Let’s be real about Clemson & FSU...

1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.

2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.

3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.

But none of that matters as much as…
4.) the Grant of Rights.

FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...
Yes, they'd earn more in SEC, which might help offset some financial damage, but it would also put them at a significant competitive disadvantage in their new league. If the rest of the SEC is flush with cash & FSU/Clemson are paying down a $500M debt... that's a problem.
For example: Maryland was on the hook for about $50M when it left the ACC and negotiated it down to $32. Seven years in, the Terps still haven't gotten an equal check to the rest of the B1G. Rutgers is the same. In 2014, Rutgers barely earned more than it did in AAC...
Right now, Clemson is a big fish in ACC’s small pond. Do you really think D-Rad and Dabo are eager to move into a far more competitive league at a financial disadvantage? And the ACC wouldn’t be inclined to budge an inch on the GoR buyout because CU/FSU are existential issues…
Then there's the question of whether the SEC would even want to add Clemson and FSU. Neither expands the SEC footprint and both would have current SEC members strongly against it. SEC folks I've talked to say teams like VT/UNC could be better targets for that reason...
Has *someone* affiliated with FSU/Clemson talked to *someone* affiliated with SEC about the future? It's quite possible, if not likely. Every school should be doing due diligence given the uncertainty of the moment. But the idea that real talks have occurred is highly dubious...
The overwhelming feedback I've gotten around the ACC and the country is that, yes, significant consolidation and an SEC super league is entirely possible, but that outcome would be YEARS away, not months. The political blowback and financial impact are just too big short term...
There’s also universal support for new ACC commish Jim Phillips right now. People around the ACC want to give him time to see what he can do to address the awful TV deal and the inequities with the SEC/B1G. The dynamic could shift if no progress is made, but it's not imminent...
Last thing: I continue to think the play from Clemson/FSU and perhaps other football-first schools is a push for reconsidering equal revenue distribution. Teams trying to compete at an elite level in football want a bigger share of the ACC’s smaller pie...
There's leverage toward that now bc the smaller schools don't want to be left in no-man's land the way the remaining Big 12 programs are right now. Particularly if it helps lure Notre Dame, which remains atop the priority list. I wrote about it here: espn.com/college-footba…
Now, if Clemson and FSU announce they’re leaving for the SEC tomorrow and I’m wrong about all this and random radio guy had it right the whole time, I owe you all a beer.

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More from @ADavidHaleJoint

2 Aug
Nothing predicts success like explosive plays. Drives with at least 1 explosive play (run of 12+, pass of 16+) average 4.1 points. Drives without one average 0.5 points.

So, who are the players who create the most explosive plays? (1/8)
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (min 100 touches)
Robinson, Tex - 18.1%
Gibbs, GT - 17.5%
Vaughn, KSt - 16.8%
Smith, A&M - 16.5%
Jackson, OkSt - 15.1%
Ealy, Miss - 14.6%
Durant, Duke - 14.3%
Horvath, Pur - 14.1%
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (cont)

Bigsby, Aub - 13.9%
Conner, Miss - 13.2%
Brown, Ill - 13.2%
Spiller, A&M - 12.6%
Goodson, Iowa - 12.2%
Broussard, Colo - 12.1%
Knight, NCSU - 11.8%
Read 10 tweets
25 Jul
Me & @aadelson wrote this spring how the ACC can close the gap w/SEC/B1G. There were essentially 2 real answers from ADs we spoke to: Texas/OU or Notre Dame.

Well, Texas/OU appear off the table.

So let’s talk ND...

(very long thread… 1/x)

@aadelson First, let's clarify where things stand w/ND: When Notre Dame joined the ACC as a partial member (all sports but football + 5 guaranteed football games/year) it agreed to a.) the same grant of rights deal (through 2036) as everyone else (except for football) + a big promise (2/x)
@aadelson ND's deal with the ACC says that IF the Irish join any conference, it MUST be the ACC. I've confirmed this agreement runs concurrent to the grant of rights, so in place through 2036. Of course, there's a way out of everything in college sports, but it would VERY expensive. (3/x)
Read 34 tweets
23 Jul
Feedback from a longtime administrator on what comes next for non-SEC folks:
1.) Shore up own membership. Don’t get poached.
2.) Reach out to anyone who might offer value to see if they’re open to a move.
3.) Investigate strategic alliances… i.e. Pac-12/ACC/B12 partnership.
Multiple ADs I’ve spoken to today speculated that a 32-team super conference could be the ultimate outcome here, as it would be the only way to help offset the SEC’s massive power advantage, though I think a more diffuse alliance between leagues is the more likely option.
Idea would be that the sum > individual parts and by creating something of a negotiating partnership, leagues could squeeze for more TV money and better TV windows for games, whereas individually, none could touch the SEC’s sway.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
As @kbohls reported (and I'm told is accurate) the Texas/OU to SEC move is looking likely and would happen sooner than later. So probably time to be thinking about what this means in the big picture for the sport of college football, too. (Thread... 1/x)
@kbohls As we've seen with everything from COVID to NIL, there is no centralized body that says "here's what's good for college football and we need to work together for the larger enterprise." It's every man (or conference/school) for himself, which is what gets us here. (2/x)
@kbohls In a business sense, product isn't college football. It's SEC football, B1G football, ACC football. While fans might view them as complimentary products (i.e. a new UGA fan is also a CFB fan), as a business, they act as substitute goods (each new UGA $ is $ lost from B1G.) (3/x)
Read 9 tweets
15 Jun
What does expanded playoff mean for reg season?

Assume a P5 w/multiple Ls by end of Oct was pretty much out. Same for non-undefeated G5.

From 2014-19 that = 86 teams (thru 8 gms), avg 14.3/year.

Now include 2-loss P5 & 1-loss G5 = 178 teams, a 107%⬆️ in “playoff hunt” teams.
Essentially by Week 10 each year, we’ve eliminated 115 or so teams from playoff conversation (many well before that), leaving only about 11% of teams playing “meaningful” games. New playoff would more than double that, which is a great thing for the regular season overall.
In fact, the number is actually likely higher as there have been just 60 P5 teams that finished the regular season with 2 or fewer losses from 2014-19 — avg of 10/year. Since odds are 11 P5 schools will make the playoff most years, at least 1 3-loss team figures to be in the mix.
Read 11 tweets
28 May
😡⚜️ULL U9.5
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under.
🌈Hawaii U6
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
🦁Penn St O9
PSU lost 3x when outgained opp. - 2x by 200+ yards! No team had a higher YoY shift in pts off TO margin (-111). Finished strong.

🛣️🏃‍♂️UTSA U8
Roadrunners were 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less last year. Not buying that luck for another season.
Read 18 tweets

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