Most polls are binary to give the most clear honest result.
eg.
Do you think leaving the EU is
1. A good idea 2. A bad idea
Now sometimes you want middle option(s) to reflect more possibilities/complexity.
This is fine, but here’s what you don’t do..never do..
You NEVER emotionally load pill questions. Just never do this. It’s completely unethical.
So look at the questions. 1. The pro Brexit question is clear & short 2. The remaining question tho isn’t just rejoin - it’s “as soon as possible”
..and the 3rd question..
The middle question is heavily “appealingly pragmatic” not “accept it” but appeals to peoples good idea of themselves..it’s begging remainers to see themselves as sensible people & to plump for that.
It’s a polling classic.
It’s a poll designed to deliver a requested outcome.
But that’s not the only dishonest thing about this poll.
Look at the phrasing again.
It cleverly divides the remain vote in 2 outcomes while unifying leave vote in one. Some leavers might plump for the middle one but that doesn’t matter it’s remain vote that’s divided the most.
As polling questions goes this is one of the most dishonest I’ve ever seen.
But expertly done.
Many renainers will have hesitated on their preferred outcome rejoin because of the extreme sounding “as soon as possible” this sounds divisive after the referendum..then the…
The middle question is made the “nicest emotionally sounding” to scoop up these - neatly dividing remainers and giving the pro Brexit vote the veneer of the most popular choice.
I’ve seen some dishonest polls in my time & this is without doubt 1 of the worst.
Here’s how to test it:
If you insist one extreme is “rejoin as soon as possible” why is there no middle ground for “rejoin later”.
The reason is to manipulate the poll to deliver a proBrexit vote.
Once you see this - and not everyone who doesn’t work with polls will - you see that what @IpsosMORI have beautifully done here:
They’ve taken a majority and turned it into a minority. And a minority into a majority.
It’s without doubt one of the most dishonest polls I’ve seen.
What’s particularly pernicious about the poll is it takes a “very remain stance”:
Someone who wants SM/CU and to rejoin in a few years if there’s a majority for it
…& carefully attempts to steer that person into the middle option to be counted as pro Brexit.
It’s very clever.
POSTSCRIPT
The Head of IPSOS, to spare themselves further reputational damage, has just now deleted tweet & poll.
This is why you can no longer see original tweet in the thread.
A screenshot of the original faked poll.
Now deleted by the head of IPSOS Mori.
POSTSCRIPT 2
Newspapers now broadcasting the fake poll to millions even after @IpsosMORI who organised it have taken it down after it was shown to be loaded to generate a fake outcome.
This is how disreputable polling companies make their money…and how opinion is manipulated.
This is “job done” for IpsosMori.
They delivered a manipulated poll with requested outcome for money.
Newspapers will still report the fake outcome…without mentioning the scandal behind it.
..& of course Ben Page will remain visiting professor at Kings College London.
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While it’s an article of faith among many anti Brexiters that Brexit is essentially merely a conspiracy to smuggle through ultra right wing economic policies…this can disguise the fact that if it’s is such a conspiracy…it’s a very badly run one.
- a small thread -
Whiles there’s no doubt that much of the impetus for Brexit came from the neo liberal right one of the less discussed issues is that it’s failing EVEN in those terms.
For many reasons…
1. The irony of Brexit is that it shines a light on changes a UK govt makes post Brexit. That many didn’t notice before.
The UK has always been more deregulated than other EU states - but now those that disagreed with Brexit focus on every change made to hold govt to account.
The parliamentary language training scheme was set up principally to help MPs with large numbers of voting constituents who have limited English.
But Shrewsbury’s Polish community is relatively small with majority non voting as they are Polish speaking non voting 🇵🇱 citizens.
Also communication shouldn’t be a problem as not only is the English language ability in the young Britain resident Polish community relatively very high…
…but Daniel Kawczynski is already fluent in Polish anyway.
The target is to get the 30 candidates already set up soon before other constituencies and to fight them “like by-elections”.
Worth remembering that should the LibDems prove successful in just these 30 seats than this is already 50% of the way to knocking out the Tory majority.
With these 30 seats the plan is for “go easy” action by Labour to clear the path for tactical voting understanding.
I will be focussing on these 30 seats intensely in the 1-2 years before the election.
This is doable guys!
We need remainers, Labour & LibDems to help out here.
The festival of Brexit, launched as festival of UK, then rebranded as UNBOXED to avoid the unfortunate “FUK-22” abbreviation is being rapidly scaled down due to Covid.
The original plan - a year long festival in 2022 - has now been reduced to just 7 months.
However given Covid restrictions, visa restrictions & UK’s continuing poor Covid performance the organisers are now focussing on involving UK schools to rescue the £120 million project.
The project may now be forced to launch “more remotely” for its new official launch date just 2 months away on the 1st March if Covid continues to be a problem.
It was clear Labour & LibDems split the focus with Labour on Bexley & LibDems on Shropshire.
But unlike some here who discovered electoral politics last week now confidently condemning Labour...have a think about the actual mechanics of this...
1/
Anyone with any sense could see what Labour was doing:
a. Promotion of the candidate from LP HQ was at a bare minimum
b. Labour MPs were openly musing on Labour’s chances being less than LibDems
c. Virtually no Labour MPs visited the seat (we’ll come to the exceptions later)
2/ But what about the Local Association?
Now all those angry PA types condemning Labour actually THINK about what being a local activist means..
You spend your life in places like Shropshire where Labour NEVER wins, you push leaflets, get shouted at for zero reward for decades..
Have to be honest I thought the 2 most likely outcomes in Shropshire were 1. Conservative win 2. Tight LibDem win
The fact LibDems got such a large majority in a very Leave seat means that Brexit is less of an issue now than I thought it was.
The Tory Brexit bonus has gone.
The by-election wasn't fought on Brexit.
And yet such a Leave set deserted the Tories for LibDems.
There's a lesson here:
The coalition for better governance is already here and their Brexit vote 5 years ago is not going to stop many of them voting for it.
Don't want to go overboard but this means if this continues, & Labour/LibDem continue their present EU policies *maybe* my timescale of rejoining the SIngle market (in whatever form) could be possible already in next parliament.
Not certain...but possible.