Thread by @NashSevereWx

Davidson & Williamson Counties cover 1,110 sq. mi. Will Co's highest elevation is 1256 feet, Davidson's is 1160 feet. Temps vary by elevation. Roads go up and down hills. Some are shaded, some runoff water well. Where ice has formed, or may form, is as diverse as our community...

...therefore we know no specifics. General rules are helpful but not decisive. Wind helps dry roads. Roads at elevation are colder, but they got gravity on their side, water can run off. Treated roads will hold less ice than untreated roads. It appears...

...we avoided a legit ice storm by about 2° to 4° in most places. Any standing water or existing ice that hasn't melted this afternoon should remain icy overnight as temps everywhere drop below freezing. Check Waze, Google Maps, for the OK before undertaking a route...

...Last night we saw several models perform poorly, mainly the global models (Euro, GFS, and NAM) which called for way more ice than we got. The HRRR (which we discussed last night) did well. This will not always be true. Give low/no credibility to just one model's specific...

...prediction a few days in advance. The models are tools, not forecasts. They give us guidance, but they're "pointing us in a crooked line" which is why we get so frustrated by crap apps spewing exact ranges for snow days in advance...

...Bricks don't build houses, people do, but you need bricks to build. Same is true for models and forecasts. With more winter events coming over the next week, be patient with forecasters. In a rush to get excited about snow, don't jump into conclusions based on crap apps...

...or certain model data.

Read news from journalists, not tabloids. Get your hair cut by a barber, not grandma. Get diagnosed by doctors, not the internet.

Get your weather from a forecaster, not the most dramatic model output cherry picked for your clicks.

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