Trudeau, like Biden, purports to blame unvaccinated for COVID case explosion, but vast majority of cases are among fully vax and current rate of infection per 100K among fully vax higher than among unvax. Problem is not as simplistic as Trudeau says.
I say this as someone that got vaccinated and boosted at earliest opportunity and am glad that I did. Nor do I fault anyone for rapid spread of Omicron even among fully vax. It's frustrating and discouraging. But Trudeau's hatemongering is no help.
nor is Trudeau correct to blame increase in hospitalizations on unvax. The sudden increase in Ontario hospitalizations is almost entirely due to non-ICU hospitalizations among fully_vax. Something that we all expected (and were assured) would be forestalled by vaccines.
The rise in hospitalizations among fully_vax is discouraging. But it is simplistic and dishonest for Trudeau to blame this rise on unvax, as opposed to unexpectedly disappointing results from vaccines which may have been over-promised.
Toronto provides detailed data by agegroup (but not vax), but are sometimes 7-10 days delayed. New ICU admissions (not occupancy) and deaths remain inconsequential, but non-ICU hospitalization among young people has gone up a lot.
despite VERY disappointing performance of vaccines in preventing cases and now in preventing non-ICU hospitalization, they seem to be holding up in respect to ICU and deaths. If doomcaster projections of overflowing ICUs prove out, vaccine benefit will be much less than promised
I don't blame anyone for this. It was new territory, but if that's what happens, then maybe we should have put more effort into a diversified response including treatment of disease, as opposed to near total reliance on novel vaccine.
and maybe we should be looking carefully at vaccines being used in India, just in case they might be doing better job than the mRNA vaccines that we've totally placed our bet on

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More from @ClimateAudit

7 Jan
To give perspective on difficulties for policy-makers, this graph shows the ratio of full vax non-ICU hospitalizations per MM to unvax non-ICU hospitalizations. Very very rapid erosion of advantage.

Nothing in SciTable Dec 16 briefing even hints at such a possibility. Image
SciTable and other perpetual government critics like to claim that if only govt had listened to them, none of this would have happened. Then Trudeau and others blame unvax for tribulations.
I'm pro-vax, but the problem that govt is facing right now isnt from the unvax, but from infections and hospitalizations among the fully vax as relative protection of fully vax has eroded.
Read 6 tweets
7 Jan
Three weeks ago, Ontario Science Table covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl… challenged claims of lower Omicron severity using data from Gauteng (population 15 MM) shown below.

SciTable are supposed to be non-partisan SCIENCE advisors. Image
here's a comparison of actual Gauteng data up to Dec 16 (github.com/dsfsi/covid19z…). The boxes on right correspond to the excerpts shown in the SciTable figure. In full context, data shows exactly the opposite of SciTable claim. ICU and deaths had risen FAR less than previous waves Image
if the entire data for pandemic had been shown, together with corresponding case data, Ontario politicians and policy-makers would probably have drawn logical conclusion: that data showed Omicron as less severe. But SciTable didn't show them the full story.
Read 6 tweets
4 Jan
I've long commented that the most interesting and disquieting period in Russiagate is period from commissioning of the in early December to appointment of Mueller. I've been cataloguing leaks and documents day-by-day.
does anyone recall any memorable Strzok texts from this period? We all remember the "insurance policy" and smell of Walmart, but those were during the campaign, not the "resistance" period leading up to Mueller. I'll bet that you have a hard time recalling a good one.
There's a reason why it's hard to recall a memorable text from the "resistance" period: there weren't ANY published Strzok-Page texts in original drop between December 13, 2016 and May 18, 2017 (day after Mueller appointment).
Read 15 tweets
3 Jan
UK Covid cases are down almost 50% in two days from their peak. Hopefully they've seen top of this wave. So far no pressure on ICUs or deaths. Ontario doomcasters should note: @NathanStall @BogochIsaac ImageImage
South Africa's omicron wave is about 6 weeks old and waning almost as fast as it began. ICU occupancy, a lag statistic, has continued up but is NOWHERE near peaks of earlier waves. Numbers on right are weekly on same day. ImageImage
on December 16, Ontario Science Table showed steeply increasing South African case data and warned that hospitalization increase accompanied it (implying admissions were for COVID, not with COVID). Image
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec 21
Canadian Institute of Health Information (cihi) has just published data on hospital usage from start of pandemic to June 21. Emergency visits have been down ~20-30% (max 50%) during pandemic.
cihi.ca/en/covid-19-re…
Based on these numbers, I remain puzzled as to why health system as a whole purports to have been under unimaginable stress for 2 years. COVID remains a fraction of the overall health system. Reduction in usage of rest of system much larger than demand from COVID,
unlike other service industries where usage has declined dramatically during pandemic, health services industry seems to have been fortunate enough to maintain income levels and, for some public officials, greatly increase their incomes.
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec 21
covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl… Ontario Science Table has once again scared the wits out of Ontario public and government with latest doomcast, showing lurid European graphs. As usual, they've manipulated data. Can you spot it?
Science Table concealed data prior to June 15, 2021 - the previous wave. In bottom panel, I've shown Ontario (red) vs UK (which is green in top panel, black in bottom). UK has had case resurgence, but ICU and deaths remained low.
UK ICU load went down a couple of months earlier than Ontario - presumably reflecting very late availability of vaccines in Canada (a responsibility and failure of federal govt, not provincial govts.)
Read 6 tweets

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