(or of course it could point to only the role of moderna's 'intellectual property' in the virus origin - which may have been used without the firm's permission)
technical note "in actual fact this is RNA so should have a U in place of every T, but BLAST compensates for this automatically for simplicity"
re. the likelihood of this sequence occurring by chance:
for a single 19 base 'trial' there's a 1 in 27,4877,906,944 chance of getting that exact string.
but SARS-CoV-2's genome is ~30,000 bases long. which gives ~29,981 possible sections it could occur in (=higher likelihood)
i don't have the maths smarts to work out the final probability of the sequence appearing at least once by chance in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, but none of the online calculators i used could display a probability so low😅
"why focus on just this sequence from a much bigger genome?" (the chance of finding *any* 19 base sequence from the whole genome in one of moderna's patents is much bigger).
CTC..TAG is special bc it corresponds to a furin cleavage site, which don't occur in SARS-like viruses.
in the fruit machine fallacy the 'digits' of a genome are treated as though they are wheels of a fruit machine.
roughly: you look at a sequence of nucleotides, at the number of possible types for each nucleotide, and calculate the odds of recreating the sequence of interest if all nucleotide types were set at random.
i deleted my most shared tweet. rip. i believe the part about '1 in a billion' is too ambiguous and/or not supported. i don't know how we'd approach putting a likelihood on the #CTCCTCGGCGGGCACGTAG sequence in moderna's patents coincidentally also ending up in SARS-CoV-2
the rest of the original thread here: rest of the original thread here:
the 1 in a billion claim can make sense if simplifying each 'slot' in a genome to something like the wheel of a fruit machine, pulling the lever, and checking the output for occurrences of the query string.
many otherwise smart seeming people claiming that the risk of harm from vaccination is very small.
no. we don't know what the risks are. because: 🧵
1. there's no rigorously collection of adverse events. only passive systems like VAERS. VAERS, known to be subject to massive underreporting, *is* seeing many times more reports than the increased rate of vaccination alone would predict. this is ignored by 'authorities' so far.
2. there is no routine testing for subclinical damage post vaccination. nor was there any biomarker testing for the possibility of such damage in the trials - for instance micro clots.
as far as I can tell, the risk, by the way has entirely to do with the user needing to precisely measure out a correct weight-adjusted dose themselves.
this, needless to say, is not medical advice. and neither is what the FDA is flippantly shitting out above.