Daily Market Health Stats update time...

I don't think the euphoria will last for weeks. Imho we're close to the end now.

There's been a slight bounce in the top-nine activity led by Creature World, but that has subsided now.
We are still at relatively higher volumes of activity than during the deep bear last quarter, so things are not too bad, at least not yet.

Of course, usual disclaimer that these charts don't predict the future. Something could happen in 1 minute to change the picture.
You can read more about how these charts are calculated here:

I post updates to this every day (as well as other more reflective threads), so please follow if you want to get them, and if you find them useful I'd appreciate some RTs.
Looking at the 6h stacked bar chart, we can see the more detailed, more immediate picture. It's looking ok but not super exciting. The attention has mostly moved away from the top nine.
Here's the 90 day and 45 day views of the top nine, so you can see the trends more easily for yourself. Based on these graphs, it seems like we're definitely not in a bear, but also not really in a bull. Somewhere in between.
My guess as to why, is that some of the profits from the euphoric bull-market-end get cycled back into bluechips. We'll see if that theory is true. If bluechips trend down more sharply once the euphoria is over, that would support this thesis.
For today I thought it might be worth spicing things up by also looking at some other datasets than just the top 9. The 2 other datasets I look at are what I called the Zeneca "old" and "new" sets, both taken from @Zeneca_33's daily floor stats docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The Zeneca Old dataset, which reflects the performance of projects that were mostly started in August and early September, is... not looking particularly hopeful. It seems to have followed the bluechips in trending down recently.
The Zeneca New data set includes newer projects but not the latest alien poodles that are pumping randomly as influencers shill them. It also looks fairly meh, with a correction happening.
This feels like conclusive evidence, to me, that what's pumping is mostly very recent garbage projects. There is the odd exception that is doing reasonably well in these data sets, but on the whole they're not seeing much increased activity.
So, the TL;DR:

- We're not in a deep bear
- We're also not in a mega bull
- We're probably somewhere in between, at the end of a bull run

My experience is that bull runs are usually followed by corrections. I could be wrong about this. Draw your own conclusions.

gm&gl

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More from @swombat

11 Jan
Anatomy of a good whitelist flip

Yesterday, I minted a @pxquest adventurer for 0.125+gas and flipped it half an hour later for 0.6+gas.

In a bear market (which we're likely heading into), WL flips are one of the main ways to make money from trading.

So how do they happen?

👇
The first thing you need to be able to do a WL flip, of course, is to be on the WL for the project.

There are many ways to do this. Some people grind in countless discords all day. Some people just find out about new projects really early.
Some people hire other ppl to grind for them (because who has the time to get to Level 30 - a requirement I've seen!). Some people are just well connected. Some people are parts of alpha groups that get them WL spots. That last one is me.
Read 36 tweets
11 Jan
Daily Market Health Update

TL;DR: Volumes continue to trend down.

I'm also not hearing as much about doodle derivatives pumping, in the alpha groups I'm in, which is supportive of the thesis that the euphoric phase is dying or dead.

Still not quite a bear market... yet.

👇 Image
If you want to know how those stats are calculated, please check this thread: . If you want to get this update daily, follow me. If you'd like to get these graphs twice daily on your alpha Discord, get in touch (see swombat.io)
First let's look at the top nine on a shorter timeframe. There, the volume trend is clearly down. This is true whether you exclude Pudgies (1st chart), include them (2nd chart), or substitute them for Doodles. ImageImageImage
Read 13 tweets
10 Jan
Why is volume a good indicator to watch in NFTs?

What moves the price of NFTs?

What is the fundamental behaviour and psychology behind those price shifts?

Let's break down the dynamics of NFT pricing a bit and figure out why.

👇
Credit where it's due, I got the idea to look at volume from some of @NFTLlama's earliest videos and posts. He suggested that a project that went through the mint hype drop, had a period of decrease, and then managed to create a spike of interest, was well placed to have another.
Volume, in that context, was a proxy for "the team is still working hard and is able to drive attention to the project", which was a proxy for "the project has good chances of succeeding at drawing even more attention to it and therefore going up."
Read 53 tweets
9 Jan
Daily market health update

Current status: late bull euphoria

IMHO.

I could be wrong about this, of course... but having lived through the late bull euphoria in September, I get a sense of déjà-vu... been here before. Image
Btw, if you want more info on how these are calculated, check this thread: - and follow me for daily updates and commentary on these stats.
Now I don't want to sound like some kind of perma-bear. And I'm not. I was (on @Llamaverse_) cheering the incoming bull market as the graphs started to trend up back in mid December. I'm not trying to throw cold water on everyone.

But... Image
Read 25 tweets
8 Jan
Market health stats time!

Let's start with the end: things are *not* looking good momentum-wise.

The early indicators did work, I think. Volumes are generally down. As volumes go down, the market turns more red. Did you pull out of your more risky bets? Image
Yesterday there was uncertainty as to whether to keep including Pudgies in the ranking given their "artificial" volume. The Pudgy saga continues, but even including them, the original "top ten" volume is down. Here's with and without Pudgies: ImageImage
It looks better if you include Pudgies of course, because they still have some volume going through, which makes sense since they just (insanely imho) got bought for 750 eth: Image
Read 14 tweets
5 Jan
For the last few days, you can't throw a rock without hitting a youtuber talking about the amazing bull market we're in.

But are we really in a bull market? And can we tell when it ends so we're not the last ones standing when the music stops?

Enter the Market Health Index.

👇
At the end of the last proper bull run (in September), I found myself overexposed to projects that had.. let's say, poor prospects. I degen'ed into them because lol wtf right?

And that works out often enough in a bull market but it's terrible when the bull run ends.
Since then, I've wished for some kind of signal that can better inform me about the state of the market. In particular, the critical signal I want to have is:

I want to know when the music is about to stop, so I am not the one left standing without a chair.
Read 46 tweets

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