A virus isn't endemic just cos a govt minister says it is and just cos people want it to be.

The current pattern of waning vax, new immune evasive variants, and minimal public health response seem set to doom us to massive surges once or twice a year. 1\5
If that continues we'll keep picking off the vulnerable, keep stressing a weakening NHS, create more chronic illness & mass disruption through people off sick every time. Lower quality of life for all of us.

Uncertainty in being able to plan months ahead cos of variants 2\5
And when the next pandemic comes, do we just add that disease to our repertoire after a period of mass death?

What when diseases like malaria move north through climate change?

What about rest of the world?

We're moving backwards. 3\5
We've spent 150+ years trying (mostly successfully) to suppress disease. In Europe, we have massively reduced or eliminated cholera, scarlet fever, measles, TB, polio, smallpox, whooping cough, typhoid, mumps, rubella.

We've also *greatly* reduced flu in last 25 years. 4\5
We did it through mass programmes to bring clean water to people, to improve housing & working conditions, mass vaccination. We invested in enabling better health for everyone.

And now we're giving up cos we're bored & it's hard?

Bodes ill for climate change & our future. 5\5

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More from @chrischirp

7 Jan
THREAD on UK Covid situation:

TLDR: not over yet. Good news is high booster coverage in over 50s & no rise in ICU. Bad news is high strain on hospitals, no plan for schools & worsening admissions & long covid for kids.

+ Indie Sage has some suggestions...

1/21
Firstly Omicron - now dominant in Scotland, Wales & England. Probably in NI but no recent data. N Ireland is about week behind other nations.

Omicron dominant in all English regions, London c. 1 week ahead.

Omicron's rise has been very rapid! 2/21
Omicron is v good at infecting vaxxed people - even being boosted only gives you about 40% protection after 10 weeks.

Booster gives *88%* protection against hospital admission - GET IT!

NB booster hosp protection for Delta was close to 100%, Omicron has made things worse. 3/21
Read 23 tweets
2 Jan
I rarely quote tweet but this is not right.

Firstly, it's airborne - that means aerosols are as important as droplets.

That means masks and ventilation are crucial steps and both necessary.

Second, there is excellent evidence on masks in schools: 1/4
Read 6 tweets
30 Dec 21
THREAD on England & Omicron and what is going on.

My take on it.

TLDR: things are pretty bad and I'm sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of hopium. 1/18
First off cases... reported levels in England now more than twice as high as previous peak last January and more than three times higher than at start of December.

Latest numbers reflect infections *before* Christmas mixing.

These numbers are an underestimate.

2/18
Positivity rates are also rising v steeply - testing is not keeping up with cases.

All regions rising fast, London highest and earliest. Do not take London small case drop too seriously - drop in pre xmas tests & positivity still rising. Plus xmas likely to boost again. 3/18
Read 19 tweets
29 Dec 21
I wrote this with @adsquires because next term is coming quickly and we need to plan for how to *minimise* infection in kids & teachers and *minimise* disruption to education.

Govt still not doing anything - so this thread summarises what I am afraid will happen:

1/9
We've recorded over *1.2 million* infections in 5-14 yr olds in England since 1 Sept 2021. The real number will be much higher.

Over 2,500 6-17 year olds have been admitted to hospital with Covid since then too and ten 5-14 yr olds have died due to Covid. 2/9
Thousands more children are reporting long covid through ONS infection survey.

V big disruption to education, with 1000s of children missing school every day & teachers off sick.

Hardly any under 12s & *fewer than half* of 12-15 yr olds have received a single vaccine dose. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
24 Dec 21
Was going to do a quick pre-xmas thread on where we are but SAGE minutes from their meeting yesterday covers all my points!

So here is a whistestop tour of the main bits

Omicron Growth might be slowing, but only from ~2 day doubling to ~3 day doubling. So still growing fast.
Not clear why growth is slowing: likely combo of more cautious behaviours, Plan B (e.g. work from home), moving to different age groups, more reluctance to test
Number of people in hospital with Omicron doubling every 4 to 5 days – this is rapid and so far they are younger. Also increases in transmission within hospitals. SAGE expects large increase in admissions as older people get infected over Christmas ☹
Read 9 tweets
21 Dec 21
THREAD on cases, hospital admissions and why so many scientists & NHS leaders are worried.

Case study of London - and what is behind the alarm!

1/10
The key bit is that it takes about 10-14 days from infection to needing hospital. And if you have symptoms, you'll probably test positive 4-7 days into infection.

So there's roughly a week from testing positive to becoming a hospital admission. 2/10
So - cases in London have risen *very steeply* - but *mainly* in the last week. And only in the most recent week has Omicron been dominant.

But cases to 19 Dec (incomplete!) are already more than double previous week. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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