A striking story. US special forces and marines have been in Taiwan for over a year: Marines "working with local maritime forces on small-boat training. The American forces have been operating in Taiwan for at least a year" wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
"About two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops are conducting training for small units of Taiwan’s ground forces, the officials said. The U.S. Marines are working with local maritime forces on small-boat training" wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
Another source. "Small numbers of US special operations forces have been rotating into Taiwan on a temporary basis to carry out training of Taiwanese forces, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity." smh.com.au/world/asia/us-…
FT: "The Pentagon has been sending special operations forces to Taiwan for several years to help the country prepare for a possible Chinese attack... the US was training Taiwanese forces partly in connection with that country’s purchase of arms" ft.com/content/467941…
"One person said the rotations had been occurring for at least a decade, and included US marines, army special forces and navy seals." ft.com/content/467941… Has the training grown over time? That's what is implied by the sentence below.
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Antonio Giustozzi: "Both the Russians and the Iranians helped the Taliban advance at a breakneck pace in May–August 2021. They contributed to funding and equipping them, but perhaps even more importantly they helped them by brokering deals ..." rusi.org/explore-our-re…
"The Iranians began to seriously worry when Kabul fell into the hands of the Haqqani network...Even more ominously and provocatively for Iran, they took with them a number of Iranian Baluchi fighters opposed to the Iranian regime" rusi.org/explore-our-re…
"announcement of the first [Taliban] cabinet...was...a worse shock for Iran than it was for Russia. Not only was the promised coalition with non-Taliban figures non-existent, but none of Iran’s numerous allies and clients within the Taliban were included" rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Two issues at stake with AUKUS, and these are being slightly conflated. One is whether Aus should've been open with France sooner. Second is whether France should've been included in pact. 1/4
The answer to the first seems to me to be: yes. And clearly Canberra mostly at fault. But answer to second seems much less clear-cut (though am speculating and happy to be corrected). 2/4
Would France have accepted junior partner status that UK & Aus are comfortable with? If it would, how would US (and UK) feel about co-operation in most sensitive area of defence tech with country that has *never* been as aligned on defence industrial matters as US, UK & Aus? 3/4
In addition to AUKUS, a potentially important (let's see details) shift in US military posture in Asia: "American ships, bomber planes, satellites and military base personnel will all have a significantly increased presence across Australia..." afr.com/policy/foreign…
Dutton: “This will include greater air cooperation, through rotation deployments of all types of US military aircraft to Australia,” ... more “bilateral military exercises”, and “greater combined exercise engagement with partners in the region.” afr.com/policy/foreign…
"..will expand Australia’s space knowledge and capabilities. I’m pleased to announce that the Australian Department of Defence in the United States National Reconnaissance Office have also committed to a broad range of satellite activities” Mr Dutton said" afr.com/policy/foreign…
Joint US-UK-Aus statement: "As the first initiative under AUKUS...we commit to a shared ambition to support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines ... Today, we embark on a trilateral effort of 18 months to identify the optimal pathway to deliver this capability."
On the non-proliferation aspects: "Australia is committed to adhering to the highest standards for safeguards, transparency, verification, and accountancy measures to ensure the non-proliferation, safety, and security of nuclear material and technology." (cc @james_acton32)
"Speculation was rife among diplomatic and defence circles on Wednesday night that Australia was about to partner with the US and UK to buy a nuclear-powered submarine." US may operate Virginia-class out of Perth. UK may help "with reactor technology." afr.com/politics/feder…
"rumours the troubled $90 billion contract with French shipbuilder Naval Group is about to be torn up...Relations between Naval Group and the government have broken down over a series of issues" afr.com/politics/feder… Funny timing: Aus-France 2+2 meeting was two weeks ago!
Perhaps even broader than that: new working group, "AUUKUS, will make it easier for [US, UK, Aus] to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities" politico.com/news/2021/09/1…
The Taliban do politics: "In the absence of a strong, on-the-ground leader, there have been indications of power struggles between different Ghilzai and Durrani leaders, eastern and southern networks, and hardliners and those looking for more flexibility" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
"it does not seem that anybody outside the Taleban’s circle is involved in any substantive discussions...There are no longer any indications that, even if they did happen, appointments [of Karzai/Abdullah/Hekmatyar] would be anything more than symbolic." afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
Fascinating insight from a former Afghan security official: "We all feel the danger, especially those who served in different provinces. We don’t fear the leadership. We fear the ordinary people" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…