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Jan 9, 2022 โ€ข 20 tweets โ€ข 9 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - 01/09/2022

1/14

Market players returned from ๐Ÿ•Ž๐ŸŽ„๐ŸŽ‰ buying value and oil โ†—๏ธ and selling growth and duration โ†˜๏ธ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/14

Roiled by #FOMC minutes (nothing new) mid-week, players bid up $VXN and sold $COMPQ.

$VXN 65 +21% - $COMPQ -4.53%
$RVX +13.31% - $IWM -2.87%
$VIX 18.76 +8.94% - $SPX -1.87%

Chart: $COMPQ -4.44% (t) +2.44% (T)
2a/14

Chart: $VXN accelerates to the ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿชฃ
3/14

Large cap value beat growth by 5.53% on the week

Charts: $SPYV +1.05% compared to $SPYG -4.48% - both remain โ™‰๏ธ but growth is now ๐Ÿป trade.
4/14

On the US Sector level, this manifested with energy and financials ๐Ÿš€

Top sectors
$XLE +10.52% โ™‰๏ธ
$XLF +5.43%
$XLI +0.64%

Decemberโ€™s winners โ†˜๏ธ
$XLRE -4.9%
$XLV -4.64%
$XLK -4.57%

Chart: $XLE at a 52-week high on volume โ†—๏ธ
4a/14

โ€œWho gets you out?"

Chart: $XLF +7.19% over past 3 weeks
4b/14

The home construction sub-sector ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จโ€™d

Chart: $ITB -9.25% for the week!
5/14

France ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท โ†—๏ธ led major international markets

$CAC +0.93%
$HSI +0.41%
$DAX +0.4%
$KOSPI -0.76%
$NIKK -1.07%
$SSEC -1.66%

Chart: $EEM +0.1% remains in a ๐Ÿ“‰ -3.8% over (T) duration
6/14

Top country ETFs โ†—๏ธ

$INDA +2.81%
$IDX +2.57%
$EWU +2.53%
$EWP +2.02%

Biggest losers โ†˜๏ธ
$EDEN -4.41%
$EWZ -2.85%
$RSX -2.66%

Chart: $EWP - time to buy ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ +8.2% over the past 3 weeks but -3.63% (T)?
7/14

UST yields ๐Ÿš€ to cycle highs #TaperTantrum2022
10/2s 89.6 BPS ๐Ÿป #steepener

MOVE 74.69 โ†˜๏ธ

2Y .870% +14.6 BPS
5Y 1.504 +24.1 BPS
10Y 1.755 +25.4 BPS
30Y 2.117 +21.2 BPS

Chart: $TNX breaking out to cycle highs โ†—๏ธ
8/14

With #TaperTantrum2022 bond ETFs ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จโ€™d

$TLT -4.0%
$CWB -3.93%
$BNDD -3.33%
$TIP -2.3%
$LQD -2.11%
$IEF -1.97%
$IVOL -1.42%
$BND -1.4%
$HYG -1.31%
$BNDX -0.69%

Chart: $TLT went from โ™‰๏ธ to neutral (T) +0.27%
9/14

Metals โ†˜๏ธ did not care too much for #RealYields โ†—๏ธ

$SILVER -4.03%
$GOLD -1.71%
$COPPER -1.12%
$PLAT -1.0%

Chart: $SILVER unable to hold โ™‰๏ธ (T) -1.28%
9a/14

Chart: Aluminum and zinc lifted $DBB โ†—๏ธ +1.21% (w), +7.44% (t) and +4.16% (T)
9b/14

Chart: $GDX -6.31% broke bad, resuming ๐Ÿป (T) -1.57%
10/14

๐Ÿ›ข and โ›ฝ๏ธ continued the โ™‰๏ธ ๐Ÿƒ๐Ÿพโ€โ™‚๏ธ

$WTIC +4.91%
$BRENT +5.34%
$GASO +3.6%
$NATGAS +5.09%

Chart: $BRENT is +25% off the December 2 #omicron low
11/14

Grain #dispersion with $CORN and $SOYB continuing their โ™‰๏ธ ๐Ÿƒ๐Ÿพโ€โ™‚๏ธ

$SOYB +5.3%
$CORN +2.28%
$WHEAT -1.59%
$SUGAR -4.5%

Chart: $SUGAR not so sweet -8.42% (t), -11.04% (T)
11a/14

Sugar may cost less but your โ˜•๏ธ costs โž•๐Ÿ’ฐ

Chart: $COFFEE +5.48% for the 1st week of 2022
12/14

The $USD โฌ†๏ธโฌ‡๏ธ for the week

$USD +0.14%
$GBP +0.52%
$AUD -1.24%
$EUR -0.15%
$USDCAD -0.08%
$USDCHF +0.72%
$USDJPY +0.41%

Chart: After a +4.0% 3-week rally off the December 3 low, $AUD resumes ๐Ÿ“‰
13/14

No global macro review would be complete without at least mentioning #CryptoCrash22

"Could I sell you my #NFTs, bro?"

