Let’s be real about Clemson & FSU...
1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.
2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.
3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.
But none of that matters as much as…
1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.
2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.
3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.
But none of that matters as much as…
4.) the Grant of Rights.
FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...
FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...
Yes, they'd earn more in SEC, which might help offset some financial damage, but it would also put them at a significant competitive disadvantage in their new league. If the rest of the SEC is flush with cash & FSU/Clemson are paying down a $500M debt... that's a problem.
For example: Maryland was on the hook for about $50M when it left the ACC and negotiated it down to $32. Seven years in, the Terps still haven't gotten an equal check to the rest of the B1G. Rutgers is the same. In 2014, Rutgers barely earned more than it did in AAC...
Right now, Clemson is a big fish in ACC’s small pond. Do you really think D-Rad and Dabo are eager to move into a far more competitive league at a financial disadvantage? And the ACC wouldn’t be inclined to budge an inch on the GoR buyout because CU/FSU are existential issues…
Then there's the question of whether the SEC would even want to add Clemson and FSU. Neither expands the SEC footprint and both would have current SEC members strongly against it. SEC folks I've talked to say teams like VT/UNC could be better targets for that reason...
Has *someone* affiliated with FSU/Clemson talked to *someone* affiliated with SEC about the future? It's quite possible, if not likely. Every school should be doing due diligence given the uncertainty of the moment. But the idea that real talks have occurred is highly dubious...
The overwhelming feedback I've gotten around the ACC and the country is that, yes, significant consolidation and an SEC super league is entirely possible, but that outcome would be YEARS away, not months. The political blowback and financial impact are just too big short term...
There’s also universal support for new ACC commish Jim Phillips right now. People around the ACC want to give him time to see what he can do to address the awful TV deal and the inequities with the SEC/B1G. The dynamic could shift if no progress is made, but it's not imminent...
Last thing: I continue to think the play from Clemson/FSU and perhaps other football-first schools is a push for reconsidering equal revenue distribution. Teams trying to compete at an elite level in football want a bigger share of the ACC’s smaller pie...
There's leverage toward that now bc the smaller schools don't want to be left in no-man's land the way the remaining Big 12 programs are right now. Particularly if it helps lure Notre Dame, which remains atop the priority list. I wrote about it here: espn.com/college-footba…
Now, if Clemson and FSU announce they’re leaving for the SEC tomorrow and I’m wrong about all this and random radio guy had it right the whole time, I owe you all a beer.
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