Thread by @ZiadFazel

Latest #COVID19 projections from @bcCOVID19group for Omicron infection & hospitalization demand for 8 largest 🇨🇦provinces.

Starting with Dr Karlen's latest analysis:

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

I haven't had a chance to read this yet, but am sharing it for others to analyze too.

@bcCOVID19group @PopAlberta @POP_Quebec @Protect_BC @awong37 @JillianHortonMD @GosiaGasperoPhD @jvipondmd @noelgibney @dupuisj @LeylaDAsadi See today's report from @bcCOVID19group for deeper look at the effect of many of the unknown factors,

bccovid-19group.ca/post/2022-01-0…

Absorb how you wish: their video presentation:



or their generous, immediate sharing of their slides:

bccovid-19group.ca/post/2022-01-0…

I've taken the liberty of annotating @bcCOVID19group Dr Karlen's Alberta Graph by adding:
• translation for log scale to 100, 1000, 10,000 etc
• AHS baseline 173 & maximum 380 ICU capacity
• previous record Hospitalization from AB Health

@PopAlberta

pypm.github.io/home/docs/stud…

@bcCOVID19group @PopAlberta @jvipondmd @GosiaGasperoPhD @drdagly @LeylaDAsadi @GermHunterMD @noelgibney @PfParks @demandsbetter @RajBhardwajMD @Lorian_H About ICU (purple) curves above:
• Dr Karlen is modelling only COVID patients, not those from all causes
• GoA routinely ignores 173 "baseline" capacity to force 380 "maximum" - which devastates health care
• All based on Hospital Admissions, which ↕️

albertahealthservices.ca/br/page17593.a…

@threadreaderapp unroll

@bcCOVID19group @PopAlberta @jvipondmd @GosiaGasperoPhD @drdagly @LeylaDAsadi @GermHunterMD @noelgibney @PfParks @demandsbetter @RajBhardwajMD @Lorian_H I feel like we're standing on Hwy 2 btwn Calgary & Edmonton at 3am.

So far most cars (Hospital) & trucks (ICU) have swerved around us.

But rush hour is coming.

So we either stay here, and get plastered, or GTFO the road by taking EVERY STEP POSSIBLE to avoid getting infected.