Thread by @nicktolhurst

While it’s an article of faith among many anti Brexiters that Brexit is essentially merely a conspiracy to smuggle through ultra right wing economic policies…this can disguise the fact that if it’s is such a conspiracy…it’s a very badly run one.

- a small thread -

Whiles there’s no doubt that much of the impetus for Brexit came from the neo liberal right one of the less discussed issues is that it’s failing EVEN in those terms.

For many reasons…

1. The irony of Brexit is that it shines a light on changes a UK govt makes post Brexit. That many didn’t notice before.

The UK has always been more deregulated than other EU states - but now those that disagreed with Brexit focus on every change made to hold govt to account.

This means that policy changes are coming under the scrutiny of literally millions while previously criticism of say environmental policies were largely limited to a few thousand green activists/groups.

Connected to this is another point…

2. Brexit, unlike say Thatcherism, was never sold to public as explicitly neo liberal.
Indeed Brexiters went overboard on promises that standards would be higher and the results obviously good.
A significant amount of leavers votes for Brexit for protectionist reasons.

In other words Brexit was sold as something not so much rightwing (apart from the nationalism) but as something that would be BETTER than the EU.

This is fine pre referendum, but post referendum the metrics are now there to test this.

3. Leaving aside immigration, Brexit for many - perhaps most - voters was a mix of protectionism, nostalgia & a genuine belief that Britain is better than EU.
The average leave voter wasn’t really thinking of a Thatcherism mark II.

4. EU members always had flexibility with single market to adopt different policies - what’s happening now is that Brexit has effectively placed a huge tax on trade & the economy while making rightwing policies difficult to push through - it also is leading to a curious paradox..

5. The deregulated UK as EU member was able to veto EU policies on things like British tax havens - without the veto the EU can swing European, even global, policies its own way.

UK now finding out it’s power to push through neoliberal policies outside EU now weaker post Brexit.

6. Johnson’s govt to an unprecedented extent for a Tory govt is dependent on 50odd traditional labour seats staying Tory as it starts to lose traditional liberal younger southern seats - this is now actively providing a break on more Thatcherite policies - an unsolvable problem.

7. Culture war + investment in north was supposed to keep Johnson’s “redwall” voters onside but investment like HS2 has been hugely reduced/won’t come soon enough while income/inherit tax policies geared to Tory voters benefit south far more.
& culture war backfired in Sommer.

The problem now is Brexiters cant get the neoliberal Brexit they want politically - while a good 50% still don’t want any Brexit.

Ironically a softer Brexit wld have given right wingers the space & time they needed to ease their policies in - but that’s not possible either.
So..

So here’s my guess.

At a certain point the Tories will realise they may have to retrench to “save the Brexit ideal”.
Some softening will occur simultaneously with drift to neoliberalism.

It’ll be messy.
But the high point of “hard Brexit utopia” is already, I think, behind us.