In 1987, he sang “Heroes” in a landmark concert at the wall in West Berlin.
He said, “We send our wishes to all our friends who are on the other side of the wall!”
1000’s of East Berliners couldn’t see — but they could hear. They cheered and shouted “The wall must go!”
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“God, even now I get choked up,” Bowie later recalled. “It was breaking my heart. I’d never done anything like that in my life, and I guess I never will again.”
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When Bowie died in 2016, one tribute came from an unexpected source: the German Foreign Ministry, which thanked him for his role in bringing down the Wall — and included a link to his concert.
“The Wall moved Bowie and changed him .. He captured and defined its quintessence, speaking for, even embodying, a confused generation that had lost hope in ideals and dreams.”
“The S&P GSCI U.S. Commodity Price Index has been declining for more than a month; it has fallen 10% since October 24th—marking its largest drop of the recovery. This has left commodity prices essentially unchanged for the last five months ..” @LeutholdGroup
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“Industrial prices are off by almost 12% from recovery highs, and rather than surging as they did earlier in the recovery, they have also been trending sideways looking back to early May!”
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“The Baltic Freight Rate Index has collapsed since early October, leaving shipping rates virtually unchanged (like industrial com- modity prices), measured back to May.”
MORGAN STANLEY: in a 90-page report, says, “The workforce is about to meaningfully change. ..
..”Pre-COVID, about ~5% of [office] employees worked from home [3 or more days per week], whereas our survey suggests this number could grow 4-5x.”
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Big implications for IT budgets, as companies reconfigure their networks. Nearly 1/4 say they’ll boost spending by 10%+.
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“.. we come away from this survey even more bullish on the PC market as we now see a reopening/return to the office as a clear tailwind to commercial PC demand. As a result, we.. significantly raise our PC market forecast and now estimate PC shipments grow 16.5% Y/Y in 2021”
JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)
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Same goes for various countries, adds JPM. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented..”
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More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”
Goldman has an 80-pg report on #COVID19’s impact on the music business — including an estimated 75% decline in live music revenue this year.
Encouragingly, they see a return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022, led by “Gen Z/ Millennial demand” and artists’ need for income
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(2/x) it’s well understood that artists command a higher share of live-music income vs. recorded, but this chart really lays it out
(3/x) Goldman says recorded music will be the beneficiary — as streaming revenue booms, and as performance revenues are “affected by a significant decline in royalties from public use (concerts, bars, restaurants, gyms) ..”
JPMORGAN: “We believe we’ve seen a peak in new case growth in the US 3-4 days ago,.. deaths will peak in about a week, so we look for a limited reopening of the economy in 1-2 weeks. .. And we think we will be able to recover the losses in equities sometime next year” (Kolanovic)
JPMORGAN: We are overweight equities because global stocks have declined “around 35% on average, and we’ve seen significant de-rating and a positioning flush. .. The near-term economic hit will be horrendous, but investors will focus on 2021 and even 2022.” (Lakos-Bujas)
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JPMORGAN: “Every recession typically accelerates pre-existing trends, such as work-from-home or a preference for online retail.. This will increasingly challenge traditional business models.. Looking ahead, ‘winner takes all’ is bound to remain the dominant theme within equities”