As a climate scientist, one aspect of #DontLookUp that resonates strongly is notion that an otherwise solvable planetary crisis will go away if we just ignore it--or that a silver bullet solution will magically present itself. Spoiler alert: it won't. @davidsirota@GhostPanther
Also highly relatable was the impassioned and exasperated rant by @LeoDiCaprio's character. There's a reason why much of the climate science community has responded to this film in a similar way--variations on a theme of "yep, that's all uncomfortably familiar."
It can become exhausting to constantly be the bearer of bad news when many folks simply don't want to hear it. "Why are you always so negative? You always focus on the harm from climate change, not the economic opportunities! Scientists are such pessimists."
Virologists, epidemiologists, immunologists, public health scientists and frontline health workers in the COVID era: welcome! (And my sincere condolences.)
Also, I think the "planetary protection" angle is a better analogy than many folks realize. A civilization-ending comet impact is clearly a different problem than climate change, but it makes issues that are more subtle in a climate context quite obvious.
Unfortunately can confirm that numerous structures are now burning, many of them homes. This is an extreme/dangerous wildland-urban interface fire. Mainly Superior/Louisville. Gusts in excess of 80mph continue.
Serious wind driven brush fire in wildland-urban within/just south of Boulder, CO city limits. Along Marshall road. Estimating downslope wind gusts near 90 mph. #COwx@NWSBoulder@mitchellbyars
Being a climate scientist sometimes feels like being an astrophysicist in one of those 90s asteroid impact disaster movies...
except instead of coming to together to save humanity, the people in power shrug & point out how sending rockets might increase inflation. #ClimateChange
I was once, coincidentally, seated on a flight next to a @NASAJPL scientist who described his job as "taming near-Earth asteroids" from a planetary protection perspective. This is a person who would actually be called to the White House in scenarios portrayed in Hollywood films.
The JPL near-Earth object specialist made it clear that he was more concerned about #ClimateChange than an asteroid impact--not because latter wouldn't be devastating, but because the odds were low in our lifetime & "we would actually do something about it, if it ever came."
California, on statewide basis, is now experiencing its worst drought in observational record going back to late 1800s--narrowly beating out peak of last drought in 2014-15 (as measured by PDSI, a metric that takes into account both precip & temperature). #CAwx#CAfire#CAwater
There is a clear trend toward increasing aridity in California--and yet little trend in mean precipitation. How can this be? A very strong warming trend due to #ClimateChange means same the amount of water falling from sky just doesn't go as far as it used to. #CAwx#CAwater
We explored this phenomena in research published in 2015 (finding that rising temps are the main factor behind increasing CA drought severity): pnas.org/content/112/13…
2/The "extreme precipitation-flood paradox" arises from fact that despite abundant evidence for increasing rainfall extremes due to #ClimateChange, there is not (yet) a correspondingly clear & systematic increase in flood magnitude. nature.com/articles/s4324…
3/To address this conundrum, we use a high-resolution regional hydrologic model coupled to a high-resolution (single model) regional climate large ensemble (collectively, a "hydroSMILE") centered on hydrologic Bavaria (including parts of Germany, Austria, & Switzerland).
Dry lightning event of *some* magnitude is now looking increasingly likely across *some portions* of CA on Sun/Mon. Details to come. But first, some thoughts on potential wildfire risks posed if this comes to fruition. (Thread) #CAwx#CAfire
Usually, fewer than 1 in 10 lightning strikes actually ignites a wildland fire. These numbers can be higher if lightning is not accompanied by precip, or if lightning occurs under unusually dry conditions in dense vegetation. But in general, lightning ignition *rate* is low-ish.
A big problem thus arises when there are a very large number of dry lightning strikes. This occurred during the extraordinary and historic Aug 2020 event in Northern CA, where 10,000+ strikes were observed (and subsequently *hundreds* of fires were ignited).