Watch for at least a contracting histogram before getting excited about a price reversal.
Price has never gone well inside the weekly Guassian without also continuing to the downside.

Still well of the monthly Gaussian channel, which has functioned as long term support. The positive here is that this channel is rising rapidly.

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More from @davthewave

4 Dec 21
It may not be pretty, but it is technical/ risk analysis. A H&S possibility...
Given that the upward channel now looks broken to the downside, the chart explores a possible scenario going forward.
It wasn't me. My account is tiny compared to some of the others.😬
Read 7 tweets
24 Nov 21
Gives another meaning to 'blow-off top'.😎
Of course, a naive linear/ deterministic mindset will always struggle with the mapping out of various possibilities aka risk management. The paradigm is strong.😎
Read 7 tweets
23 Nov 21
Experimental TA incoming.

Has anyone drawn an ascending triangle yet?

Heavy white dotted lines - connects previous base to the next base and through to the top.Experimental TA incoming.
In this metric, there is room for a higher high [eventually] within the price range as configured.

A theory [however seemingly wacky] gains credence and solidity when predictions made earlier eventuate.

The idea in the first chart above was first floated over 2 years ago -

Read 4 tweets
22 Nov 21
Objectively, a positive picture, and yet many would view it in utterly negative terms.... due no doubt to buying high. Image
It's simple mean of prices that gives a regression curve around which price oscillates.

What's interesting is a changing dynamic [that denotes a maturing market imo] - price has stayed above this mean for quite some time.
The contraction of prices around that regression curve corroborated by the MACD on both weekly and monthly time-frames.

What does it represent? The capitalization of a nascent currency imo. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
21 Nov 21
Reminder: BTC is in a secular bull market. Don't confuse realism with bearism.🙂
Perceptions are relative. When you're used to seeing hyper-bull posts, realism will *appear* bearish. The reality though is realism is bullish... even with consolidation.
The LGC represents both this secular bull market and the wall of worry that all bull markets climb.

The flaw of hyper-bull posts was the suggestion that it would all be a walk in the park.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov 21
The dynamic of this market is starting to now look qualitatively different. What was before an idea [due to increased liquidity and a maturing market] is beginning to be confirmed in the price action. All good.
The point of this post is that, from the macro perspective, even if we were to see an extended consolidation from here this need not be though of as a 'bear market'. That kind of outlook [fear] belongs to a more immature phase of the market along with talk of mulit-year cycles.
As envisaged near a year back -…
Read 5 tweets

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