The air of failure surrounding #AVCT this week on Twitter and the bulletin boards - largely from non- and ex-holders - is truly mystifying.
We will have a very good idea of whether the pre CISION platform is working, in the coming few weeks…
1/
@PapaDoc3333@TrivChannel …either from dose escalation in AVA6000 P1a; or from candidate selection for AVA3996.
One vital, silver lining of #AVCT’s RNS on Monday:
Alastair Smith has made it very clear that he is a man of integrity. He could have allowed M19 to continue selling MeduFlow in the EU, 2/n
@PapaDoc3333@TrivChannel … and continue with their application to the FDA for EUA (home-use) in the US - whilst improving the strip simultaneously in the background.
All other LFT providers are doing this, after all.
The fact that AS didn’t tells us two things:
1) he will inform the market of…
3/n
@PapaDoc3333@TrivChannel …bad news, if there is any. Thus with regards to #AVCT’s AVA6000, we should understand that nothing untoward has happened in the first 5 months of the trial. If nothing untoward has happened, then we can perhaps take it that 6000 is working - to some extent - better than… 4/n
2) AS wants to keep a spotless reputation with the FDA, for the sake of the infinitely more important AVA6000 trial in the US (over M19’s MeduFlow application to the FDA).
By (temporarily) sacrificing what could be very substantial… 5/n
@PapaDoc3333@TrivChannel …immediate-term MeduFlow sales in the US, for the sake of keeping in the FDA’s good books, personally I infer that Alastair is very optimistic about the AVA6000 trial.
The rapid approval by the FDA of #AVCT’s IND Filing does, in my opinion, support the above.
6/n
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
On Monday, #AVCT announced that it had received FDA approval for its Investigational New Drug ('IND') application, to expand its Phase I clinical trial for AVA6000, into trial sites in the US.
The timing of the submission and the length of review are critical.
2/25
The FDA has a 30-day review and turnaround time. Given #AVCT announced the approval this Monday, owing to LSE disclosure laws we must assume it received the approval sometime between Friday and Sunday.
Give a few days for post / admin / comms delays, and we can assume...
...associated with standard doxorubicin, the trial may have been halted already.
On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.
At the current tin price ⬆️, Uis running at nameplate capacity of 1,200 tpa (post ongoing expansion works) would be generating circa £26m EBITDA on circa £36m revs.
The pilot tantalum plant to come online in next few months will provide incremental revs (although at this... 2/6
...stage, unknown), which could grow considerably. Lithium oxide should also come online at Uis Phase 1 - perhaps later next year.
At the current tin price, the expanded Uis Phase 1 (without Ta or Li credits) will have an NPV of $70m to $80m, v. #ATM's current EV of $61m.
3/6
A few more added to the ever-growing @Tirupatiuk holding just now.
The SP is 30% off recent highs, and is still below where it was, pre-acquisition of the Mozambique projects.
Nonsensical. The deal will give #TGR geographical diversification; a broader product range... 1/8
...(the new projects will add small flake graphite to #TGR's offering); a resource base several multiples larger; and, of course, will give @Tirupatiuk much greater production volumes in the medium term.
TGR was already targeting 84 ktpa output in Madagascar; the two new... 2/8
...projects would bring into the fold a potential further 158 ktpa in Mozambique. A 188% increase in total target output for #TGR, over the medium term.
Since the acquisition news, TGR has also brought online its second plant in Madagascar, increasing nameplate capacity... 3/8
@guildesports#GILD is making all the right steps, is expanding incredibly quickly, and winning more trophies than it has had any right to do in its first year of operations.
The Academy could quickly become a key competitive advantage. 1/7
It could create value for #GILD in so many ways. Monthly subscription revs could build quickly - only 17k subscribers would be £1m ARR.
It provides an incredible scouting outlet and feeder system for upcoming talent. Hopefully we’ll see the first academy contracts in the… 2/7
…not too distant. Imagine in a few years’ time #GILD being able to field teams largely or even wholly comprised of Academy-generated talent.
My take on player transfers is that in 2-3 years, Esports transfer values could be 10x the size of what they are today. In 5-7… 3/7