Yan Qin Profile picture
Jan 7 15 tweets 3 min read
🚨China Energy policy in 2022

👇This long and extensive 10000-word full page Opinion piece in People’s Daily definitely set the tone for the year and maybe 14FYP (to 2025)

“Energy rice bowl must be in one’s own hands”

opinion.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0107/c… Image
This Opinion on “Pushing forward China energy high quality growth in new era” definitely shed light on policy focus in the upcoming Energy sector’s 14FYP & Carbon peak action plan ✍️

It also mirrors policy signal from Central Economic Workimg Conference.
“The rice bowl of energy must be in their own hands", which is a profound summary of historical experience, is a profound insight into the reality, but also a profound indication of the future.” ➡️
“Based on domestic diversified supply to ensure security, vigorously promote the clean and efficient use of coal, focus on development of non-coal energy, formation of coal,oil,gas, nuclear,new energy,renewable energy multi-wheel drive energy supply system”🔄
Coal:

"…as the main energy source in China, …towards the goal of carbon peak and neutrality, based on national conditions, control total amount, pocket bottom line, orderly reduction and replacement, promote coal consumption transformation and upgrading”
High quality growth:

In particular, as a large manufacturing country, whether China's real economy (represented by the manufacturing sector) can achieve the leap from big to strong, depends on the overall situation of high-quality economic development.
Must seize the "bull's nose" of adjusting energy structure, vigorously enhance energy supply quality, support high-quality development with lower energy cons. &emissions, support systematic changes in economy and society with profound changes in energy sector
Energy activities account for high share of national emissions.
Energy development is linked to construction of material and ecological civilization, we must cross the 'energy transformation' hurdle to achieve comprehensive green transformation
"Four Revolutions, One Cooperation"

This new strategy for energy security by Xi specifies the direction and path for safeguarding China's energy security and promoting the high-quality development of China's energy from a global and strategic perspective.
Adhere to systematic concept, handle multi-dimensional relationships:

development vs emission reduction
carbon reduction vs security
overall vs local
short-/medium- /long-term
standing vs breaking
government vs market
domestic vs international, etc.
Ensuring energy security is the primary task of energy development

Keep a firm grip on the bottom line of energy security.
It should be recognised that security is a prerequisite for development and development is a guarantee for security.
Enhance domestic resource production capacity, Accelerate development and application of advanced exploitation technology for oil and gas resources etc;

Clarify the strategic bottom line of self-sufficiency in domestic production of key energy resources
From the perspective of energy security, the energy system will face huge changes.

in the short term, it will need to bear some pain from transformation, but in the long term, carbon peak and neutrality is a strategic choice to ensure China's energy security
Markets:
To better secure the rice bowl of energy, we must deepen the reform of energy and related fields, and adhere to the two-handed efforts of market & government.
To give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of energy resources
'Only by building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy supply system in a steady and orderly manner can we achieve deep decarbonisation and intrinsic security in the energy sector'

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More from @YanQinyq

Jan 28
🚨China Power Sector Reform

🇨🇳NDRC just released Guidance on Speeding up establishing National Uniform Power Market

This is HUGE news 🎉

2025: preliminary completion 2030: finalizing national power market

Set up national Power Exchange
This new milestone document set out key components of China power market following the Document No.9 in 2015 kicking off the second round of power sector reform

ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/2…

It is official: China power sector liberalization will speed up! 🚀
This monumental guideline has already been approved on 24 November 2021 at 22nd meeting of the central committee for deepening overall reform.

“the development of a unified national market system for electric power.”

news.cn/english/2021-1…
Read 27 tweets
Jan 26
🏭 China Coal power outlook

China Electricity Council expects coal-fired capacity to increase 180 GW in 2021-2030 period to peak at 1260 GW in 2030.

Their report from last December:
cec.org.cn/detail/index.h… Image
China Electricity Council then expects power sector's coal consumption to rise from 2.3 bln tonnes in 2020, to 2.52 bln in 2025, and between 2.45-2.53 bln in 2030.
This implies the pathway for coal plants' emissions then.
🇨🇳 Gas power outlook:

China Electricity Council expects Gas-fired capacity to rise from 98GW in 2020, to 150 GW in 2025 and 235 GW in 2030.

Gas-fired generation expected to increase from 248.5 TWh in 2020 to 670 TWh in 2030

#ONGT
Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
🚨 Latest high-level guidance on China climate policy

At the Politburo group study session on 24 Jan, 🇨🇳president Xi stressed 'Deeply analyzing the situation and tasks in pushing forward Carbon peak and neutrality work'

Xinhua:
news.cn/politics/leade… Image
Xinhua:
Xi stresses solid implementation of decisions, arrangements on carbon peaking, neutrality
english.news.cn/20220125/da588… Image
Xi:
'Push forward Dual Carbon is an urgent need to solve the outstanding problems of resource and environmental constraints and achieve sustainable development.'

'achieving Dual Carbon is a broad and profound change that will not be realized easily'
Read 23 tweets
Dec 6, 2021
⚠️First year of operation will not be smooth, but China's new national Carbon market is facing many more obstacles in run-up to looming compliance deadline.

'Free borrowing' practice and 'Unclear tax rules' could hamper the market #OCTT

Thread 🧵
What is Free Borrowing?

Ahead of looming Compliance deadline on 31 Dec, provincial Ecology and Environment authority is under pressure to ensure enterprises to surrender enough allowances in time.
However, allocation for 2019-2020 has not finalized
In addition, only some of the covered 2162 enterprises have got their trading accounts (or some do not want to trade either)

Shandong province reportedly issued notice to allow 'ETS entities borrowing allowances from each other, and pay back in 2022'
Read 12 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
📰What caused China's Coal shortage?

An in-depth analysis by Caijing (financial news) with exclusive interviews of coal miners/traders/power plants in the journalists' month-long field visits to Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.

Link: bit.ly/3l1ZQbN
These firsthand interviews of stakeholders provide new insights into China's energy crunch.

Some mentioned the 'cutting coal mines' capacity since 2016' as a major reason causing coal shortage.

Caijing journalist found out this is not the case.
Caijing interviewed a Shanxi coal producer:
'Cutting capacity has led to closure of aging and inefficient coal mines, effective coal production capacity has increased, such as closing down 1Mt/yr small ones, build 5 Mt/yr new ones, improving resource supply'
Read 11 tweets
Nov 22, 2021
🏭Coal-fired power plants are still being favored in German power merit order...despite €70/t #EUETS price

European Gas price is just too HIGH

This does exhibit some fundamental support for current carbon rally: high coal burn leads to high EUA demand Image
Coal-fired plants' advantage is clearly shown in its Short run marginal cost vs Gas.

even the 36% efficient coal plants are in the money, as surging gas prices driving up Gas SRMC Image
Thus, it is not surprising to see German coal plants' load hours have picked up notably this autumn.

The chart shows monthly average load of 'hard coal' (not brown coal/lignite). Image
Read 4 tweets

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