Chart: $BTC is โฌ‡๏ธ > 38% since the November 9 high
14/14

Choosing to position for #Quad4 in Q2, I took the other side of the trade ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จโ€™d

At least I know I did not pay top prices for $TLT $XLRE $XHB $XLU $XLV, but now I have a #RiskManagement problem

#CPI on tap Wednesday

Have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ week!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Jun 8
Miss a day, miss a lot
(Took Friday off to ๐Ÿšดโ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿšด๐Ÿšดโ€โ™‚๏ธ with no ๐Ÿ“ถ)

The positioning unwind in SOX | SMH | XLK | QQQ was also accompanied by a weekly VIX buy ๐Ÿšจ

With WTIC ๐Ÿ”บ TNX ๐Ÿ”บ USD ๐Ÿ”บ and GOLD taking out yearly open, โš ๏ธ is warranted

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
Asia ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จ'd as money rotates out of KOSPI in anticipation of SPCX ๐Ÿš€ IPO

NIKK 64096 -3.75%
SSEC 3959 -1.7%
HSI 24657 -1.2%
KOSPI 7484 -8.3% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿฉธ
IDX 5365 -4.1%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
ASX 8625 -0.7%

Bharat โ†˜๏ธ
BSE 73597 -0.85%
Europe under pressure ๐Ÿ“‰

VSTOXX 20.69 ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”บ

DAX range = 24401 - 25555 โ™‰๏ธ
FEZ range = 65.77 - 69.08 โ™‰๏ธ

DAX 24584 -0.85%
FTSE 10344 -0.25%
CAC 8170 -0.6%
AEX 1038 -0.3%
IBEX 18242 -0.55%
MIB 48874 -0.05%
SMI 13312 -0.55%
MOEX 2555 -0.2$
Read 13 tweets
Jan 2
2026 Global Macro Outlook

1/12 ๐Ÿงต

The key themes driving 2026 financial markets:

โ€ข AI Productivity Boom
โ€ข Inflation๐Ÿ”ป U3 ๐Ÿ”บ andย FOMC
โ€ข OB3 = running it hotย โ™จ๏ธ
โ€ข IEEPA Tariff Decision
โ€ข Midterms and the Affordability Crisis
โ€ข Energy Policy
โ€ข 4th Turning Dynamics
โ€ข Bubbling Generational Conflicts
โ€ข Quantum Computing

Letโ€™s dig into each theme
2/12

AI Productivity Boom ๐Ÿ’ฅ

2026 is the year when AI will begin to make a noticeable impact on productivity and corporate profits. Firms will begin to deploy agentic AI at scale, realizing significant productivity improvement - at the expense of employment and demanding a full range of energy sources.

Expect unemployment (U3) to tick higher to 4.8% by 2Q 26 along with energy commodities $NATGAS, $WTIC, and companies $XLE

Utilities will seek price increases to offset the demand, but rising costs are likely to squeeze margins. $XLU is to be avoided.

We should also expect $NVDA and hyperscalers, particularly $GOOG, to continue to perform well.

Demand for industrial metals should also remain big $DBB $CPER $SLV
3/12

Inflation๐Ÿ”ป U3 ๐Ÿ”บand FOMC

As we close 2025, inflation has started to trend lower with accelerating disinflation in housing and OER.
AI productivity and innovation driven by the lack of skilled labor is likely to keep a lid on employment costs and hiring.

As a result, inflation is likely to decline and U3 is likely to rise (see above)

With stable prices and rising employment, the FOMC will continue to cut rates to what it regards as โ€œneutral,โ€ so it is realistic to expect another -75 bps in cuts in 2026.

This will be supportive to equities (long beta $SPY with bumps along the way) and negative for the $USD, relative to major FX pairs.

