Great meeting with @kalhourd today.

@guildesports #GILD is making all the right steps, is expanding incredibly quickly, and winning more trophies than it has had any right to do in its first year of operations.

The Academy could quickly become a key competitive advantage. 1/7
It could create value for #GILD in so many ways. Monthly subscription revs could build quickly - only 17k subscribers would be £1m ARR.

It provides an incredible scouting outlet and feeder system for upcoming talent. Hopefully we’ll see the first academy contracts in the… 2/7
…not too distant. Imagine in a few years’ time #GILD being able to field teams largely or even wholly comprised of Academy-generated talent.

My take on player transfers is that in 2-3 years, Esports transfer values could be 10x the size of what they are today. In 5-7… 3/7
…years, maybe 100x? Consider #GILD just sold a player - with only <6 months remaining on his contract - for $115k.

@guildesports will start building a roster of second tier players, straight out of the Academy. Potentially very large value could be generated from selling…4/7
…on this talent to other franchises.

The Academy will also create intangible value for #GILD in getting parents onside (online safety, screen-time restrictions, etc). This holistic approach in turn will help get major sponsors on board.

Perhaps most importantly of all, 5/7
The Academy will create a massive, loyal fan base for @guildesports #GILD. That’s what it’s all about 👌

Valuation? <3 months until start of next FY, so think it’s fair to use 2021/22 numbers. Two brokers have £13m and £14m revs pencilled in, respectively.

Let’s assume £12m 6/7
Relative valuation analysis suggests #GILD could trade on anywhere between 6-20x revs.

10x would put GILD at £120m, or c.23p per share.

I think that’s a fair (base case) SP target for next 6-12 months. 7/7

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More from @MylesMcNulty

7 Jul
Absolute terror reigns over many #AVCT shareholders this week- simply because @avacta hasn't announced orders for its LFT yet.

Question: would #AVCT be lining up 30m per month capacity overseas, if it thought its existing 5m per month capacity in the UK wouldn't be filled? 1/13
Many seem obsessed with the UK market, thinking that's the be-all and end-all for #AVCT's AffiDX LFT.

My view is that mgmt had turned its back on the UK market several months ago, when it was apparent that there was, at best, complete ineptitude; or, at worst, corruption... 2/13
...at the top of certain UK Gov bodies. I'm referring to both the continued inexplicable support of Innova, and to the stonewalling of @mologic and UK Diagnostics PLC in general.

The FDA's actions against Innova may well have changed #AVCT's stance re: dealing with HMG. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
1 Jul
A must-read article for #AVCT holders ⬇️

University of Leeds (@avacta's academic partner) has been able to bind Affimers to the mutated form of the RAS protein, AKA the Death Star, which is responsible for 20-30% of all cancers.

Huge LT implications for Affimer Therapeutics 1/5
Amy Turner, co-author: "RAS really is the Holy Grail of therapeutic targets. The fact that it has previously been termed 'undruggable' has allowed us to demonstrate the huge impact that our Affimer technology can have when it comes to treating challenging pathologies."

2/5
We have seen in recent months how #AVCT's Affimer Diagnostics platform has outperformed monoclonal antibodies (and other antibody mimetics), in the Affimer-based #COVID19 LFT and ELISA.

Now we have an example of Affimers' superiority (dare I say uniqueness?) in Therapeutics. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
29 Jun
Fabulous to see @guildesports' @taysonFN win the Fortnite Champion Series All-Star Showdown last weekend.

#GILD talent has been a tad subdued on field the past couple of months, but three top 40 finishes (including first place ⬆️) in a major FNCS event is superb.

1/6
As per the Retweet ⬆️, this continued on-field success is critical for the commercial success of @guildesports over the long-term.

Evidently #GILD's set-up - the academy model, the personalised training, the player support - is working wonders.

FNCS victory this weekend...

2/6
...also comes right on the back of #GILD signing its fourth partnership deal in only 8 months - this one with Samsung, which followed Subway in March.

@guildesports has been signing sponsorship deals / partnerships at a rate of approx. one every two months - and those...

3/6
Read 6 tweets
23 Jun
1 month on, and FeV (Europe) has increased by 27%.

#BMN is down several % month-on-month.

Broker EBITDA forecast for 2022 is $80m, based on an average FeV price of $40/kg.

The global V market is incredibly inelastic. There are very few deposits that are nearing... 1/11 Image
...construction ready. It's doubtful that any new production will be able to come online within the next two years - apart from the primary producers, #BMN and $LGO, expanding their operations.

@BushveldMin_Ltd owns two of only four primary production operations worldwide. 2/11
It is incredibly leveraged to the V price, which itself is illiquid and prone to exceptional moves.

With the global economic recovery driving steel output to all-time highs, demand for V (which is primarily used to strengthen steel) is steadily increasing.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.

'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12
Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.

With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.

Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
...of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.

Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.

But much more importantly for the investment case:

3/12
Read 12 tweets
18 Feb
@avacta's AVA6000 approved by MHRA. Superb news. First dosing 'around mid-year'; first data to come within 3-4 months after that.

A summary thread on the significance of AVA6000 - and #AVCT's pre CISION platform as a whole - to both the oncology industry and to AVCT itself. 1/10
In very basic terms, #AVCT's pre CISION chemotherapies are essentially reformulated versions of existing, approved chemotherapies that have been used on cancer patients for many years - decades, even.

The pre CISION tech is simply an attempt to improve the safety profile... 2/10
...of the chemo.

Most therapeutics going through clinical trials look for an improvement of at least 20% over the existing industry-standard drug. A 50% increase in efficacy would usually be considered an astonishing result.

In pre-clinical mouse models for #AVCT's AVA6000 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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