Thread by @shashj

A few bits and pieces that have helped me make sense of the "what did the West promise Russia about NATO enlargement" debate. 🧵

One is this thread by @e_sarotte, who wrote the book (yalebooks.co.uk/display.asp?k=…) on the issue

https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1474267715909001216?s=20

.@e_sarotte's key conclusion is that Gorbachev ultimately signed a deal he knew would permit NATO expansion.

https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1474267805403000840?s=20

That said, @e_sarotte also argues in her book: "it is hard to avoid the reality that alliance expansion aded to the burdens on Russia's fragile young democracy when it was most in need of friends" (p8) yalebooks.co.uk/display.asp?k=…

.@shifrinson argues: "Although no non-expansion pledge was ever codified, U.S. policymakers presented their Soviet counterparts with implicit and informal assurances in 1990 strongly suggesting that NATO would not expand in post–Cold War Europe" direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…

This is a good debate among historians and scholars on the legacy of NATO expansion. @KimberlyMarten: "a review of the military capabilities that new NATO members brought to the table shows their inclusion weakened NATO, rather than strengthening it"
issforum.org/roundtables/12…

.@JimGoldgeier offers broader context on the expansion debate, and particularly the ways in which NATO reassured Russia through the 1990s.

https://twitter.com/JimGoldgeier/status/1475524222827048960?s=20

.@JimGoldgeier: "the United States has erred throughout this period, particularly in the 1990s, in assuming it could eventually convince Russia that NATO’s persistence and enlargement were good for Russian interests" warontherocks.com/2019/11/promis…

Marc Trachtenberg: "I think it is clear from the historical record that the assurances about NATO non-expansion that both Baker and Genscher gave the Soviets in February 1990 related not just to eastern Germany but to Eastern Europe in general." sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/facult…

"Those assurances amounted to promises—perhaps not “legally binding” promises but promises nonetheless—and Russian allegations to that effect were by no means baseless. Russian leaders were not...simply concocting a false historical narrative" sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/facult…

"Soviets were not deliberately misled at the time the assurances were given. If there was an element of bad faith here, it only came into play months later, when US policy shifted & [US] leaders began to think about bringing the East Europeans into NATO." sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/facult…