People are piling into the $FTM ecosystem as they realize it's got a few key catalysts in its favor:

• Strong price momentum
@andrecronjetech's ve(3,3) token launch
• An undervaluation of project TVL
• A $1b incentive program

So what are the projects I'm looking at?
Well, value will probably accrue back to $FTM, making it a clear option, but for higher-leverage/higher-risk plays, most are looking at ecosystem coins.

Additionally, the top 20 ecosystem coins by TVL all stand to benefit from the new ve(3,3) token launch.
First, a top-down look at $FTM protocols by TVL.

Measuring protocols by TVL/MKT CAP isn't a perfect way to find undervaluation, but it can give us a place to start when gem-hunting.

Here's a table of the following coins and their $ETH analogs:

(Not a perfect comparison)
Off the bat, we can see relative under- and over-valuations.

We've got to consider a few things here:

• How large the market cap is
• What emissions and tokenomics are like
• How TVL translates to value accrual/adoption

Here are my favorites:
1. Spookyswap ($BOO)

I think a lot of Alt-L1 exchanges are really undervalued.

Spooky is at the top of that list, doing 20x its market cap in weekly volume.

That's nearly twice as much Volume/Mkt Cap as its next competitor.

(Graphic: @fantom_insider)
• Insane Mkt Cap/TVL ratio
• Fees are turned on, generating value for holders
• Staking offers 40% APR

• Bad UX
• Emissions

As the number one exchange on $FTM, it has the most to gain from the $FTM gold rush.

Billions of dollars, all funneling through $BOO
Staked $BOO is called $xBOO

And you can stake your xBOO in Spiritswap to earn even more rewards in the form of other small cap $FTM protocols: $LQDR, $TREEB, $wFTM, $SPA, $HEC

All paying out over 50%.

Free lottery tickets.
2. Scream ($SCREAM)

Scream is just a Compound fork on $FTM that happens to be wildly undervalued on TVL terms.

And Compound itself is thought to be an undervalued project in the $ETH DeFi space.

At a market cap of just $20 million, $SCREAM seems to have tremendous potential.
It's still a 4x from a 'fair' valuation in terms of TVL, a 5x away from $100,000,000, and a 12x from Compounds market cap.

All this despite its adoption and a clear product-market-fit with over $600m in TVL.

Ask @rektfoodfarmer about it
3. Beethoven X ($BEETS)

Beethoven X, a clone of Balancer V2 (a DEX), is relatively overvalued by TVL, but I still like it.

The $BAL V2 model has huge potential as it allows you to create an index of assets and earn fees by providing liquidity for that asset group.
But Balancer itself has been a bit of a disappointment, trading today at the same price as in June.

I think the $BAL / $BEETS model is highly underrated and innovative compared to conventional AMM models.

We'll have to see if that translates to trading volume and value capture.
Perhaps an influx of DeFi-interested capital will allow the $BAL/ $BEETS model (and its new V2 improvements) to thrive on $FTM where it couldn't on $ETH

And at a $40m valuation in seems like it has some room to grow.
There are some problems with $FTM, however: in runups like these the final bagholders can get burned.

And with so many original holders in profit, price can collapse as quickly as it moons.

How long will the runup continue?
Another issue?

The massive yields available (up to 200% on stablecoins) are simply unsustainable. These rewards are sometimes referred to as an 'incentives pump,' and can fade as the money dries up.

Yields and APYs come directly from Fantom's $1 billion incentive coffers.
Nonetheless, there is clear momentum in the sapce and TVL/adoption metrics show that $FTM still has a long way to go.

And with catalysts coming and new devs/users flocking in I still think we're looking at significant upside.
Thanks for reading! If you liked the thread, please help me get it out to more people by RTing/Favoriting the first tweet, linked below: 👇

If you want to learn more about the fundamental analysis and narratives behind altcoins, you'd probably like my newsletter, check it out below.

And for more tweet threads like this follow me: @JackNiewold…

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More from @JackNiewold

11 Jan
ve(3,3) could change DeFi forever.

@andrecronje, @danielesesta, and @FantomFDN have banded together to create a new, secretive, and highly anticipated project.

