Thread by @MoriartyLab

Boosters are having a big impact on future severe outcomes of Omicron wave in Canada

Between Dec 28 and today, boosters have reduced the maximum percentage of people in Ontario who can get infected from 88% of population to 69%.

🧵Why does this matter?

Source @COVIDSciOntario

@COVIDSciOntario Let's extend the Ontario booster data to Canada.

On Dec 28, it was possible that 88% of the Canadian population could be infected in the current wave. That's about 34M infections.

If we reduce the maximum to 69%, this means 26M infections, a reduction of about 8M infections.

@COVIDSciOntario With current vax protection vs severe Omicron outcomes, % each age group fully vaccinated and assuming Omicron is 50% less "severe" than Delta:

🔵Estimated current Canadian infection fatality rate for those infections is 0.17%.

Multiply that by 8M. Nearly 14K prevented deaths.

@COVIDSciOntario 🔵Estimated current Canadian hospitalization rate for Omicron infections: 0.45%.

Multiply that by 8M. 36K prevented hospitalizations.

🔵Estimated current Canadian ICU admission rate for Omicron infections: 0.19%.

Multiply that by 8M. 15K prevented ICU admissions.

@COVIDSciOntario BUT.....

Boosters alone are not the way out of this. We can't keep boosting because we refuse to put other protective measures in place. We can't keep boosting at the expense of the majority of people in the world desperate for 1st and 2nd doses.

@COVIDSciOntario We know effect of boosters will decline w/in 10 wks of shot.

Boosters buy us time to get other measures in place, including universal, free access to N95-quality masks, improved building ventilation, filtration, accumulating enough medications for when boosters wane.

@COVIDSciOntario Boosters will help to avert some of the worst of the current wave BUT THEY ARE NOT ENOUGH and a boost-only strategy without other measures to slow and limit spread GUARANTEES that we will be in this situation again soon AND that new variants will emerge.