To give perspective on difficulties for policy-makers, this graph shows the ratio of full vax non-ICU hospitalizations per MM to unvax non-ICU hospitalizations. Very very rapid erosion of advantage.
Nothing in SciTable Dec 16 briefing even hints at such a possibility.
SciTable and other perpetual government critics like to claim that if only govt had listened to them, none of this would have happened. Then Trudeau and others blame unvax for tribulations.
I'm pro-vax, but the problem that govt is facing right now isnt from the unvax, but from infections and hospitalizations among the fully vax as relative protection of fully vax has eroded.
even if vaccines live up to lesser promise of preventing severe disease, their more or less abject failure to prevent infection has apparently given rise to operating problems at hospitals due to staff shortages. This would not have been problem if vaccines worked as expected.
public sector unions, which haven't missed a paycheck during pandemic, are increasingly trying to capitalize on situation to extort more pay from an already and increasingly insolvent government. But local private businesses have already borne entire economic brunt of COVID.
here is corresponding graph for ICU occupancy. This does NOT show ratio for new admissions. As a quick guess from this figure, I'd estimate that ratio is now more like 0.5 for NEW admissions.
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today's disinformation from Ontario Science Table. Local to me, but prob representative of science advice elsewhere. Left- ACTUAL hospitalization data by vax status. Right - hospitalization infographic from Science Table. Look at difference,
2/ up to mid-Dec, actual COVID hospitalizations were dominantly unvax, with only handful of full_vax. In last 3 weeks, reported hosp'ns exploded, with vast majority being two-plus vax. While unvax proportion is higher, "problem" arises from absolute count. Which is now mostly vax
3/ SciTable infographic implies that onslaught of hospitalizations is coming from unvax, with vax hospitalizations making only a minor contribution. No wonder politicians are demonizing unvax. While unvax "over-contribute", they are not driving the increase. Contrary to SciTable
Here's a startling graph illustrating a point that people are beginning to talk about, but not visualizing well. And showing that concepts from 6 weeks ago aren't applying. Changes in ratio of new cases PER 100K of fully vax to unvax.
data is from Ontario, but it sounds like US experience is at least directionally similar. Vaccines were doing excellent (even if not perfect) job against cases, not just against ICU and hospitalization. In midDecember, with arrival of omicron, advantage disappeared, then reversed
the erosion of relative advantage of fully vax to unvax in respect to non-ICU hospitalization also began in mid-December, eroding rapidly. Opinions based on data prior to mid-December are no longer valid.
Three weeks ago, Ontario Science Table covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl… challenged claims of lower Omicron severity using data from Gauteng (population 15 MM) shown below.
SciTable are supposed to be non-partisan SCIENCE advisors.
here's a comparison of actual Gauteng data up to Dec 16 (github.com/dsfsi/covid19z…). The boxes on right correspond to the excerpts shown in the SciTable figure. In full context, data shows exactly the opposite of SciTable claim. ICU and deaths had risen FAR less than previous waves
if the entire data for pandemic had been shown, together with corresponding case data, Ontario politicians and policy-makers would probably have drawn logical conclusion: that data showed Omicron as less severe. But SciTable didn't show them the full story.
Trudeau, like Biden, purports to blame unvaccinated for COVID case explosion, but vast majority of cases are among fully vax and current rate of infection per 100K among fully vax higher than among unvax. Problem is not as simplistic as Trudeau says.
I say this as someone that got vaccinated and boosted at earliest opportunity and am glad that I did. Nor do I fault anyone for rapid spread of Omicron even among fully vax. It's frustrating and discouraging. But Trudeau's hatemongering is no help.
nor is Trudeau correct to blame increase in hospitalizations on unvax. The sudden increase in Ontario hospitalizations is almost entirely due to non-ICU hospitalizations among fully_vax. Something that we all expected (and were assured) would be forestalled by vaccines.
I've long commented that the most interesting and disquieting period in Russiagate is period from commissioning of the in early December to appointment of Mueller. I've been cataloguing leaks and documents day-by-day.
does anyone recall any memorable Strzok texts from this period? We all remember the "insurance policy" and smell of Walmart, but those were during the campaign, not the "resistance" period leading up to Mueller. I'll bet that you have a hard time recalling a good one.
There's a reason why it's hard to recall a memorable text from the "resistance" period: there weren't ANY published Strzok-Page texts in original drop between December 13, 2016 and May 18, 2017 (day after Mueller appointment).
UK Covid cases are down almost 50% in two days from their peak. Hopefully they've seen top of this wave. So far no pressure on ICUs or deaths. Ontario doomcasters should note: @NathanStall@BogochIsaac
South Africa's omicron wave is about 6 weeks old and waning almost as fast as it began. ICU occupancy, a lag statistic, has continued up but is NOWHERE near peaks of earlier waves. Numbers on right are weekly on same day.
on December 16, Ontario Science Table showed steeply increasing South African case data and warned that hospitalization increase accompanied it (implying admissions were for COVID, not with COVID).