Looks like rain Saturday with a transition to wintry mix or snow late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast is a headache…. Rain, sleet and snow are all possible between Saturday and Sunday night with travel impacts potentially extending beyond that. (1/6) ^al
NWS: “Get ready for winter weather and possible major travel impacts, but understand these winter storms are difficult to predict and change rapidly. Even small changes in the strength and track can mean huge changes in real-world impacts.” (2/6) ^al
Challenge 1 - precip type. The track of this system is critical as is the exact temperature profile above our heads. More sleet cuts way down on snow totals. (3/6) ^al
Challenge 2 - Amounts. If the system produces snow for us, there would prob be a wide range of amts due to what’s called a “deformation zone.” This zone is what produces swaths of prolonged heavier snowfall over a relatively narrow area. It remains elusive for this wknd (4/6) ^al
The picture will likely become more clear tomorrow, but understand changes to the forecast are likely even up to the event. Once the system exits, anything we get should begin melting Monday and each day beyond with temps above freezing. (5/6) ^al
Stay connected. Stay flexible. Stay wary of recency bias that would suggest the last two events were slam dunks, so this must be. We’ll be here with updates. (6/6) ^al
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