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10 Jan, 22 tweets, 9 min read
THE STATE OF THE CRYPTO MARKET:

A thread of all the bullish and bearish information you could possibly desire right now.

Use it to make the right decision, anon.πŸ‘‡
I spent the morning aggregating all of the information from the smartest, most followed people I know on twitter.

Many are in disagreement, but there's plenty to learn in these volatile time periods.

$BTC is what most are watching right now. Altcoins will respond accordingly.
1. THE BEARS

A lot of traders are very bearish at the moment, suggesting drops and liquidations to dismal prices.

$BTC might do the best, then $ETH, then everything else.

But the following market participants think dollars are the best thing to hold.
Crypto trading firm QCP is short now and will get even shorter/bearish below 40k, citing that the deepest market fear isn't even here yet.

(Cont)

"In the bigger picture, it seems likely that the all-time-highs in BTC + ETH will remain capped for most of 2022 as a result of central bank tightening."
This is probably more meme than fact, but @altcoingordon is just gonna sell everything.
Here's the founder of The Daily Gwei and ethhub.io prepping his followers for a major $ETH nuke.
But he tweeted about a 10k Ethereum just five days ago:
And @pentosh1 is bearish on alts, predicting a local low for $BTC dominance.

Which would lead to a bounce for Bitcoin against alts.

Which would lead to major pain for alt holders.
2. THE BULLS
While @Pentosh1 is bearish on alts, he's bullish on $BTC:
And @BarrySilbert is predicting new capital inflows from whales/institutions.

Three Arrows Capital (3AC) is more bullish now than I've ever seen them, but maybe they're worried about getting found out and looking for exit liquidity.

FWIW, they're posting about investing in both $NEAR and NFTs now, which is new, I think.
So @zhusu is asking for good vibes to keep the bull market rolling:
While his cofounder @kyleldavies predicts an L1 supercycle:
Here's a $BTC thesis, correctly called, played out over three months by TA trader @BigCheds.

The chronology:

β€’ Futures ETF
β€’ Pump to ATH
β€’ Dip to 40k
β€’ The formation of an ascending triangle to $100k, the holy land

But even $40k is looking dicey right now.
For some more $BTC bullishness, @hyblockcapital published this chart showing a lack of open interest between the mid 40s and the high 40s.

Which means while we fell through quickly from 46k to 43k, we might rip straight back up through that range as well.
I found this graphic quite helpful for exploring altcoins, as I tend to believe money will flow back to cash flow and 'fundamental value' during contractions like this one.
Looking for some trade ideas to deploy some capital?

@satsdart is buying CS:GO skins

@rektfoodfarmer is buying up ultra-cheap $FTM ecosystem plays

@tetranode is pumping $DPX

@hasufl is working on flashbots (possibly bearish?)

and @willclemente is buying spot $BTC
Maybe, the real takeaway is that, in times like these, no one really knows anything.

I hope you enjoyed this thread.

If you like to read threads like these, please give me a follow: @jackniewold.

And if you like to read longer-form content around altcoin investing, check out my email newsletter: cryptopragmatist.com/sign-up-twitte…
And please do me a favor by giving this thread a fav/RT.

It helps my work get out to more people, I've linked it below. πŸ‘‡

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More from @JackNiewold

Jack Niewold Profile picture
11 Jan
ve(3,3) could change DeFi forever.

@andrecronje, @danielesesta, and @FantomFDN have banded together to create a new, secretive, and highly anticipated project.

Here's a thread of everything we know (and some speculation) on the protocol:

Also, how to play the trade: πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
THE TOKEN: Currently referred to as ve(3,3), it's speculated from the below (censored) image that it will be called 'SOLID'.

It will use the same:

β€’ 've' (vote escrow) mechanics as protocols like Convex and Curve
β€’ staking/dilution mechanics (3,3) as OlympusDAO. Image
Vote Escrow: locking for longer periods of time gives you higher rewards and a larger share in voting the governance of the protocol.

