Thread by @swombat

Daily Market Health Update

TL;DR: Volumes continue to trend down.

I'm also not hearing as much about doodle derivatives pumping, in the alpha groups I'm in, which is supportive of the thesis that the euphoric phase is dying or dead.

Still not quite a bear market... yet.

👇

If you want to know how those stats are calculated, please check this thread:

https://twitter.com/swombat/status/1478794518745001984

. If you want to get this update daily, follow me. If you'd like to get these graphs twice daily on your alpha Discord, get in touch (see swombat.io)

First let's look at the top nine on a shorter timeframe. There, the volume trend is clearly down. This is true whether you exclude Pudgies (1st chart), include them (2nd chart), or substitute them for Doodles.

I found it interesting to look at the other two datasets, Zeneca Old and Zeneca New, yesterday. Here's Zeneca Old. It's also trending down, very sharply. Volume there is almost down to bear market levels. I expect prices to follow.

Zeneca New, which is more recent projects (see docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… for the full breakdown) is no better: also down to bear market volumes.

Trying to read the tea leaves and guess what might have caused this - I don't know, of course, but I imagine the high gas these last couple of days might have been a factor.

Whatever the cause, though, volumes across _everything I track_ is trending down.

Just for the completeness of the picture, here's the stacked bar chart for the top nine. It confirms the same conclusion as the market health stats of course, since one is built on the other, but it is more immediate and sensitive to quick changes:

As a reminder, the charts just show what *is* happening. They:
- don't explain why it's happening
- don't predict what will happen next

Maybe tomorrow Obama, the Pope and Xi Jinping will all buy apes and the market will go into a frenzy. 🤷

Talking of Xi Jinping, there has been a lot of talk of Asian, possibly chinese investors, getting into the NFT market and bringing new money in. That may well have contributed to this last pump.

Back in Dec I heard rumours of a ppt about apes circulated to asian investors.

If so, what the data shows is that either:
1) the new money has been absorbed by the market and there's no more coming in
or
2) it's still coming but going into other projects than those in the Zeneca floor stats

Some ppl have rightly commented that this market health index will get out of date as the market dynamics change. I agree. So I see my job as partly adjusting the index as things evolve to keep it relevant.

So I'll be looking into useful tweaks (and I'm still working on that price shift tracking chart as an additional, if a bit more laggy, signal to report).

TL;DR: Not in bear yet in the top nine. Possibly entering bear in the rest of the market. Euphoria appears to have died down. The top nine volume signal seems to have worked exactly as designed.

Did you act on it and let go of some riskier projects? lmk

gm & gl