@_360Mentor Firs, please leave @ManUtd alone. Peter Drury sent me to bed last night with these words, “Glory days are old, trophies are old, best players are old, the coach is old…and the stadium is Old Trafford.” They are still ringing in my ears. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd Now let’s talk economics. Now that H.E the President has reopened the economy, we (@mofpedU) have a plan to support recovery of households, businesses and economy. The plan includes ongoing fiscal and monetary stimuli as well as new interventions as outlined below. /1 #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU Intervention # 1: implementation of the Parish Development Model to support the 39% of Ugandan households still in subsistence to join the monetized economy. Each of the 10,058 parishes will receive UGX 100m (planning figure, since parishes are not homogeneous). #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU The idea is to take resources, services, focus and government to where people are - at the parish. A lot of thinking and work is being put in to craft a practical implementation plan to minimize past mistakes. We don’t want to throw money to the people. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU The parish model, if well implemented (and effort is being put in to ensure it is), will revolutionize financial inclusion and household productivity. Financial inclusion (and education) are arguably the two most effective “opportunity equalizers”. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU Intervention #2: Capitalization of SACCOs and Emyooga to support micro businesses. Through @MSCuganda GoU is going to continue targeting the financially excluded including farmer groups, active poor, and other informal businesses. A total of UGX 77bn and 260bn…
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda …has been disbursed to support SACCOs and EMYOOGA respectively. The interest rates charged by MSC are 8% for SACCOs/Groups and 13% for agricultural SMEs. MSC has so far established 6,602 SACCOs, and 205,710 saving groups. These are operating 4.1M accounts countrywide. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda EMYOOGA are targeting SACCOs such as those of boda-bodas, women entrepreneurs, carpenters, salon operators, taxi operators, restaurant owners, welders, marketvendors, produce dealers, mechanics, tailors, journalists, performing artists etc. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Those eligible are already benefiting and we shall continue to capitalize them. MSC has already disbursed UGX 231Bn and stimulated savings worth UGX 55 billion. To qualify for EMYOOGA funds one has to belong to a SACCO and save, hence the noise from some people. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Intervention #3: Small Businesses Recovery Fund (SBRF). This is the new baby on the block. A UGX 200 bn fund to support formalized small businesses (employing 5 - 49 people with an annual turnover of between UGX 10m and UGX 100m) to recover. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda The Maximum interest rate charged on the SBRF is 10% per year on a reducing balance. Other facility fees charged by the participating banks to the borrower should not exceed 0.5% of the total loan and it should be paid once for the entire loan. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda The maximum loan amount to a single borrower is UGX 100m while the maximum tenure of the loan is 4 years with a grace period of max 1 year. The business should be able to show or demonstrate capacity for recovery. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Those eligible should submit application to their bank (no need to open a new account). All GoU owned banks (Housing Finance Bank, Post Bank, and Pride Microfinance) as well several other banks are lending the SBRF. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda The loan application form requires (among others): a copy of registration or certificate of incorporation or any other form of licensing; details of business ownership; number of employees; annual revenue projections from the business; and loan amount required. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Intervention #4: UDB credit to medium and large businesses. UDB plans to disburse UGX 612 billion between Jan and Dec 2022. The Minimum loan size is UGX 50 million (for SMEs and Youth) while maximum is US$ 10 million dollars (UGX 36bn). #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Eligibility criteria is simple: Ugandan private sector, registered in Uganda, operating in the priority sectors of manufacturing, commercial agric, agro-industry, tourism, education, health, and infrastructure (including ICT). #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Can be a start-up or existing business seeking to expand. The promoter of the enterprise must be of credible reputation, and in full compliance with all statutory requirements (tax, NSSF and environmental obligations etc.). #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Before you go to UDB ensure you possess: Registration Record, e.g. a proprietorship deed or Certificate of Registration & articles of association, a Trading License (if applicable),
National ID or passport, Bank/Mobile Money/SAACO statements, etc. for 3 months… #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda UDB also asks for other standard requirements of accessibg debt from a financial institution. So ensure they are in place. Don’t expect a compromise of these simply because UDB is government owned. Risk assessment and management is standard. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda Intervention #5: Bailout and coinvestment with Uganda Development Corporation (UDC). We shall also support strategic businesses (those that employ many Ugandans, add value to local materials, pay large sums of tax, etc.) that were hard hit. UDC is being capitalized to…
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda …co-invest with such businesses in order to support them to recover. Then the owners may back their equity and UDC exits in future to support other businesses. #360Mentor
@_360Mentor @ManUtd @mofpedU @MSCuganda In total, if we succeed to raise and deploy UGX 1.058 trillion in parish model (we are still in the budgeting process); plus the over 600 billion UDB intends to lend; plus 260bn for Enyooga; 200bn for SBRF; 77bn for SACCOs; and 100bn of UDC, we expect a UGX 2.3 trillion stimulus.