Here's a thread of everything we know (and some speculation) on the protocol:

Also, how to play the trade: 🧵👇
THE TOKEN: Currently referred to as ve(3,3), it's speculated from the below (censored) image that it will be called 'SOLID'.

It will use the same:

• 've' (vote escrow) mechanics as protocols like Convex and Curve
• staking/dilution mechanics (3,3) as OlympusDAO.
Vote Escrow: locking for longer periods of time gives you higher rewards and a larger share in voting the governance of the protocol.

But you have to lock and thus cannot sell your tokens

( $CVX and $CRV )

If you're confused, check out this thread:
Read 17 tweets
10 Jan

A thread of all the bullish and bearish information you could possibly desire right now.

Use it to make the right decision, anon.👇
I spent the morning aggregating all of the information from the smartest, most followed people I know on twitter.

Many are in disagreement, but there's plenty to learn in these volatile time periods.

$BTC is what most are watching right now. Altcoins will respond accordingly.

A lot of traders are very bearish at the moment, suggesting drops and liquidations to dismal prices.

$BTC might do the best, then $ETH, then everything else.

But the following market participants think dollars are the best thing to hold.
Read 22 tweets
10 Jan
(1/4) If you didn't catch it, $SPELL just added two 0%-interest lending markets, $wBTC and $wETH

I see this as a move meant to help the protocol sustain itself through bearish times.

$BTC and $ETH are the hardiest, most downside-resistant assets in a bear market.
(2/4) So people are willing to borrow against them even in bearish times.

As long as Abracadabra can sustain TVL it can continue to be valuable.

And while demand for leverage dries up in a bear market, *hopefully* these two assets can drive new borrowing demand.
(3/4) But that demand is far from dried up, for now.

Despite market-wide liquidations, there is still plenty of demand for both $UST and $sSpell borrowing 'cauldrons'.

Despite a $1 billion lending market for $UST, it remains very much in demand with just $1800 available.
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
I've been doing a deep dive on Fantom 👻 over the last month and I'm convinced the token is undervalued.

But what if it's not just $FTM that's trading at an undervaluation?

What if it's the entire Fantom dApp ecosystem?

Here's why DeFi on $FTM will moon in 2022:👇

A straightforward way to understand crypto assets is Total Value Locked: the $ value of assets tied up in a given protocol.

TVL might not predict a price pump, but it can tell you if a protocol is over/undervalued compared to peers.

And believe me, Fantom DeFi is undervalued:
Here's a look at Fantom DeFi apps compared to their Ethereum counterparts, all measured in terms of Mkt Cap/TVL.

These apps are direct copies of Ethereum apps, but they're trading at a discount relative to TVL.

(All except Cream/Scream)
Read 12 tweets
29 Dec 21
The Curve Wars are in full tilt.

The early skirmishes are being fought.

Here's everything you need to know about $CRV and $CVX (Convex), the war between protocols to accumulate them, and how you can make money on the trade.

(A thread in 3 parts) 👇

DEXes rely on Automated Market Makers (AMMs) to function.

These AMMs rebalance with every crypto swap/trade. With every sale, price goes down.

The more liquidity in the liquidity pool, the better, as price doesn't slip/rebalance as much.
This is important for any crypto asset, as illiquid pairs mean buyers and sellers get a worse deal.

You sometimes see this when buying microcaps. DEXes ask you to adjust slippage tolerance, which basically means the price of your asset is changing due to your trade.
Read 20 tweets
28 Dec 21
Investing in crypto is about understanding narratives: time the narratives, ride the trade, and benefit from the momentum of an inefficient market discovering value.

Here are the narratives that will shape crypto and mint millionaires in 2022:

1. The L1 Trade Continues

The explosive growth of non-eth L1s is not a fad, $ETH dominance is not a given.

Devs and users continue to embrace new chains in the hopes of being early.

@TaschaLabs outlines the dilemma of just rotating back to $ETH below:

We've already seen the second phase of this trade begin: check out this chart of L1 performance since the $BTC peak in November.

Most L1s tracking $BTC, $ETH flat, but tokens like $NEAR, $LUNA, and $AVAX pumping.

Understanding these rotations and riding them will be vital.
Read 12 tweets

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