I am seeing and receiving pushback for being a climate scientist speaking out about the #MarshallFire. I understand this perspective. 1) It's difficult to attribute the #ClimateCrisis to any single event, and 2) this event was extremely complex. But hear me out. 1/
1) The #MarshallFire was either a reminder or a wakeup call that whether you live up the canyon (like I do) or on the plains, 🔥 is an ongoing threat. 2) Climate-fire relationships are complex, but due to the #ClimateCrisis, we need to learn to live with 🔥 more than ever. 2/
Hurricane force winds & human development were important factors in the #MarshallFire. But fuel configuration and moisture, and invasive species also important. Fuels include natural & human-derived.
One thing is clear to me. We all need to unite under the same umbrella. 3/
In an era of increasing flammability, we must all invest in fire smart technology, construction, & landscaping. Curb invasive species spread. Embrace fire as a management tool. We must stop waging war against fire, but instead respect it and take steps to live more with it. 4/4
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~30,000 people fled the #MarshallFire, one of the most terrifying experiences we can face. Today I am reflecting on the added anxiety and consequences of fleeing a #climatemergency disaster during the COVID pandemic. Here I'll share a personal story w/ a tiny bit of insight. 1/
Just outside Boulder, circa January 2021
Normally I love the sound of wind in the trees. But the winds were howling that day. It was difficult to ignore. The house was groaning, shifting. We were in full lockdown due to COVID-19. I was trying to stay busy. 2/
My children were playing outside. Mommy I smell smoke...
At first I didn't smell anything. It was a red flag day. Everyone needed to be careful. But then I smelled it and we saw flames down the road. That is our only way out. What happened next was a blur. 3/
Permafrost stores 2x the amount of carbon in the atmosphere yet is not considered by many climate models. Are we totally screwed??? Here I will explain what we know and why I promote #ClimateActionNow but not panic. 1/
The Arctic (and its permafrost soils) is not a missing black box in any climate model, which all include Arctic soils. Until we explicitly include permafrost in these models, it is difficult to know what climate feedbacks we are missing. Likely to be in the middle. 2/
I research abrupt permafrost thaw, known to be a large source of methane. NO large scale models address abrupt thaw, yet. Ouch. Still, some portion of abrupt thaw fluxes are included in current modeling. What's the potential for overlap? More than zero, but we don't know. 3/
Permafrost stores >2x as much as carbon as is in the atmosphere. The most carbon-rich permafrost is associated with ground ice, yet climate models don't account for ice-rich permafrost thaw (Turetsky et al. @Nature 2019). This WICKED problem underestimates Arctic emissions. 1/
In my @CUBoulder lecture today I outlined a trifecta of uncertainties related to permafrost & carbon. 1) We know plants and new biomass will offset some permafrost soil carbon losses with thaw, but how much? And will that "green carbon" last in the face of 🔥🔥👇 2/
#2 wicked uncertainty. How can climate models include abrupt permafrost thaw that leads to massive erosion, landslides, and subsidence? These are incredible state changes that affect meters and meters of soil carbon, yet are currently ignored by climate models. 3/
Please share to build awareness! Permafrost is being featured today at #COP26Glasgow. Here I will explain why this is SO important to our future climate and everything we know and love about the Arctic. Stick with me for a cooler than cool 🧵. Photo @grosse_guido 1/
Permafrost is diverse, comprised of frozen earth (rock, soil, sediment...). It often contains pockets of ice of all sizes. For many many 1000s of yrs, permafrost has been quietly doing its thing. Aggrading & locking atmospheric carbon into frozen ground. A true climate champ! 2/
Permafrost is a HIDDEN gem of the Arctic. Frozen ground is buried by a surface active layer (soil, moss) that freezes & thaws seasonally. But dig deeper, and we come across perennially frozen ground. This makes it difficult to study from surface or remote sensing measurements. 3/
This is a true story, but also science legend. When bogs want to share their secrets, they delight with sunlight & spider webs glistening on wet stems, dragonflies feasting. But a bog can turn on you at any moment, as I learned. 1/
The drive was fueled by stories and big laughter from our guests. Approaching the rolling hills of West Virginia, the Czech scientists pressed their faces against the warm windows. We rolled into motel rooms eager to greet the morning. Such perfect field conditions we thought. 2/
Early morning realization- thick fog had settled in & I couldn’t see the field truck. It will burn off we said confidently. But there was no laughing as we hiked into the bog. Crunchy footsteps connected with frozen peat. It was a magical strange world draped in hoar frost. 3/
This is a story about one of the most powerful plants on Earth, the climate champion Sphagnum moss. This story is about science, discovery, & how much we have left to learn. Not about a distant planet, but a group of plants millions of years old that continues to astound us. 1/
Sphagnum are infamous for storing carbon from the atmosphere via thick layers of peat. Sphagnum tissue decomposes slowly, sometimes more slowly than wood! As a result Sphagnum & peatlands have cooled our climate for millennia. So please thank Sphagnum moss! 2/
In the 1990's I was a new graduate student looking for a way to merge interests in ecology & climate. I started working on permafrost thaw in peatlands, but became obsessed w/ a simple question. Why does Sphagnum decompose slowly? It's unusual so why Why WHY? 3/