1/4

Interesting returns reacords in 2021.
A thread to detail.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index returned -2.32% in 2021, which ranks as the fifth worst year on record (data goes back to 1973).

@ritholtz
2/4

Energy stocks experienced their best year on record. The S&P Energy Index returned 54.64%, more than doubling the returns of all but the financials and info tech sectors.
3/4

Whether calculating returns in U.S. dollars or local currency, U.S. equities topped almost all other developed countries in 2021. In dollar currency terms, the MSCI U.S. Index outpaced the MSCI World Ex-U.S. Index by almost 14% last year.
4/4

Excluding precious metals, commodities had their best year on record. With data going back to 2001, the Bloomberg Commodities Ex-Precious Metals Index has never had a better year.

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More from @biancoresearch

3 Jan
1/5

In 2021, the SPX beat the DJIA, NDX. Nasdaq Comp, Russell 1000, 2000, 3000.

For the SPX to be #1 in this group is rare, even more rare when it is not a down year.

Why?

A thread with some ideas

@LynAldenContact @ritholtz
2/5

Let start with a truism ... the "stock market" is really one thing, SPY.

Stock picking is something that we talk about on twitter and only those that underperform actually do.

The more one picks stocks, the worse they underperform. detailed here

spglobal.com/spdji/en/docum…
3/5

And there is only one vehicle to invest in the, the index ETF, which really means SPY (or its forks).

This is chart of all ETF flows, but it is really SPY and its forks.

All this money rams the index higher. Not in the index? You are way behind.

@RobinWigg
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
1/8

Yes, the stock market rally has been very narrow. And yes, since the last stimulus check went out/inflation surged (March 15), inflation has beaten nearly all stocks.

Yes, this is worrisome, and "muddies" the signal of a strong economy.

A thread to explain
@ritholtz
2/8

97% of stocks were >200d MA in mid-April. While the overall SPX climbed and stayed well above its own 200d MA, the pct of stocks above their 200d MA steadily declined.

This is a sign that the rally through most of the year was being led by fewer and fewer stocks.
3/8

The following chart breaks the S&P 500 into ten deciles by mkt cap starting on March 15 (Last stimmy check, inflation takes off).

The 10th decile (largest), provided the best returns over this period. The smallest (decile 1) actually lost money the last 9 1/2 months.
Read 8 tweets
29 Dec 21
1/4

Incredible admission by the CDC today on the devastation they inflicted on the country.

2/4

Who did this hurt the last 21-months?

Not the "wealthy" working from home chortling on twitter about their stock portfolio rocketing higher.

It was the "poor," the 40% of the country that rents and has less than $1,000 in savings, that was devastated by this policy.
3/4

Meanwhile, in other news, economists still cannot figure out why consumer confidence is at a 10-year low, and still worse than the April 2020 lockdown readings.
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 21
1/5

What do you do if you're a hedge fund that has been burned badly by the yield curve flattening? Why you double-down on the same bet!

ft.com/content/bc799a… (
2/5

From the story above ...

But traders and strategists say that some hedge funds are wagering that the yield curve will not flatten much more. ... Kavi Gupta, Bank of America’s co-head of rates trading, said that funds were indeed “still in steepeners”
3/5

A reminder of how the steepening trade has worked out for hedge funds so far

October 27
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 7 tweets
28 Dec 21
1/7

On Monday the number of COVID cases in the U.S. spiked as labs reopened after the holiday. While this is more a technical spike due to labs catching up from previous days, the seven-day moving average is on the verge of making a new high.
2/7

We have argued policy is a reaction function of rising cases. During this wave, imposed restrictions would mostly result in lost workdays as millions are following government guidelines and isolating.

The WSJ is making this exact argument today.

wsj.com/articles/omicr…
3/7

This chart shows 2.04M tested positive in the past 10-days. If we assume 75% are in the workforce (few under 18 test positive), then 1.04% of the workforce is currently “out” with a positive test.

So, the effective unemployment rate just spiked 1.04% in the last 10-days.
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec 21
1/5

With a week to go, the US Aggregate bond market total-return is tracking its third worst year ever.

Data begins in 1976
2/5

Also, with a week to go, the total-return of the 2-year note is tracking its worst year ever, and it first lost ever.

Data goes back t 1973.

(Just ask all the macro hedge funds that got rekted by the carry trade/flattening curve in 2H this year).
3/5

And with a week left in the year, the total-return of the 5-year note is tracking its third-worst year ever.

Data goes back to 1979.
Read 5 tweets

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