Yan Qin Profile picture
Jan 26 5 tweets 2 min read
🏭 China Coal power outlook

China Electricity Council expects coal-fired capacity to increase 180 GW in 2021-2030 period to peak at 1260 GW in 2030.

Their report from last December:
cec.org.cn/detail/index.h… Image
China Electricity Council then expects power sector's coal consumption to rise from 2.3 bln tonnes in 2020, to 2.52 bln in 2025, and between 2.45-2.53 bln in 2030.
This implies the pathway for coal plants' emissions then.
🇨🇳 Gas power outlook:

China Electricity Council expects Gas-fired capacity to rise from 98GW in 2020, to 150 GW in 2025 and 235 GW in 2030.

Gas-fired generation expected to increase from 248.5 TWh in 2020 to 670 TWh in 2030

#ONGT
🇨🇳 Power sector emissions pathway

Another report by the same department of CEC and published on the same day (27 Dec.) expect China power sector emissions to peak in 2028 at 4.7 Gt (scenario 2, RE+nuclear)

cec.org.cn/detail/index.h…
As for why need more coal plants buildout:

- to meet rising power demand (and peak load)
- to facilitate RE integration

This vision for the power system is discussed in the Politburo study session 24 Jan:

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More from @YanQinyq

Jan 28
🚨China Power Sector Reform

🇨🇳NDRC just released Guidance on Speeding up establishing National Uniform Power Market

This is HUGE news 🎉

2025: preliminary completion 2030: finalizing national power market

Set up national Power Exchange Image
This new milestone document set out key components of China power market following the Document No.9 in 2015 kicking off the second round of power sector reform

ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/2…

It is official: China power sector liberalization will speed up! 🚀
This monumental guideline has already been approved on 24 November 2021 at 22nd meeting of the central committee for deepening overall reform.

“the development of a unified national market system for electric power.”

news.cn/english/2021-1…
Read 19 tweets
Dec 6, 2021
⚠️First year of operation will not be smooth, but China's new national Carbon market is facing many more obstacles in run-up to looming compliance deadline.

'Free borrowing' practice and 'Unclear tax rules' could hamper the market #OCTT

Thread 🧵
What is Free Borrowing?

Ahead of looming Compliance deadline on 31 Dec, provincial Ecology and Environment authority is under pressure to ensure enterprises to surrender enough allowances in time.
However, allocation for 2019-2020 has not finalized
In addition, only some of the covered 2162 enterprises have got their trading accounts (or some do not want to trade either)

Shandong province reportedly issued notice to allow 'ETS entities borrowing allowances from each other, and pay back in 2022'
Read 12 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
📰What caused China's Coal shortage?

An in-depth analysis by Caijing (financial news) with exclusive interviews of coal miners/traders/power plants in the journalists' month-long field visits to Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.

Link: bit.ly/3l1ZQbN
These firsthand interviews of stakeholders provide new insights into China's energy crunch.

Some mentioned the 'cutting coal mines' capacity since 2016' as a major reason causing coal shortage.

Caijing journalist found out this is not the case.
Caijing interviewed a Shanxi coal producer:
'Cutting capacity has led to closure of aging and inefficient coal mines, effective coal production capacity has increased, such as closing down 1Mt/yr small ones, build 5 Mt/yr new ones, improving resource supply'
Read 11 tweets
Nov 22, 2021
🏭Coal-fired power plants are still being favored in German power merit order...despite €70/t #EUETS price

European Gas price is just too HIGH

This does exhibit some fundamental support for current carbon rally: high coal burn leads to high EUA demand Image
Coal-fired plants' advantage is clearly shown in its Short run marginal cost vs Gas.

even the 36% efficient coal plants are in the money, as surging gas prices driving up Gas SRMC Image
Thus, it is not surprising to see German coal plants' load hours have picked up notably this autumn.

The chart shows monthly average load of 'hard coal' (not brown coal/lignite). Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
On 24 October, China released Top-level design document in the '1+N' Carbon Peak and Neutrality policy framework.

On the eve of #COP26, and 1 year after China announced 2060 carbon neutral pledge, the implications of this landmark doc are HUGE:

🧵thread:
This doc is released by the Communist Party of China and General Office of the State Council:
gov.cn/zhengce/2021-1…

It is dated 22 September, and titled 'Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality'
This official policy document (the Opinions as above) is the 'top-level design' in China's '1+N' policy framework, i.e. the 1⃣

The N will be gradually released, consisting of Carbon peak action plan and detailed sectoral roadmaps

Read 19 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
OFFICIAL: China just released the Top-level design of its carbon neutrality policy framework ‘1+N’
🎉🎉🎉

On 24 October, the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on carbon peak and neutrality

via Xinhua
China OFFICIALLY releases it top-level design in '1+N' Carbon peak and neutrality policy framework on 24 October.

reported CCTV in daily news Xinwenlianbo:
FULL TEXT of China's Top-level design of Carbon peak and neutrality policy framework.

It is officially released on 24 October, and the document is dated 22 September:
gov.cn/zhengce/2021-1…
Read 4 tweets

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