1. Invest it (to earn more $BTC). 2. Spend it (to consume today).
3/ Investing #Bitcoin successfully will be incredibly difficult. 99.9% of people will likely not have traditional investments.
This means that $BTC will be HODL'd and the price must increase until a HODLer sees a good risk-adjusted opportunity to invest today.
4/ Spending #Bitcoin will also be discouraged as we all know the future purchasing power will continue to increase forever.
This means that $BTC will be HODL'd and price must increase until a HODLer sees a valid reason to consume today.
5/ #Bitcoin's monetary properties and perfect scarcity will push the price higher and higher until it forces HODLers to part ways with their coins.
As the block subsidy continues to dwindle and adoption continues to accelerate, #Bitcoin will reach unimaginable price levels.
6/ Perfect scarcity pushing the price up until HODLers have a desire to invest or consume will transform how the world thinks about wealth and economics.
It is possible that by 2050, society will be more advanced than ever, but only have an estimated global wealth of 22.1M $BTC.
7/ How can this be?
I think equities and real estate will exist, but they won't be traditional "store of value" assets.
They will only be there for consumption or short term (<20 years) $BTC denominated alpha because the price of everything with trend to 0 sats.
8/ A LARGE LARGE LARGE MAJORITY of #Bitcoin will be stuck in cold storage for a long long time because the HODLer will not have a need to invest or consume TODAY.
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1/ #Bitcoin is the best form of money ever discovered by humans.
This thread will recap why this is the case and what incentivizes people to "save" or HODL.
2/ #Bitcoin is an asset that has 2 unique characteristics.
1. No counter-party risk (no reliance on government, corporations, or any group of people) 2. No dilution risk (21M coins max)
3/ Bonds, stocks, real estate, fiat money, private equity, gold, and venture capital each contain one of those two risks (counter-party risk or dilution risk).
2/ A common “knock” on Bitcoin is that it is “too volatile”.
However, volatility isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, volatility creates opportunity.
3/ Volatility and return can be assessed using something called the Sharpe Ratio, a risk adjusted return. The Sharpe ratio divides the asset return by the risk / volatility over a 4 year HODL period.
2/ The 60-40 portfolio is the basic idea that passive investors looking to efficiently transfer wealth through time should diversify their assets into 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
First, Bitcoin is the world’s hardest monetary good. It’s the only asset in the universe with no counterparty risk and no dilution risk. Bitcoin is the World’s Safest Asset.
Over the last few weeks there has been lots of discussion around things like YCC, real rates, repo market, steepening yield curve, etc. IMO, Many people are getting stuck in the weeds and missing the big picture.
2/ Neither you or me can accurately predict short term market movements over days, weeks, or even months. However, we can accurately predict long term trends.
In today’s world, money is debt. Debt is everywhere and everyone is incentivized to get into as much debt as possible.
3/ We must continue to grow the amount of debt otherwise, if the total debt (money) begins shrinking, we enter into a sharp deflationary spiral.
1. Post BTC as collateral for USD loan from @unchainedcap 2. Buy Bitcoin and short futures on @binance 3. Collect spread (currently 43% annualized) 4. Pay interest 11% 5. Earn 32%.
2/ Note these spreads can change quickly.
If Bitcoin does drop rapidly you will need to collateralize your loan. But as Bitcoin is dropping the futures spread is also likely dropping. Meaning you can close out your carry trade early and make $ profit.
3/ Since Bitcoin dropped from where you originally took your loan, you probably ended up with more Bitcoin than you started with, and you can use that to collateralize your loan.