Great note from @darioperkins on challenges of analyzing post covid economy:
"Much of the confusion about the current state of the economy has its origin in people trying to
apply classic business-cycle analysis to COVID-19 macro distortions... But this is not a business cycle"
"Much of the confusion about the current state of the economy has its origin in people trying to
apply classic business-cycle analysis to COVID-19 macro distortions... But this is not a business cycle"
"Faulty business-cycle analysis has unduly influenced inflation debate, rapid price gains assumed to be a sign of “overheating”. Yet GDP in most of the world is ~ where it was expected to be in the absence of pandemic... two years ago, the main debate was about a liquidity trap"
"In short, investors must be careful not to infer “new secular growth trends” from what might merely be “levels” effects associated with (and largely confined to) the pandemic."
Full note here
https://twitter.com/darioperkins/status/1481626462222532613
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