The decline of the liberal international order and the United States are not the same thing.
An LIO requires liberal foreign policy behavior from even illiberal states, esp. China & Russia. This was always a tenuous outcome, and it required huge liberal power - i.e., American
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An LIO requires liberal foreign policy behavior from even illiberal states, esp. China & Russia. This was always a tenuous outcome, and it required huge liberal power - i.e., American
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unipolarity and strong coordination in the Free World - to push liberal global rules (WTO, IMF) on states ideologically & nationalistically uncomfortable with extreme American dominance.
As unipolarity has receded in the last decade, so has the ability of the US and Free World
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As unipolarity has receded in the last decade, so has the ability of the US and Free World
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to push China, Russia, and others into an LIO. Hence all the talk about its collapse.
This is mostly the result of China's rise and consequent US relative decline. But the US worsened this drift back toward bipolarity by repeated errors like Iraq, the Great Recession, and
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This is mostly the result of China's rise and consequent US relative decline. But the US worsened this drift back toward bipolarity by repeated errors like Iraq, the Great Recession, and
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electing Trump.
But the erosion of the LIO - which was always very likely given the extraordinary unipolar circumstances it requires - is not the absolute decline of the US or its alliance network.
Also, relative US decline isn't that terrible, as it's almost solely by
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But the erosion of the LIO - which was always very likely given the extraordinary unipolar circumstances it requires - is not the absolute decline of the US or its alliance network.
Also, relative US decline isn't that terrible, as it's almost solely by
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Chinese growth.
Putin is a risk-taker who gets a lot of tough-guy press, but Russia is corrupt and weak. Its GDP is smaller than S Korea's.
China has a lot of handicaps - ecological, demographic, financial - its triumphalist state media won't admit.
Most other power centers
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Putin is a risk-taker who gets a lot of tough-guy press, but Russia is corrupt and weak. Its GDP is smaller than S Korea's.
China has a lot of handicaps - ecological, demographic, financial - its triumphalist state media won't admit.
Most other power centers
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(EU, Japan) or future possible power centers (India, Brazil) are on pretty good terms with Washington.
So the international prospects for the US, and the wider US alliance network (an LIO limited to liberal states), are still pretty good.
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So the international prospects for the US, and the wider US alliance network (an LIO limited to liberal states), are still pretty good.
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