The portfolio cornerstone, @avacta #AVCT, now down 6% YTD - having been +154% (290p) in April.
The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.
Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.
1/11
The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.
Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.
1/11
Four potential indicators to look out for in the coming weeks / months that #AVCT's targeted chemotherapy platform is working:
1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.
If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.
If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
...associated with standard doxorubicin, the trial may have been halted already.
On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.
3/11
On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.
3/11
2) #AVCT RNSing dose escalation of next cohort (of three patients).
If the first three-patient cohort was experiencing severe side-effects, the dose escalation would most likely not occur at all.
Given that the first patient in the first cohort was dosed two months ago... 4/11
If the first three-patient cohort was experiencing severe side-effects, the dose escalation would most likely not occur at all.
Given that the first patient in the first cohort was dosed two months ago... 4/11
..., the first patient of the second cohort (with the dose having been escalated) should be dosed in the next week or two. #AVCT may or may not disclose if/when the second cohort commences, BUT...
Given that there're only three patients per cohort, we can surmise that the...5/11
Given that there're only three patients per cohort, we can surmise that the...5/11
...more hospitals that start recruiting, the more likely it is that the second cohort has indeed commenced.
......
3) IND filing for AVA6000.
#AVCT stated on 30.09.21 (when it was aware of PK data from Cohort 1), that it "remains on track for an IND submission before.... 6/11
......
3) IND filing for AVA6000.
#AVCT stated on 30.09.21 (when it was aware of PK data from Cohort 1), that it "remains on track for an IND submission before.... 6/11
...the end of 2021".
Clearly, if the data - known by mgmt at the time of the statement - were poor, #AVCT would not press ahead with starting a separate Phase 1 trial in the US, as well as the ongoing Phase 1 trial here in the UK.
That would be completely nonsensical.
7/11
Clearly, if the data - known by mgmt at the time of the statement - were poor, #AVCT would not press ahead with starting a separate Phase 1 trial in the US, as well as the ongoing Phase 1 trial here in the UK.
That would be completely nonsensical.
7/11
4) #AVCT selecting a clinical candidate for AVA3996 (pro-velcade).
Again, were the initial data for AVA6000 poor, mgmt would not be rushing to bring the next pro-chemotherapy into clinic. @avacta would need time to assess the data, work out what had gone wrong.
8/11
Again, were the initial data for AVA6000 poor, mgmt would not be rushing to bring the next pro-chemotherapy into clinic. @avacta would need time to assess the data, work out what had gone wrong.
8/11
What the CEO did say on 30.09.21 (when the AVA6000 initial data were already known) was:
"The objective is to have that candidate selected by the end of this calendar year, and I'm pretty confident that we're going to achieve that. We're get very close to that point."
9/11
"The objective is to have that candidate selected by the end of this calendar year, and I'm pretty confident that we're going to achieve that. We're get very close to that point."
9/11
#AVCT itself also updated its website yesterday, moving AVA3996 to pre-clinical status.
For me at least, that bodes very well.
......
Success in AVA6000 would not only unlock a billion $ drug with a fast route to market (as Phase II would very likely be pivotal).
10/11
For me at least, that bodes very well.
......
Success in AVA6000 would not only unlock a billion $ drug with a fast route to market (as Phase II would very likely be pivotal).
10/11
Positive data in AVA6000's current Phase I trial could unlock a platform technology that could literally transform the global oncology market.
Hence the almightily overweight #AVCT position - despite the recent weakness in the shares, and despite the large risk attached.
11/11
Hence the almightily overweight #AVCT position - despite the recent weakness in the shares, and despite the large risk attached.
11/11
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