So Omicron and #LongCovid, what’s the deal?
Short 🧵
1/9
We don't know yet how much long term disability Omicron will generate, but it’s not only a matter of time. Separating the effect of vaccines (including boosters) from the effect of the variant will be challenging.
Short 🧵
1/9
We don't know yet how much long term disability Omicron will generate, but it’s not only a matter of time. Separating the effect of vaccines (including boosters) from the effect of the variant will be challenging.
2/9
Breakthrough infection (in the double vaccinated) seems to be associated with less risk of LC. Obviously the evidence comes before Omicron. Also, there’s no evidence I’m aware of on the risk of LC in post booster infection (after 3 doses) whatever the variant.
Breakthrough infection (in the double vaccinated) seems to be associated with less risk of LC. Obviously the evidence comes before Omicron. Also, there’s no evidence I’m aware of on the risk of LC in post booster infection (after 3 doses) whatever the variant.
3/9
Good news about vaccines if we assume the same applies to Omicron, but I’m still concerned. That’s because we have so much more infection with this wave, so even if the risk of LC with Omicron and vaccines is half or a quarter of what we had before, that’s still a lot of LC.
Good news about vaccines if we assume the same applies to Omicron, but I’m still concerned. That’s because we have so much more infection with this wave, so even if the risk of LC with Omicron and vaccines is half or a quarter of what we had before, that’s still a lot of LC.
4/9
A reasonable conservative prevalence of LC (>3m) is 1 in 10 out of all those infected. This is based on updated ONS estimates in Sep 2021. So if this is reduced to 1 in 20 or even 1 in 40 that’s still a lot with a recent infection prevalence of around 1 in 15 in England.
A reasonable conservative prevalence of LC (>3m) is 1 in 10 out of all those infected. This is based on updated ONS estimates in Sep 2021. So if this is reduced to 1 in 20 or even 1 in 40 that’s still a lot with a recent infection prevalence of around 1 in 15 in England.
5/9
Going on a slight tangent here, but the % of LC out of infected always has to be considered in the context of how much community infection is allowed to go around. A prevalence of 1 in 10 going on to develop LC in New Zealand is so different to the same in the UK for example.
Going on a slight tangent here, but the % of LC out of infected always has to be considered in the context of how much community infection is allowed to go around. A prevalence of 1 in 10 going on to develop LC in New Zealand is so different to the same in the UK for example.
6/9
Back to Omicron. We can’t afford to be careless about it. Long Covid is proving extremely challenging for so many people with regards to full recovery, even almost 2y on after the first wave. It’s relapsing often unpredictable nature is a disaster for the workforce.
Back to Omicron. We can’t afford to be careless about it. Long Covid is proving extremely challenging for so many people with regards to full recovery, even almost 2y on after the first wave. It’s relapsing often unpredictable nature is a disaster for the workforce.
7/9
Finally, I have to mention the risk to kids. If you had told me 2 years ago there’ll be so little research and understanding of lingering effects of a new virus in kids during a pandemic in which they’re not protected from mass infection, I would’ve not believed you.
Finally, I have to mention the risk to kids. If you had told me 2 years ago there’ll be so little research and understanding of lingering effects of a new virus in kids during a pandemic in which they’re not protected from mass infection, I would’ve not believed you.
8/9
The ONS estimates released yesterday showed a sharp increase in #LongCovidKids to 117,000 in UK (symptoms>4wks). Until we know the true potential of Omicron to cause chronic illness, kids & their families need to have the option of protection by both mitigations & vaccines.
The ONS estimates released yesterday showed a sharp increase in #LongCovidKids to 117,000 in UK (symptoms>4wks). Until we know the true potential of Omicron to cause chronic illness, kids & their families need to have the option of protection by both mitigations & vaccines.
9/9
Sorry 🧵 turned out not too short but just sharing my thoughts. Take care everyone!
Sorry 🧵 turned out not too short but just sharing my thoughts. Take care everyone!
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