history of incorrect claims and predictions) and rationalise govt policy no matter how pseudoscientific are often given the biggest platforms.

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More from @dgurdasani1

2 Jan
Usual misinformation we're used to from the BBC now... there's actually a lot of very strong evidence that masks in schools reduce school outbreaks, infection in children, and in parents alongside other measures. But don't let facts get in the way of your preferred narrative.🧵
Here's one study from Arizona published by the CDC that showed outbreaks in schools with mask mandates were 3.5 lower than schools without:
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Another US study showing counties with mask mandates in schools had much 2x lower rises in paediatrics infection after schools re-opened:
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Read 22 tweets
1 Jan
While the Heneghans, Guptas and Ioannidis' of the world talk about being cancelled, it's scientists who've given stark warnings in crises & advocated for childhood vaccination being abused into silence. The incitement of these attacks comes from the media
theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
I challenged @MattChorley on this on Times Radio recently- for casting doubt on SPI-M-O models that are now very much on track with hospitalisation rates. The media is fully complicit in this, while issuing almost no challenge to misinformation as long as it carries hopium.
Scientists warning based on evidence are attacked relentlessly for 'fear mongering', being 'pro-lockdown', while hopium spreaders are platformed without question, as vital opportunities to protect the NHS & people lives are allowed to pass & murderous policies of govt normalised.
Read 7 tweets
31 Dec 21
An amazing study led by @emcat1 carefully dissecting the properties of omicron relative to other variants. TL;DR:
omicron shows:
-high levels of escape from vaccines with immunity partly restored post-3rd dose
-lower syncytia formation
-different preferred mechanism of cell entry
First, the study predictably showed large reductions in neutralising antibodies for omicron compared to the original variant for all vaccines, with absolute levels lowest for AZ, and higher for both mRNA vaccines (highest for Moderna, and then Pfizer)
Boosting increased neutralising antibody titres, esp for those who had received 2 doses AZ, where this seems essential to partly restore immunity. Not sure what this means, but those with initial AZ boosted with mRNA had a higher proportion with measurable immunity (62% vs 25%).
Read 21 tweets
29 Dec 21
The most disheartening part of this pandemic has been scientists who've been repeatedly wrong, driving policies that've led to loss of life & suffering blaming those who've argued for mitigations throughout as being 'pro-lockdown' when they've done everything to prevent this. 🧵
The worst part of this is that the scientists who argued for sensible measures never had any influence or power- not in SAGE, not outside SAGE. They were consistently ignored. Who were listened to? Heneghan, Gupta, and now Balloux. But sure, blame those who wanted to save lives.
The reason we've needed lockdowns is because of the normalisation of mass infection carried out by groups like HART, UsForThem, GBD proponents, and Global collateral. They've had preferential access to MPs who have parroted their points to justify mass infection.
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec 21
Those who've opposed basic mitigations in schools & vaccines in kids have done this by default, because this is what's led to mass educational disruption for many kids, and unacceptable risks for clinically vulnerable households. It's not open vs closed. It's about opening safely
No one wants schools closed- but they've had to because infection rates got to such heights that they became unsafe. That's why we've got to advocate to make them safer, so *all* children, including those in CV households can stay in school. Anything less is discriminaory.
I had no choice to take my daughter out of school over December, due to a large outbreak in school, very few mitigations & us being a CV household. I want her to be able to enjoy school like other children & get the best education. But the risk was too high. We need to do better.
Read 5 tweets
26 Dec 21
Myth debunking:
After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again- overall, omicron causes *more* and not less severe disease than delta - even at an individual level for most people. Why? 🧵
Your risk of getting hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (any variant) depends on two things?
1. how likely are you to get infected?
2. what is your chance of getting hospitalised *once infected*
In simple terms, because omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection against omicron is vastly lower than with delta. This means risk of 1. is vastly increased- as you're less protected & also v. high background transmission.
Read 10 tweets

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