a quick thread on Jim Phillips comments on playoff expansion:

1. had been told the ACC was the primary league holding up expansion, but they're not alone. While ACC is the most steadfast in their position, it's largely shared by others, including the Big Ten.

2. In July, Phillips was preaching the need for this holistic review of all of college football. This isn't a new thing, and he's not wrong -- the landscape has changed a ton and it's worth understanding those dynamics before making big changes to CFP.

3. This is almost certainly a leverage play. Once ACC/P12/B12/G5 vote for expansion, what is the motivation for everyone to come to the table on other issues, let alone to consider what the ACC has to say on those issues? This is ACC's trump card.

4. People are overly focused on the 1 issue of expansion, but Phillips is essentially saying that if you want dessert, you need to eat your vegetables. (How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?) Look at how the NCAA approached NIL. Had years and did nothing.
5. Was just at coaches convention in Tex. The overwhelming takeaway: Everyone agrees there are problems -- opt outs, transfers, recruiting calendar, in-season coaching movement, tampering -- but no one agrees on solutions. There has to be a ticking clock to change that. (5/x)
6. Phillips works for the ACC's member institutions. There is unanimity, per Phillips, in waiting on expansion. I don't think that's BS either. Even pre-realignment, Dabo, Mack & others were outspoken against expansion without other considerations. (6/x)
7. Perhaps most overlooked part of Phillips answers: He said he'd "expects" more realignment before the end of the current playoff agreement. That's a big elephant in the room.

8. Lots of folks suggesting holding up expansion HURTS the ACC. That’s not necessarily true. (7/x)
ACC has had more playoff teams & wins than anyone but the SEC under the 4-team model. And while expansion could = more $ than current model, in relative terms, it almost certainly means less $ compared to what the SEC gains. SEC/B1G will have *more* sway after expansion. (fin)
Sorry typo on that tweet initially… SEC/B1G would be biggest winners in expansion. It’s why the ACC has leverage now.
1 more thing I’d add: People who think playoff expansion will keep players from opting out… I think that’s incredibly naive. A playoff opt out is going to happen. Just a matter of time. Expansion only adds to the pool of possible opt outs.

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More from @ADavidHaleJoint

12 Sep 21
Quick thoughts on FSU…

This was never going to be a good football team. The hope was 6-6, a bowl game, and enough enthusiasm about progress to keep the 2022 class together.

After Sunday, that all seemed well within reach, if not entirely likely.

Then last night happened.
In a micro sense, the loss was inexcusable.

Yes, the final play. That goes without saying. It’s screwing up Football 101, which puts the heat squarely on Norvell. I get it.

But the limitations of this team were on display throughout. It never should’ve come down to 1 play.
So what the Jax St game showed was two glaring issues that have really dogged FSU for 5+ years.

1) In the moment, the coaching staffs (3 of them now!) have now blundered away games that even a bad FSU team should win. That undermines any sense of credibility.
Read 10 tweets
2 Aug 21
Let’s be real about Clemson & FSU...

1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.

2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.

3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.

But none of that matters as much as…
4.) the Grant of Rights.

FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...
Yes, they'd earn more in SEC, which might help offset some financial damage, but it would also put them at a significant competitive disadvantage in their new league. If the rest of the SEC is flush with cash & FSU/Clemson are paying down a $500M debt... that's a problem.
Read 12 tweets
2 Aug 21
Nothing predicts success like explosive plays. Drives with at least 1 explosive play (run of 12+, pass of 16+) average 4.1 points. Drives without one average 0.5 points.

So, who are the players who create the most explosive plays? (1/8)
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (min 100 touches)
Robinson, Tex - 18.1%
Gibbs, GT - 17.5%
Vaughn, KSt - 16.8%
Smith, A&M - 16.5%
Jackson, OkSt - 15.1%
Ealy, Miss - 14.6%
Durant, Duke - 14.3%
Horvath, Pur - 14.1%
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (cont)

Bigsby, Aub - 13.9%
Conner, Miss - 13.2%
Brown, Ill - 13.2%
Spiller, A&M - 12.6%
Goodson, Iowa - 12.2%
Broussard, Colo - 12.1%
Knight, NCSU - 11.8%
Read 10 tweets
25 Jul 21
Me & @aadelson wrote this spring how the ACC can close the gap w/SEC/B1G. There were essentially 2 real answers from ADs we spoke to: Texas/OU or Notre Dame.

Well, Texas/OU appear off the table.

So let’s talk ND...

(very long thread… 1/x)

@aadelson First, let's clarify where things stand w/ND: When Notre Dame joined the ACC as a partial member (all sports but football + 5 guaranteed football games/year) it agreed to a.) the same grant of rights deal (through 2036) as everyone else (except for football) + a big promise (2/x)
@aadelson ND's deal with the ACC says that IF the Irish join any conference, it MUST be the ACC. I've confirmed this agreement runs concurrent to the grant of rights, so in place through 2036. Of course, there's a way out of everything in college sports, but it would VERY expensive. (3/x)
Read 34 tweets
23 Jul 21
Feedback from a longtime administrator on what comes next for non-SEC folks:
1.) Shore up own membership. Don’t get poached.
2.) Reach out to anyone who might offer value to see if they’re open to a move.
3.) Investigate strategic alliances… i.e. Pac-12/ACC/B12 partnership.
Multiple ADs I’ve spoken to today speculated that a 32-team super conference could be the ultimate outcome here, as it would be the only way to help offset the SEC’s massive power advantage, though I think a more diffuse alliance between leagues is the more likely option.
Idea would be that the sum > individual parts and by creating something of a negotiating partnership, leagues could squeeze for more TV money and better TV windows for games, whereas individually, none could touch the SEC’s sway.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul 21
As @kbohls reported (and I'm told is accurate) the Texas/OU to SEC move is looking likely and would happen sooner than later. So probably time to be thinking about what this means in the big picture for the sport of college football, too. (Thread... 1/x)
@kbohls As we've seen with everything from COVID to NIL, there is no centralized body that says "here's what's good for college football and we need to work together for the larger enterprise." It's every man (or conference/school) for himself, which is what gets us here. (2/x)
@kbohls In a business sense, product isn't college football. It's SEC football, B1G football, ACC football. While fans might view them as complimentary products (i.e. a new UGA fan is also a CFB fan), as a business, they act as substitute goods (each new UGA $ is $ lost from B1G.) (3/x)
Read 9 tweets

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