Short $UUP, long $EFA and $EEM
Read 12 tweets
Dec 1, 2025
Hello December!
๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Manufacturing PMIs are rolling out across the globe - ๐Ÿ“ฐ ๐Ÿ“ธ they are not pretty

$BTC is resuming it's ๐Ÿ“‰, equities are under pressure, the $JPY is ๐Ÿ”บ vs the $USD (rate cut coming?), and $WTIC +2.04%, and $GOLD is bid

Letโ€™s dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
Asian dispersion โฌ‡๏ธ โฌ†๏ธ to start the week

$NIKK 49316 -1.85% โฌ…๏ธ
$SSEC 3914 +0.65% โฌ…๏ธ
$HSI 26033 +0.65%
$KOSPI 3920 -0.15%
$IDX 8520 +0.15%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 8565 -0.55%

Bharat โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 85642 -0.1%
Europe is mixed in early trade with vol ๐Ÿ”บ

$VSTOXX 17.90 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 22981 - 24133 ๐Ÿป
$FEZ range = 62.32 - 64.23 โ™‰๏ธ

$DAX 23621 -0.9% โฌ…๏ธ
$FTSE 9720 unch
$CAC 8093 -0.3%
$AEX 945 +0.2%
$IBEX 16342 -0.15%
$MIB 43076 -0.65%
$SMI 12860 +0.15%
$MOEX 2683 +0.3% โฌ…๏ธ
Read 11 tweets
Aug 29, 2025
Hello PCE Friday!

PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure

Consensus estimates:
Headline PCE +2.6% y/y, +0.2% m/m
Core PCE +2.9% y/y, +0.3% m/m

With GDP revised higher, PCE today and NFP on 9/05 take on more importance re: rate cuts on 9/17

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
Asia closed a ๐Ÿ’ช month with $SSEC + 7.9%

$NIKK 42717 -0.25%
$SSEC 3858 +0.35%
$HSI 25107 +0.45%
$KOSPI 3186 -0.3%
$IDX 7851 -1.3%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 8973 -0.1%

Bharat โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 80095 unch
Europe limps into month end with DAX neutral trend

$VSTOXX 17.53 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 23646 - 24606 โ†”๏ธ
$FEZ range = 59.76 - 61.98 โ™‰๏ธ

$DAX 23912 -0.6%
$FTSE 9193 -0.25%
$CAC 7715 -0.6%
$AEX 899 -0.45%
$IBEX 14964 -0.95%
$MIB 42272 -0.4%
$SMI 12172 -0.35%
$MOEX 2894 -0.65%
Read 11 tweets
May 6, 2025
Hello Tuesday!

Trump 2.0 induced US economic uncertainly has reached record highs, exceeding even the pandemic

But there is one thing for certain, as the FOMC gathers today, Fed Funds will remain unchanged tomorrow

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
China is back and Asia closed โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 36831 ๐Ÿšซ
$SSEC 3316 +1.15%
$HSI 22663 +0.7%
$KOSPI 2560 +0.1%
$IDX 6901 +1.0%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 8151 -0.1%

Bharat โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 80660 -0.15%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ on PMIs ๐Ÿ”ป

$VSTOXX 20.97 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 21448 - 23841 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 54.20 - 59.30 โ™‰๏ธ

$DAX 23061 -1.15%
$FTSE 8600 +0.05%
$CAC 7685 -0.55%
$AEX 894 -0.25%
$IBEX 13495 -0.15%
$MIB 38348 -0.35%
$SMI 12225 -0.2%
$MOEX 2787 +1.75% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช† Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 7, 2025
Hello Melt Down Monday! ๐Ÿ’ฅ

The Liberation Day celebration continues with the old adage that "the selling will continue until morale improves."

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia absolutely pummeled ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ๐Ÿฉธ๐Ÿฉธ

$NIKK 31187 -7.7%
$SSEC 3097 -7.35%
$HSI 19828 -13.2% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2328 -5.55%
$IDX closed

Australia ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ๐Ÿฉธ
$ASX 7343 -4.25%

Bharat ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ
$BSE 72573 -3.7%
Europe ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ๐Ÿฉธ with ranges being blown out to the downside

$VSTOXX 51.55 โฌ…๏ธ ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

$DAX range = 20167 - 23808 โ™‰๏ธโ“
$FEZ range = 49.21 - 58.37 โ™‰๏ธโ“

$DAX 19408 -6.25%
$FTSE 7686 -4.6%
$CAC 6842 -5.95%
$AEX 792 -5.8%
$IBEX 11686 -6.0%
$MIB 43408 -6.45%
$SMI 10989 -5.35%
$MOEX 2702 -2.85%
Read 11 tweets

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