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Daniel Swain Profile picture
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7 Jan, 3 tweets, 3 min read
Interesting new analysis led by @ame_kaminari and co-authors including @epispheric demonstrating observed increases in hydroclimatic variability in California. *Increasing* 90th percentile in winter, but decreasing variability in autumn. rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jo… #CAwater
This offers some observational confirmation of climate model projections, which suggest that winter wet extremes will increase substantially with #ClimateChange even as shoulder season precipitation decreases and overall variability increases. #CAwater nature.com/articles/s4155…
Another reflection on @ame_kaminari's analysis: it is striking how many statistically robust changes are occurring to variability & seasonality of both precip & streamflow even when mean annual values change little. Yet another example of why averages can be misleading...#CAwater

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More from @Weather_West

Daniel Swain Profile picture
5 Jan
Our new study on co-occurring air pollution extremes (ozone & PM2.5), led by @wx_statman & w/co-authors including @ClimateChirper, @climate_guy, & @Weather_West, is out today in @ScienceAdvances. We find large increases in co-occurrences in U.S. West.(1/n) science.org/doi/full/10.11…
Increasing air pollution co-occurrence trends are widespread across the U.S. West over the last ~20 years, and encompass almost all of the West's major population centers from the Rocky Mountain Front Range to the Pacific Coast. (2/n) science.org/doi/full/10.11…
This increasing trend in co-occurring high levels of two key classes of air pollutants, ozone (photochemical pollution; think smog) & PM2.5 (fine particulate matter; think smoke) is almost entirely due to increasing frequency of extreme PM2.5 events. science.org/doi/full/10.11… (3/n)
Read 14 tweets
Daniel Swain Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Some photos, footage, and commentary from yesterday's devastating #MarshallFire in Boulder County. All photos and videos taken at various points along South Boulder Road (north side of the fire, looking south, on 12/30/21). Winds were gusting around 90mph at the time. #COwx (1/4)
Fire behavior was as you'd expect in grass/brush amid extreme wind & drought conditions: rapid rates of spread, continuous spotting and periodic sheeting fire. Fire jumped 6-lane Hwy 36 like it was nothing, and there was a 2+ mile long active fireline. #MarshallFire #COwx (2/4)
Behavior and dynamics of the fire plume were fascinating...and scary. A nearly horizontal plume, tilted by extreme westerly downslope winds, transitioned into a shallow pyroCu plume at the top of a hydraulic jump within a pronounced mountain wave. #MarshallFire #COwx (3/4)
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Swain Profile picture
30 Dec 21
Conditions along South Boulder Road right now. #marshallfire #COwx
Unfortunately can confirm that numerous structures are now burning, many of them homes. This is an extreme/dangerous wildland-urban interface fire. Mainly Superior/Louisville. Gusts in excess of 80mph continue.
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Swain Profile picture
30 Dec 21
Serious wind driven brush fire in wildland-urban within/just south of Boulder, CO city limits. Along Marshall road. Estimating downslope wind gusts near 90 mph. #COwx @NWSBoulder @mitchellbyars
#COwx
Multiple structures burning/extreme rate of spread from my vantage point.
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Swain Profile picture
29 Dec 21
As a climate scientist, one aspect of #DontLookUp that resonates strongly is notion that an otherwise solvable planetary crisis will go away if we just ignore it--or that a silver bullet solution will magically present itself. Spoiler alert: it won't. @davidsirota @GhostPanther
Also highly relatable was the impassioned and exasperated rant by @LeoDiCaprio's character. There's a reason why much of the climate science community has responded to this film in a similar way--variations on a theme of "yep, that's all uncomfortably familiar."
It can become exhausting to constantly be the bearer of bad news when many folks simply don't want to hear it. "Why are you always so negative? You always focus on the harm from climate change, not the economic opportunities! Scientists are such pessimists."
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Swain Profile picture
17 Nov 21
Being a climate scientist sometimes feels like being an astrophysicist in one of those 90s asteroid impact disaster movies...
except instead of coming to together to save humanity, the people in power shrug & point out how sending rockets might increase inflation. #ClimateChange
I was once, coincidentally, seated on a flight next to a @NASAJPL scientist who described his job as "taming near-Earth asteroids" from a planetary protection perspective. This is a person who would actually be called to the White House in scenarios portrayed in Hollywood films.
The JPL near-Earth object specialist made it clear that he was more concerned about #ClimateChange than an asteroid impact--not because latter wouldn't be devastating, but because the odds were low in our lifetime & "we would actually do something about it, if it ever came."
Read 4 tweets

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