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More from @rggoobi

5 Jun 21
Behavioral economics teaches that human being do not only behave irrationally, we’re PREDICTABLY irrational. Today I drove around the city and realized 7/10 people wore a mask; and in a proper way. This is very good but raises a few questions:
Thread… 1/
1. Why did people wait for COVID to turn wide-spread to practice the preventive measures that experts have been telling us to practice since the pandemic began?
2. Why did we wait for the car to knock for us to remember to wear the seatbelt?
2/
Behavioralists think people’s decisions are not based on a complete analysis of all available information. That we, humans, tend to make “mental shortcuts” (behavioralists call them heuristics) until we find out that our mental shortcuts lied to us.
3/
Read 11 tweets
2 Jun 21
Dear Ugandans, especially politicians here are the official numbers (as provided by @StatisticsUg):
1. Total population = 41m
2. Average family size = 4.6 persons (largest in Teso 5.9 and lowest in Kampala 3.4)
3. Popn below 18yrs = 54%
4. Urban population = 27%
1/
5. Net pri sch enrollment = 91%
6. Net sec sch enrollment = 27% (Highest in Kampala 52%; lowest in Acholi 7%)
7. Literacy rate = 76% (adults only 72%)
8. Popn with non-communicable diseases = 3.5%
9. Popn that abuse alcohol = 18%(highest in Karamoja 48%; lowest in Busoga 4%)
2/
10. Health insurance coverage = 4% (down from 5% in 2017)
11. Ugandans working (o/o working age popn) = 74% (down from 79% in 2017)
12. Agric workers = 68% (up from 64% in 2017)
13. Child labour = 28%
14. Improved water source = 79%
15. 3 in 10 Ugandans have improved toilet
3/
Read 5 tweets
2 Jun 21
@StatisticsUg releases the 2019/20 Household Survey. Although overall poverty reduced to 20.3% from 21.4% in 2017, Acholi sub-region has registered a high increase in poverty from 33% to 68%. This is huge given that the war ended 15yrs ago and the region has been growing fast.
I’m told by a colleague (top economist) from the region that in 2020 most of the Acholi was badly hit by floods that washed away huts and gardens. As a result crop harvest was very poor.
The Covid shock also impacted heavily on poverty. Pre-Covid numbers had converged back to the 2010 level of 19% but it increased to 22% during Covid, leading to an overall poverty rate of 20.3%.
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec 20
URGENT ACTION NEEDED: Ugandan manufacturers are being crowded out of EAC market by non-tariff barriers (NTBs). From closed border with Rwanda to outright flouting of EAC CM protocol by Kenya & TZ, our manufacturers’ access to EAC market has shrunk. Thread... #SaveUGManufacturers
Kenya and TZ are blocking Ugandan exporters from accessing their markets, yet we’re in a common market. The EAC CM had started to smooth trade. When Uganda reported a trade surplus with Kenya, for the first time in 2017, Kenya resorted to NTBs. See table
#SaveUGManufacturers
The figures above (in million US$) show Kenya is playing dirty lately to stop Uganda from exporting to her market. The trade balance between the two countries, that was improving, was reversed last year using NTBs (e.g. origin, standards, permits etc.). #SaveUGManufacturers
Read 7 tweets
18 May 20
Relaxing #lockdown in Uganda; 19 May 2020.

In addition to measures announced earlier, the following have been announced by President:
1. Shops selling general merchandise allowed to open provided they’re not in arcades/malls.
2. Market vendors allowed to commute from home. 1/2
3. Public transport allowed - carry half of the normal capacity wef 2nd June (when masks will be availed free of charge). Not allowed in border districts for another 21 days.
4. Boda-bodas not allowed to carry passengers. Only deliveries. 2/3
5. Bars, night clubs, salons, gyms, saunas, not allowed to open for 21 days
6. Education open for finalists (candidate classes) wef 2nd June. The rest should wait.
7. Curfew remains for another 21 days wef 21st May. 3/
Read 4 tweets
12 Apr 20
I can see Western “experts” are struggling to come to terms/explain why #Africans, with our poorly equipped health systems, are not dying (at least as much as Americans & Europeans) from #Covid_19. Many think we are actually dying but underreporting. Let me hazard a few guesses.
I promised a blog on this. I will, but let me first tweet a few ideas. I think structural factors (demographics, weather, population densities and settlement pattern, levels of urbanization etc) could’ve helped Africa to limit the spread of #COVID19, at least for now. 1/
Africa’s much younger populations (median age is 20, with countries such as Uganda 15 and Niger 14) means we’re less likely to notice the virus even if it struck at community level (which it hasn’t). It hasn’t because our mobility levels are low and the virus arrived late. 2/
Read 8 tweets

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