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Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
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10 Jan, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Prepare for bidding wars and intense RE buyer competition this spring. The early data is in and it's crazier than I expected.

Inventory is at a new record low, 292,000 single family homes on the market. But that's not the real story this week.

@AltosResearch 📽️🧵👇

1/6
The big news is how fast the Price of the New Listings jumped this week (light red line here). PNL captures what sellers already know about demand in their market.

This year's jump is higher, faster than we expected.

These are prices for *future* transactions.

2/6
Another leading indicator: Price increases for homes that we saw on the market last fall. Compare to January of 2019 after a year of rising rates in 2018, price increases were muted with demand.

Price increases are spiking again like last year. 🔥😮
Prepare for bidding wars
3/6
We're always on the lookout for signals that maybe buyers are fed up. But the immediate sales tracker sure doesn't show any signs of slowing either. 25% of the new listings going into contract essentially immediately this week.

4/6
This week's video has all the details.
"Bidding wars on the horizon for spring 2022 real estate market"

9 mins. Don't miss!

5/6
Also Altos January webinar!
All the current and leading data. Interest rates and inflation scenarios, plus local markets.

If you're a real estate pro, you should definitely join us because the market is moving insanely quickly.

Register here:
bit.ly/altos-jan2022-…

6/6
you can always catch the Altos videos and data on the Altos blog too:

7/6 🤓
blog.altosresearch.com/real-estate-bi…

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More from @mikesimonsen

Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
6 Dec 21
Big drop in available inventory post Thanksgiving holiday. Down to just 350,000 existing single family homes on the market.

Man, 2022 sure is shaping up to be competitive again for buyers. No relief anywhere in sight.

This week's @AltosResearch video has the details🧵📽️👇

1/7
Buyers still gobbling up available homes as quickly as they can. 17,000 immediate sales last week.

The far right end bar in this chart shows our holiday. This week will bounce back a bit, but volumes mostly lower though New Years.

2/7
Price reductions are lower than normal because demand is not abating. Still only 27% of homes have had price reductions.

Tight supply / high demand dynamic appears to be with us until something major in the economy changes.

3/7
Read 8 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
8 Nov 21
Help me flesh out (and name) a phenomenon I'm observing?

Postulate: In the social media universe, ALL political/social positions must evolve to where both sides can look at the same underlying data and claim justification.
example 1: covid data. Infection and death rates are evidence that...

A) We have had too many protections and restrictions
or
B) Protections and restrictions have been justified
example 2: inflation. The current inflation rate is evidence that...

A) we're overspending, panic
or
B) we're solving problems, celebrate
Read 5 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
8 Nov 21
Surprise! Inventory of homes for sale is actually falling faster than expected for this time of year.

Down to just over 400,000 single family homes on the market. Inventory fell by 3% this week.

This week's thread and video with the #altosresearch real estate data
🧵👇
1/6
Demand is staying elevated even as supply shrinks for the holidays. One place to see that is in our Immediate Sales tracker. Still 25% of the new listings of homes for sale are going into contract essentially immediately each week, even as total volume ticks down.

2/6
Another place to see demand strong relative to supply is in the Altos Research Market Action Index. See how the readings have actually been ticking up this fall, when normally they'd be flat to down.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
6 Sep 21
Home buyers tapping into late summer opportunities!

Even as inventory ticks up this week, prices are holding strong. Median home price in the US this week is $389,000, unchanged from a week ago.

Weekly @AltosResearch US real estate market data thread and video 🧵👇

1/6
We're looking at 10% annual price gains as we wrap summer. You can see the market has cooled down from the insanity of April.

In a few months the lagging measures of home prices, like the Case Shiller will catch up with the Altos data here.

2/6
Inventory rose this week. Up 1.4% to 437,000 unsold single family homes. Even though the 2021 cycle has shifted later by a month, it's likely we're roughly at peak inventory.

Still 25% fewer homes available than last year, but up 42% from the bottom.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
23 Aug 21
Available inventory of unsold single family homes jumped another 2.2% this week. What the heck is going on? Time to panic? Time to celebrate?

Check out this week's #altosresearch thread and video for the details. Video link below

🧵👇

1/6
Just a few weeks ago I expected inventory to top out at 400,000. We're well past that now and not slowing down. Lots of new sellers hitting the market.

Will we peak at 460,000 in September? 500k in October? Will we end the year with more inventory than we started?

2/6
On the demand side, we can see that buyers are still aggressive even as inventory builds. Our immediate sales tracker hasn't backed off at all.

23% of the 105,000 new listings went into contract within hours or just days of hitting the market.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mike Simonsen 🐉 Profile picture
26 Jul 21
Another big pop in available inventory this week.

Are these the distressed sellers everyone's been anticipating for over a year?

Here's this week's #altosresearch look at the US real estate market. Thread and video:

🧵👇

1/7
Inventory rose to 402,000 unsold single family homes. That's a 3.2% climb on top of last week's 4%.
Just last week I said we'd peak below 400k in August. Oops.
But - is it a surge of sellers or cooling buyers?

2/7
Our Immediate Sales tracker has the insight. Of the 104,000 new listings this week. 21,000 of them sold immediately. That's the fewest in months, meaning more stayed unsold. Still crazy high, just slightly less crazy.

But, it's not a surge of distressed sellers.
3/7
Read 7 tweets

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