But you have to lock and thus cannot sell your tokens

( $CVX and $CRV )

If you're confused, check out this thread:
Read 17 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
10 Jan
(1/4) If you didn't catch it, $SPELL just added two 0%-interest lending markets, $wBTC and $wETH

I see this as a move meant to help the protocol sustain itself through bearish times.

$BTC and $ETH are the hardiest, most downside-resistant assets in a bear market.
(2/4) So people are willing to borrow against them even in bearish times.

As long as Abracadabra can sustain TVL it can continue to be valuable.

And while demand for leverage dries up in a bear market, *hopefully* these two assets can drive new borrowing demand.
(3/4) But that demand is far from dried up, for now.

Despite market-wide liquidations, there is still plenty of demand for both $UST and $sSpell borrowing 'cauldrons'.

Despite a $1 billion lending market for $UST, it remains very much in demand with just $1800 available.
Read 4 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
5 Jan
I've been doing a deep dive on Fantom πŸ‘» over the last month and I'm convinced the token is undervalued.

But what if it's not just $FTM that's trading at an undervaluation?

What if it's the entire Fantom dApp ecosystem?

Here's why DeFi on $FTM will moon in 2022:πŸ‘‡

(thread)
A straightforward way to understand crypto assets is Total Value Locked: the $ value of assets tied up in a given protocol.

TVL might not predict a price pump, but it can tell you if a protocol is over/undervalued compared to peers.

And believe me, Fantom DeFi is undervalued:
Here's a look at Fantom DeFi apps compared to their Ethereum counterparts, all measured in terms of Mkt Cap/TVL.

These apps are direct copies of Ethereum apps, but they're trading at a discount relative to TVL.

(All except Cream/Scream)
Read 12 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
29 Dec 21
The Curve Wars are in full tilt.

The early skirmishes are being fought.

Here's everything you need to know about $CRV and $CVX (Convex), the war between protocols to accumulate them, and how you can make money on the trade.

(A thread in 3 parts) πŸ‘‡
PART 1: THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM

DEXes rely on Automated Market Makers (AMMs) to function.

These AMMs rebalance with every crypto swap/trade. With every sale, price goes down.

The more liquidity in the liquidity pool, the better, as price doesn't slip/rebalance as much.
This is important for any crypto asset, as illiquid pairs mean buyers and sellers get a worse deal.

You sometimes see this when buying microcaps. DEXes ask you to adjust slippage tolerance, which basically means the price of your asset is changing due to your trade.
Read 20 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
28 Dec 21
Investing in crypto is about understanding narratives: time the narratives, ride the trade, and benefit from the momentum of an inefficient market discovering value.

Here are the narratives that will shape crypto and mint millionaires in 2022:

(THREAD)πŸ‘‡
1. The L1 Trade Continues

The explosive growth of non-eth L1s is not a fad, $ETH dominance is not a given.

Devs and users continue to embrace new chains in the hopes of being early.

@TaschaLabs outlines the dilemma of just rotating back to $ETH below:

We've already seen the second phase of this trade begin: check out this chart of L1 performance since the $BTC peak in November.

Most L1s tracking $BTC, $ETH flat, but tokens like $NEAR, $LUNA, and $AVAX pumping.

Understanding these rotations and riding them will be vital.
Read 12 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
22 Dec 21
I've officially been redpilled on Fantom ( $FTM )

Here's a thread on:

β€’ Why I think it's undeniably undervalued
β€’ How it could do a 5-10x in the next leg of the bull market

Check it out πŸ‘‡
Non-ethereum Layer 1s (L1s) have been pumping over the last six months, with $AVAX, $SOL, $LUNA, and $BNB all going crazy.

The L1 you DON'T hear about? Fantom, which has been quietly following in their footsteps at a fraction of the market cap.
What does Fantom accomplish that ETH-killers don't already do?

It scales: Fantom operates on a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), giving it best-in-class time to finality.

It's also compatible with the EVM, so it plays nice with AVAX, BSC, MATIC, and ETH

Read 14 tweets

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