While we're on subject of ICU reporting in Ontario
Contrast 9,096 COVID critical illness ICU (CRCI) admissions reported to Oct 31, 2021 in @COVIDSciOntario report to 5,993 CRCI admissions to Oct 31, 2021 reported publicly.
No reason to bring this discrepancy up again, right?
And here are estimates of provincial ICU under-reporting for fall 2020, at least those for which I could do estimates.
Remember this. Watch Quebec for numbers. They will be fast and complete. Assume what is happening in QC is happening where you live.
Also, for those who will respond that QC has an older pop with lots of people in LTC.
You know who doesn't end up in ICU? People 80+. They're not candidates because many can't survive ICU, even w/out COVID, and many have DNRs.
ICU COVID is primarily people in 40s to early 70s.
I've known about ON ICU reporting discrepancy since SciTable report came out. I pointed it out briefly. Then, hoping that it might light some fires somewhere I politely stopped commenting, to give decision makers time to correct w/out embarrassment.
Here's Jan 2/22 update: 6,436
For comment, it would be best to reach authors of SciTable report, who have access to cumulative numbers I and others can't access. I'm just someone who watches how Canada reports severe COVID-19 outcomes, using publicly available data.
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🔵9% Cdn pop infected Nov 15-Jan 4
🔵Omicron fatality, ICU admit rates 50% Delta, hosp rates 70% Delta
🔵2, 3, 4 week lag: hosp, ICU, death
We'd expect 420 deaths, 540 ICU admission, 6,100 hosp's for this period.
Reported: 1,063 deaths, 1,679 ICU, 6,999 hosp
This is based on Cdn pop age structure, age-specific vax rates, IFRs.
If Omicron causes 50% less deaths than Delta the expected national mortality rate is 0.1848, assuming there has been NO Omicron reduction in the 90% protection vs death provided by vaccines.
If Omicron causes 50% fewer ICU admissions than Delta the expected national ICU admission rate is 0.1540, based on current vaccine efficacy vs ICU admission for Omicron reported by @COVIDSciOntario
I update it daily with the latest vaccine efficacy data from @COVIDSciOntario, it's been adjusted to reflect Omicron severity estimated in recent @PublicHealthON study.
And yes, I'm expert in demographics of COVID-19 death in Canada. See link here: rsc-src.ca/en/covid-19-po…
Continuing on the topic of hospitalization and ICU admission reporting across the country....
Yesterday I was talking about under-reporting/delayed reporting of hospitalization and ICU admission data in ON and AB during the 2nd wave, compared to QC.
So, based on the thread yesterday, you can see that most of Canada likely has a similar Omicron burden--certainly everywhere except maybe PEI and NL are similar. Probably minimum 2% of the Canadian population infected from Nov 15-yesterday.
I'll get to the hospitalization reporting oddities shortly, but first I want to emphasize 2 things that maybe weren't clear in yesterday's thread.
Estimates of minimum % Canadian population infected since start of Omicron wave (Nov 15)
Take home:
🔵Min 2% pop likely infected by Dec 30
🔵Case burden similar in most regions
🔵Any differences erased in days by exponential growth
🔵Most important region to watch: Quebec
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The sheet here shows numbers of tests, cases, % test positivity, tests conducted/1,000 population, new cases/1,000 people from Nov 15 (day Omicron first identified in Canada) to Dec 30.
Collated official data come from @covid_canada dashboard, run by Saskatchewan volunteers FYI
@covid_canada Something that's very important to know about the Omicron wave is that some provinces have scaled up testing in proportion to need, until becoming overwhelmed recently. Many did not.