We're told solar and wind future
But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?
Batteries!
Yet
The US uses 8GWh/minute and has 27.5GWh of battery storage: enough for 3m:24s
2030: 10m:10s
After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels
eia.gov/analysis/studi…
But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?
Batteries!
Yet
The US uses 8GWh/minute and has 27.5GWh of battery storage: enough for 3m:24s
2030: 10m:10s
After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels
eia.gov/analysis/studi…
This is similar to what we see in Europe, with batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030
https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1476929472800727046
This is similar to what we see in Asia, with batteries able to supply just 31 seconds of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030
https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1477955965047689221
Lots of people suggesting we can fix this
Yes, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup
More realistic solar costs are 4-7x higher
from cheap but very unreliable
to very expensive (but less unreliable)
lazard.com/perspective/le…
Yes, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup
More realistic solar costs are 4-7x higher
from cheap but very unreliable
to very expensive (but less unreliable)
lazard.com/perspective/le…
Most people don't appreciate that
most renewables (RE) to date are only possible because they are backed up by modern fossil (MF) fuel tech
(such as Combined Heat and Power, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
most renewables (RE) to date are only possible because they are backed up by modern fossil (MF) fuel tech
(such as Combined Heat and Power, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
People suggest that "it is always windy somewhere", but
1) not sufficient throughput between regions
2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere
depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune
ft.com/content/d53b58…
1) not sufficient throughput between regions
2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere
depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune
ft.com/content/d53b58…
How much are 3-10 minutes of electricity storage?
Not much
Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (11,160minutes)
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Not much
Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (11,160minutes)
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
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