Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Fri Jan 7th. 1/
Cases/d yest 6347 a 40.2% incr from last Thurs's 4528. Of course, new pandemic record (until next week) Positivity 38.22% compared with 39.05% yest and 32.90% last Thurs. 2/
Hospitalizations: Inpts: Tues +30 to 429 (revised from 428 yest and 398 Wed) Wed +19 to 448 (revised from 434 yest) Yest -8 to 440 (subject to revision). 7d change to Wed of 34% (yest 36%) ICU Wed -6 to 65 (revised from 64 yest) yest -1 to 64. 3/
Paeds admits 4 including 1 baby in ICU. Deaths 2. 4/
I think everyone in AB needs to see this modelling +understand what it means at a time of increasing HCW sickness.This combination is truly frightening, especially with kids returning to schools, and a severe lack of public health mitigation measures. fin/
Thanks to AB Health and @ArynToombs for the graphics.

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More from @jvipondmd

6 Jan
Here's your AB Covid # analysis for Thurs Jan 6th. 1/
Yest cases/d 4957, a 19.9% incr from last week's 4133. New pandemic record (of course). Positivity 39.05% compared w/ last WEd's 30.46%. New pandemic record (of course). Of the two tests, positivity more accurate for severity of problem. 2/
Hospitalizations: Inpts: Fri -1 to 355 (revised from 354 yest and 353 Tues), Sat +7 to 362 (revised from 359 yest and 357 Tues), Sun +23 to 385 (revised from 379 yest and 375 Tues)), Mon +14 to 399 (revised from 391 yest and 375 Tues). Tues +29 to 428 (revised from 398 yest). 3/
Read 7 tweets
6 Jan
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Jan 5th. 1/
Yest cases/d 4768, a 69% incr from last Tues's 2823. Case positivity 36.92% compared to yest 36.2% and last Tues 30.08%. Both cases/d and positivity acheive new records for the pandemic. 2/
Hospitalizations: Inpts: Fri -1 to 354 (revised from 353 yest), Sat +5 to 359 (revised to 357), Sun +20 to 379 (revised from 375 yest), Mon +16 to 391 (revised from 375 yest). Yest +7 to 398 (subj to revision). 7days up 85 or 27.1% (yest 31.6%). 3/
Read 9 tweets
5 Jan
Here's your AB COViD # analysis for Tues Jan 4th. I'm going to focus on the last 24 hours as the data dump of Dec 29-yesterday is immense. 1/
Yest cases 2976 a 107% rised from 1440. Record cases of 4578 on 30 Dec. Remember these cases immensely underestimate true case rate in the province, thanks to undertesting, changed test criteria, holiday period, RATs being done at home, etc. 2/
7d ave 3479 a 92.4% incr wk over wk from 1808. positivity 36.1% (record for pandemic) compared with 21.86% last Mon. Calgary at 39.8%, Edmonton a close second at 36.93%. 3/
Read 11 tweets
30 Dec 21
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Dec 29th. I'll focus on the last 24 hours, and throw in a whole bunch of caveats, because some of this data is not as useful as it used to be. 1/
Cases/d yest 2800, a new pandemic record, and a % incr over last Tues's 1359. Except this data point is nowhere close as useful to a similar cases/d at any previous time of the pandemic, as evidenced by the record positivity of 29.88% (last Tues 11.89%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts.From a low of 261 on Sat, up +5 to 266 on Sun, +14 to 280 on Mon, and +12 to 292 yest. Not sure how useful this is, b/c it is unclear if all these new admits are pts admitted because of covid, or other reasons and just testing +ve incidentally. 3/
Read 9 tweets
29 Dec 21
Next big debate in Alberta is whether schools should open again in 6 days. It's a tough one, balancing the role of schools in contributing to community spread, and longCOVID in kids, vs. equity with challenges in keeping kids at home for many parents 1/
Yesterday Premier Kenney continued to promote the myth that "in-class transmission has not been a major source of community transmission in Alberta and elsewhere" (timestamp 33:01) 2/
In reality the 4th #intentionallycruelwave was driven entirely by the unvaccinated in the 5-11 age group, as seen by AB Health's data. And we enter the January school period with most of these kids unvaccinated, still only 34% with one shot, inadequate protection for omicron. 3/
Read 7 tweets
22 Dec 21
It's time for a little walk down the path called "what wave is this?". About naming the 3rd, 4th, and now 5th waves. And why it's important. 1/
it began with the 3rd wave. Our leaders oblivious despite having evidence from previous waves of how exponential growth worked, making it predictable, and how to stop it through mitigation policies, making it preventable. #predictableandpreventablewave. 2/
Then the fourth wave. The attempt to cause herd immunity by allowing it to run rampant through our population, especially the kids. And h/t to @sarahkendzior and @AndreaChalupa for pointing out that cruelty is the purpose. The #intentionallycruelwave 3/
Read 14 tweets

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