Dear @COVID_19_Canada Vaccine Q&A friends

Just finished going through survey data for program participants (with Janet Cho, @emeraldclover5 @sillenojunior)

The Q&As resulted in a significant 12% shift toward intention to vaccinate.

For vax hesitancy that's big.

Way to go!
@COVID_19_Canada @emeraldclover5 @sillenojunior If this pattern held true for all 35,000 people we've spoken with since Jan 4, 2020, this means the program may have convinced more than 4,100 people to get vaccinated. The average age of respondents was 48. Estimated lives saved: 18-36.
Hopefully the 35,000 people we've spoken with went on to support others to get vaccinated too.
Participants were significantly more likely than controls to have previously had negative experiences with the healthcare system, but not with vaccines or with individual healthcare workers.

Anyway, the data are fascinating. Will post the preprint once we've finished writing.
Considering we reached 35K people mainly through word of mouth, social media and unions, that the work was almost all volunteer-led and -staffed and didn't have funds for systematic outreach I think this means it would be worth incorporating this approach into formal vax drives.
Anyway, this is just posting results by Twitter and y'all have to see the study to judge, but I was excited and wanted to share the first view of the data!
Finally, the participants were significantly more likely than control non-participants to be unsure or strongly against vaccination. Most of the shift was in people who were unsure and shifted to the "definitely intend to get vaccinated" category.

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More from @MoriartyLab

15 Jan
Estimating actual and reported COVID-19 deaths in Canada in the coming months

🧵 Image
It's Saturday and I have a little more time than during the week, so here's an explainer of how I'm estimating future COVID-19 deaths.

There are MANY yelling in my mentions that this is impossible.

Friends, it's due to exponential growth, which humans aren't good at estimating.
To estimate future deaths, you need a couple of key pieces of information.

1. The actual number of infections
2. The death rate for those infections
Read 8 tweets
14 Jan
Boosters are having a big impact on future severe outcomes of Omicron wave in Canada

Between Dec 28 and today, boosters have reduced the maximum percentage of people in Ontario who can get infected from 88% of population to 69%.

🧵Why does this matter?

Source @COVIDSciOntario Image
@COVIDSciOntario Let's extend the Ontario booster data to Canada.

On Dec 28, it was possible that 88% of the Canadian population could be infected in the current wave. That's about 34M infections.

If we reduce the maximum to 69%, this means 26M infections, a reduction of about 8M infections.
@COVIDSciOntario With current vax protection vs severe Omicron outcomes, % each age group fully vaccinated and assuming Omicron is 50% less "severe" than Delta:

🔵Estimated current Canadian infection fatality rate for those infections is 0.17%.

Multiply that by 8M. Nearly 14K prevented deaths.
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
Most people assume that Canadian COVID-19 deaths occur mainly in hospitals and long-term care, retirement and assisted living homes.

They don't, especially since vaccines became available.

It's not clear how many people die AFTER going to hospital, or how many never go.
In Canada, the full impact of COVID-19 waves is largely seen in reported deaths, which often are reported long after the wave has passed, especially outside QC (probably also MB).

As I say over and over, watch QC and assume same is happening in your region or will soon.
Deaths in hospital account for a minority of total deaths. We're about to find out soon if LTC will surge with breakthrough deaths.

Again, watch Quebec for the fastest death reporting in LTC/RHs and all locations.

If QC deaths in LTC start surging the ROC will be close behind.
Read 8 tweets
8 Jan
For everyone sending DMs about what to do if you can't access RATs, N95s, what to do if someone at home is symptomatic

I can't answer all questions individually, but will do a Zoom session tonight at 8 ET to answer as many as possible.

Registration here:
eventbrite.ca/e/241901181947
The title of the event is Vaccine Conversations because that's the default title for Q&A sessions we host @COVID_19_Canada.

But I'll cover every topic I can. If I don't know I'll tell you.

I'll likely do this tmw too. We'll expand to more of @COVID_19_Canada team helping ASAP.
@COVID_19_Canada I know there's a profound need right now to get clear, simple information because official support phone lines are completely clogged across Canada.

We'll do the best we can to provide basic advice and support that will work across all Canadian regions.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
For people 40+ in Canada who aren't yet vaccinated

Here are odds of being hospitalized, in ICU and dying from Omicron. If there are even hospital beds available.

In this thread I'm breaking it down by age, to help you see your real risk.

I am desolate. Your life matters.
If you're in your 40s and are unvaccinated

1 in 58 people 40-49 will be hospitalized when infected with Omicron, if there are beds.

1 in 217 people 40-49 will end up in ICU, if there are beds.

1 in 787 will die.
If you're in your 50s and are unvaccinated

1 in 28 people 50-59 will be hospitalized when infected with Omicron, if there are beds and staff.

1 in 83 people 50-59 will end up in ICU, if there are beds and staff.

1 in 235 will die.
Read 9 tweets
8 Jan
If you are a not yet vaccinated person 40+ living in Canada

You currently have a 1 in 21 chance of being hospitalized when you get COVID, a 1 in 59 chance of ending up in ICU and a 1 in 76 chance of dying.

I'm opening my DMs. Your life matters. Please message me if you need to
I have to focus on supporting people most at risk who have vaccine questions right now. I'll keep my DMs open this weekend and try to talk to everyone I can. If you questions about other topics, we'll open up a Zoom Q&A in the evenings so I can manage.
If you're sending spam or harassing don't bother. I'll just report and block, so it's not worth your time.

EVERYONE nearly 30K people unvaxxed people in Canada will die when they're infected. Regardless of your feelings about vaccination status, these are lives that matter.
Read 4 tweets

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