Usual misinformation we're used to from the BBC now... there's actually a lot of very strong evidence that masks in schools reduce school outbreaks, infection in children, and in parents alongside other measures. But don't let facts get in the way of your preferred narrative.🧵
Here's one study from Arizona published by the CDC that showed outbreaks in schools with mask mandates were 3.5 lower than schools without: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Another US study showing counties with mask mandates in schools had much 2x lower rises in paediatrics infection after schools re-opened: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Another study published in science showing multilayered measures (of which mask wearing was one of the most common ones) reduced risk in parents of children to baseline: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
And real-world data?
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria have all had mask mandates in primary and secondary schools (with massive surges when rules were relaxed). France has had far less educational disruption than us for example. They provide medical grade masks to children.
Prior to vaccination of children for the very short period England had masks in secondaries, infection rates in secondary school age children dipped below those in primary school age children for the first time, as per ONS data.
And in terms of impact on children:
England alone has had comparable (only slightly lower) hospitalisation rates for children with COVID-19 compared to *10 European countries combined* for the same period outlined here: eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
9000 children had been orphaned in England and Wales by end of March 2021 - but no one talks about the impact of early life bereavement on children.
77,000 children estimated to have long COVID- doubled over 4 months due to mass infection in children. 14,000 have had symptoms for *more than a year*. Name any other childhood illness that's had this level of impact.
And loads of people in media and even scientists say impact on kids is minimal in terms of deaths- but we shouldn't have to compare with adults (we don't need a 100K children to die before we consider this a serious issue). Let's compare with childhood illnesses.
COVID-19 caused (yes, caused as per ONS death certification) 82 deaths in children by Dec 2021. The no. of deaths *just this year* is >2x the deaths caused by flu annually prior to the pandemic. Far more than chicken pox, far more than measles or any childhood illness.
So sure, make vague statements about negative impact of masks on 'educational disruption' when it's mass infection that's led mass educational disruption and mass impact to children's physical and mental health. And masks prevent disruption.
We had >200,000 children absent for COVID-19 related reasons with many ill prior to end of term. If that isn't educational disruption what is? Teaching is one of the occupations that has the highest rates of long COVID after health and care workers.
By contrast there is little evidence of harm in the millions of children who've been wearing masks to school for years in some countries, or at least when levels of transmission have been very high.
I agree the equation may be different for children with hearing disability, but there are solutions (transparent masks), and exemptions exactly for these reasons.
As per last ONS publication on New Years eve 1 in 15 primary school age children were infected with SARS-CoV-2 - higher than any other age group, and 1 in 20 2ndary school age children. These are the infection rates children may go back to school with.
What are the plans for preventing superspreading? Not only have we no masks, no supplemental ventilation, parents are mandated to send children to schools in England even if they have infection, and there is no contact tracing in schools.
Apparently sharing air with a case for 7 hours a day in a crowded room with no social distancing, ventilation and masks doesn't make you a contact - so infected and infectious children are mandated to remain in classrooms which fuels infection.
We are the exception in our policies on school, and lack of vaccination offered to all children. Result: exceptionally high rates of hospitalisations, avoidable deaths, and rapid rises in chronic illnesses we don't know how to treat, & children orphaned.
Clinically vulnerable households have little choice but to accept members in the household getting very ill or having to deregister and homeschool. This shouldn't be the choice parents and children have.
Much of this impact on children is on disinformation groups like UsForThem widely platformed in the media, with preferential access to MPs, JCVI (promoting infection in children as advantageous) and scientists that have promoted the pseudoscience platformed in this article.
The gaslighting cycle:
SAGE: Don't wait till hosp rise to act or it'll be too late
Govt/media:
-'too much uncertainty'/'mild'/'need more data'
-'SAGE modelling wrong'
-'closely following the data' (what data? PCRs/LFD capacity reached)
-'hosps mostly incidental'
-'too late now'!
The misinformation/disinformation campaigns pushing this rhetoric have been incredibly strong with media narratives completely divorced from reality. It's been impossible to breakthrough the spin & frustrating to watch it all unfold, despite numerous warnings from SAGE & others.
I don't believe what's in the media actually represents the scientific consensus on this situation. I think the majority of experts were concerned and supported early action, but listening to media, you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise.
While the Heneghans, Guptas and Ioannidis' of the world talk about being cancelled, it's scientists who've given stark warnings in crises & advocated for childhood vaccination being abused into silence. The incitement of these attacks comes from the media theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
I challenged @MattChorley on this on Times Radio recently- for casting doubt on SPI-M-O models that are now very much on track with hospitalisation rates. The media is fully complicit in this, while issuing almost no challenge to misinformation as long as it carries hopium.
Scientists warning based on evidence are attacked relentlessly for 'fear mongering', being 'pro-lockdown', while hopium spreaders are platformed without question, as vital opportunities to protect the NHS & people lives are allowed to pass & murderous policies of govt normalised.
An amazing study led by @emcat1 carefully dissecting the properties of omicron relative to other variants. TL;DR:
omicron shows:
-high levels of escape from vaccines with immunity partly restored post-3rd dose
-lower syncytia formation
-different preferred mechanism of cell entry
First, the study predictably showed large reductions in neutralising antibodies for omicron compared to the original variant for all vaccines, with absolute levels lowest for AZ, and higher for both mRNA vaccines (highest for Moderna, and then Pfizer)
Boosting increased neutralising antibody titres, esp for those who had received 2 doses AZ, where this seems essential to partly restore immunity. Not sure what this means, but those with initial AZ boosted with mRNA had a higher proportion with measurable immunity (62% vs 25%).
The most disheartening part of this pandemic has been scientists who've been repeatedly wrong, driving policies that've led to loss of life & suffering blaming those who've argued for mitigations throughout as being 'pro-lockdown' when they've done everything to prevent this. 🧵
The worst part of this is that the scientists who argued for sensible measures never had any influence or power- not in SAGE, not outside SAGE. They were consistently ignored. Who were listened to? Heneghan, Gupta, and now Balloux. But sure, blame those who wanted to save lives.
The reason we've needed lockdowns is because of the normalisation of mass infection carried out by groups like HART, UsForThem, GBD proponents, and Global collateral. They've had preferential access to MPs who have parroted their points to justify mass infection.
Those who've opposed basic mitigations in schools & vaccines in kids have done this by default, because this is what's led to mass educational disruption for many kids, and unacceptable risks for clinically vulnerable households. It's not open vs closed. It's about opening safely
No one wants schools closed- but they've had to because infection rates got to such heights that they became unsafe. That's why we've got to advocate to make them safer, so *all* children, including those in CV households can stay in school. Anything less is discriminaory.
I had no choice to take my daughter out of school over December, due to a large outbreak in school, very few mitigations & us being a CV household. I want her to be able to enjoy school like other children & get the best education. But the risk was too high. We need to do better.
Myth debunking:
After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again- overall, omicron causes *more* and not less severe disease than delta - even at an individual level for most people. Why? 🧵
Your risk of getting hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (any variant) depends on two things? 1. how likely are you to get infected? 2. what is your chance of getting hospitalised *once infected*
In simple terms, because omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection against omicron is vastly lower than with delta. This means risk of 1. is vastly increased- as you're less protected & also v. high background transmission.