As an $IAC shareholder, I was curious about $TURO IPO (IAC owns ~27% of TURO) and was glancing through the S-1. Some quick notes.
What is TURO?
"Turo is the world’s largest car sharing marketplace where guests can book any car they want"
2/10 ~85k active hosts and ~160k active vehicle listings as of 3Q'21
Insurance is included for the trip.
"Since April 2020, every trip booked on our platform automatically generates a proprietary Turo Risk Score"
3/10 "As of September 30, 2021, we have collected data from over 23 million Days, 5.5 million transactions, 2.2 billion miles driven, and 10 years of claims data since inception to inform our proprietary Turo Risk Score algorithms and use more than 50 data inputs per…
4/10 …transaction."
Turo defines TAM (~$230 Bn) as trips over 30 miles which is just ~5% of the trips but ~27% of the total miles traveled.
Vast majority of vehicles are available only on Turo, and you have car options at all price points.
5/10 ~90% of demand is organic, so not on SEO treadmill.
Economics from the hosts' perspective (Image I and II)
~32% bookings are 7-30 days; ~4% are >30 days. Key metrics are on tear following hiccups during the pandemic. GBV more than doubled in 9M'21 YoY.
6/10 Anatomy of a booking (See image I)
My question is whether ~45% take rate is "a rake too far". Not sure how sustainable this is.
7/10 Not sure I find the explanation about cohort retention consistent. Bit of a question mark for me and difficult to find a consistent interpretation out of these data.
8/10 Already profitable with 23% and 14% operating margins in last 2 Qs; a pleasant respite in a sea of profitless IPO.
The acceleration in the recent quarters is a thing of beauty. Not just topline, the extent of margin improvement will warm every shareholder's heart, lol
I just closed the poll for deep dives in 2022. Some tight calls there, and some interesting data points about my subscribers.
Let me share the poll results in this thread.
2/ My email for the poll went out to ~800 annual subscribers. Open rate for the email was 71.4% and 298 participated in the poll. Pretty decent participation.
3/ Subscriber base for MBI Deep Dives is almost equally divided between individual investors and professional investors.
It's challenging to write for an audience with this level of diversity, but I relish it every month!
1/ Thread: My presentation for Bangladeshi startups
North South University (NSU), a Bangladeshi university, invited me today to talk about financial modeling for the startups they are incubating. I started with a disclaimer that I never built any model for any startup...
2/ So my presentation was largely more qualitative than quantitative.
One of the common misperceptions I think is many believe they just need to be better than the "average" investor to beat the market in the long-term. The reality is very, very different.
Let me explain.
2/6 Imagine 10 people started actively managing their money today. They all have $100. They invest for 30 years and they all generate different return over that period.
Three got completely wiped out. Five people generated between 1% and 5% CAGR.
3/6 Of the initial 10 people, you have 8 of them who have generated anemic returns over 30-yr period.
If you make better than 5%, you will be among the top 20 percentile. You can also *feel* much better than the average investor.
1/ I really enjoyed @GavinSBaker interview with @GnDsville. Many probably already read it, but I wanted to keep some excerpts on my timeline.
Everything below is quotes copied from the interview.
2/ I think a lot of the success I’ve had since then is due to a super lucky decision I made as a very, very young man. And that decision was to not walk away from tech. That may sound like a strange thing to say today, but in 2002, all the great investing minds of my generation..
3/ walked away from tech because they were listening to Buffett.
investing is a game of cumulative knowledge and compounding advantage. And the only reason I didn't listen to Buffett was because of my personal interest in science fiction. That was lucky.
Just when I thought I escaped the recent carnage relatively unscathed, ADSK happened.
-15% AH, and -25% from ATH. Here are my notes.
2/ 3Q topline beat high end of guidance. Overall growth has accelerated a bit this quarter, but based on guidance, unfortunately the acceleration is unlikely to sustain.
3/ All the recent buzzwords here
"While demand is robust, we believe supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage making it harder for our customers to staff new projects and the ebb and flow of COVID are contributing to the deceleration"