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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
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4 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Quebec hospitalizations yesterday, Jan 3 (reported today).

Total in hospital (left) well past Wave 3 max, approaching wave 2 max.

New hospitalizations yesterday (right) far higher than any point in epidemic to date.

Courtesy @covid_canada
@covid_canada Quebec ICU admissions yesterday, Jan 3 (reported today).

Total in ICU (left) approaching wave 3 max.

New ICU admissions yesterday (right) now almost at peak of new daily admissions in first wave.

Courtesy @covid_canada
@covid_canada Quebec new reported deaths.

Definitely moving up now.

Remember, these are likely deaths from infections contracted 4 weeks ago.
@covid_canada Here's where QC cases were 4 weeks ago (red arrow).

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
5 Jan
Assuming:

🔵9% Cdn pop infected Nov 15-Jan 4
🔵Omicron fatality, ICU admit rates 50% Delta, hosp rates 70% Delta
🔵2, 3, 4 week lag: hosp, ICU, death

We'd expect 420 deaths, 540 ICU admission, 6,100 hosp's for this period.

Reported: 1,063 deaths, 1,679 ICU, 6,999 hosp Image
This is based on Cdn pop age structure, age-specific vax rates, IFRs.

If Omicron causes 50% less deaths than Delta the expected national mortality rate is 0.1848, assuming there has been NO Omicron reduction in the 90% protection vs death provided by vaccines.
If Omicron causes 50% fewer ICU admissions than Delta the expected national ICU admission rate is 0.1540, based on current vaccine efficacy vs ICU admission for Omicron reported by @COVIDSciOntario
Read 9 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
4 Jan
71,000 NEW Canadian deaths is the current Omicron endpoint, if 90% of us are infected. Which is possible in next 4 weeks at current doubling rate.

If that's what you're asking.

Expected annual Canadian flu deaths: 4k

Cdn WWII death toll: <50k

This is what mild actually means
Here is the daily updated spreadsheet any Canada can use to see estimates of future deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations in their regions.

Methods and sources are at bottom.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
I update it daily with the latest vaccine efficacy data from @COVIDSciOntario, it's been adjusted to reflect Omicron severity estimated in recent @PublicHealthON study.

And yes, I'm expert in demographics of COVID-19 death in Canada. See link here: rsc-src.ca/en/covid-19-po…
Read 26 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
3 Jan
While we're on subject of ICU reporting in Ontario

Contrast 9,096 COVID critical illness ICU (CRCI) admissions reported to Oct 31, 2021 in @COVIDSciOntario report to 5,993 CRCI admissions to Oct 31, 2021 reported publicly.

No reason to bring this discrepancy up again, right?
And here are estimates of provincial ICU under-reporting for fall 2020, at least those for which I could do estimates.

Remember this. Watch Quebec for numbers. They will be fast and complete. Assume what is happening in QC is happening where you live.

Read 6 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
3 Jan
Jan 2: Future expected deaths in Canada, provinces, PHUs if 90% pop infected: 71K

Updated for:
-Current @COVIDSciOntario est'd vaccine efficacy vs infection, severe outcomes
-Recent PHO estimates of severity vs SARS2 original

cc @DFisman @AshTuite
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Future expected hospitalizations: 390K
Future expected ICU admissions: 56K

March/20 to date:
-30K deaths
-19K ICU admissions
-98K hospitalizations
And those vaccine protection vs severe outcomes estimates on the @COVIDSciOntario dashboard.

VE vs hospitalization falling. Same trend likely to show in ICU in a few days.

SA did tell us vax protection vs severe outcomes fell from 90-70%. But we focused on that word "mild".
Read 4 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Continuing on the topic of hospitalization and ICU admission reporting across the country....

Yesterday I was talking about under-reporting/delayed reporting of hospitalization and ICU admission data in ON and AB during the 2nd wave, compared to QC.

Today: Omicron reporting

🧵
So, based on the thread yesterday, you can see that most of Canada likely has a similar Omicron burden--certainly everywhere except maybe PEI and NL are similar. Probably minimum 2% of the Canadian population infected from Nov 15-yesterday.
I'll get to the hospitalization reporting oddities shortly, but first I want to emphasize 2 things that maybe weren't clear in yesterday's thread.
Read 35 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Estimates of minimum % Canadian population infected since start of Omicron wave (Nov 15)

Take home:

🔵Min 2% pop likely infected by Dec 30
🔵Case burden similar in most regions
🔵Any differences erased in days by exponential growth
🔵Most important region to watch: Quebec

🧵
The sheet here shows numbers of tests, cases, % test positivity, tests conducted/1,000 population, new cases/1,000 people from Nov 15 (day Omicron first identified in Canada) to Dec 30.

Collated official data come from @covid_canada dashboard, run by Saskatchewan volunteers FYI
@covid_canada Something that's very important to know about the Omicron wave is that some provinces have scaled up testing in proportion to need, until becoming overwhelmed recently. Many did not.
Read 30 tweets

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