As @kbohls reported (and I'm told is accurate) the Texas/OU to SEC move is looking likely and would happen sooner than later. So probably time to be thinking about what this means in the big picture for the sport of college football, too. (Thread... 1/x)
@kbohls As we've seen with everything from COVID to NIL, there is no centralized body that says "here's what's good for college football and we need to work together for the larger enterprise." It's every man (or conference/school) for himself, which is what gets us here. (2/x)
@kbohls In a business sense, product isn't college football. It's SEC football, B1G football, ACC football. While fans might view them as complimentary products (i.e. a new UGA fan is also a CFB fan), as a business, they act as substitute goods (each new UGA $ is $ lost from B1G.) (3/x)
@kbohls The college business model is akin to if the NFC East was motivated solely to maximize its share of the playoff/TV money, even if it devoured the rest of the NFL in the process. There’s no overarching power structure that says “We’re all in this together.” (4/x)
@kbohls One high level administrator compared the current situation to a table filled with food, where the SEC is full but keeps eating so no one else can have anything. And as I pointed out yesterday, the motivations for Texas -- already the richest program -- are $ first. (5/x) Image
@kbohls Most folks I've talked to throughout 2021 expressed belief that a split from the NCAA was already a foregone conclusion, but Texas/OU news would likely accelerate that process. That also leads to an interesting theory one high-level admin put forth before the UT/OU stuff (6/x)
@kbohls The horse is out of the barn on player compensation, he said. So what if realignment then happens based on a program's willingness to say "screw it, we'll pay" with the "spend money" faction joining together apart from the NCAA and the "amateurism" faction remaining (7/x)
@kbohls That’s nowhere close to reality, but w/money that would inevitably follow Texas & Oklahoma into the SEC & the political pressure that inevitably will follow, there's certainly a framework being built. Either way, if this happens, it's just the start of some massive changes. (8/8)
@kbohls I should also add that, if your primary interest in college sports is anything other than football, I’m sorry. Because it might be a while before anyone in power remembers that there are basketball programs, too.

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More from @ADavidHaleJoint

25 Jul
Me & @aadelson wrote this spring how the ACC can close the gap w/SEC/B1G. There were essentially 2 real answers from ADs we spoke to: Texas/OU or Notre Dame.

Well, Texas/OU appear off the table.

So let’s talk ND...

(very long thread… 1/x)

espn.com/college-footba…
@aadelson First, let's clarify where things stand w/ND: When Notre Dame joined the ACC as a partial member (all sports but football + 5 guaranteed football games/year) it agreed to a.) the same grant of rights deal (through 2036) as everyone else (except for football) + a big promise (2/x)
@aadelson ND's deal with the ACC says that IF the Irish join any conference, it MUST be the ACC. I've confirmed this agreement runs concurrent to the grant of rights, so in place through 2036. Of course, there's a way out of everything in college sports, but it would VERY expensive. (3/x)
Read 33 tweets
23 Jul
Feedback from a longtime administrator on what comes next for non-SEC folks:
1.) Shore up own membership. Don’t get poached.
2.) Reach out to anyone who might offer value to see if they’re open to a move.
3.) Investigate strategic alliances… i.e. Pac-12/ACC/B12 partnership.
Multiple ADs I’ve spoken to today speculated that a 32-team super conference could be the ultimate outcome here, as it would be the only way to help offset the SEC’s massive power advantage, though I think a more diffuse alliance between leagues is the more likely option.
Idea would be that the sum > individual parts and by creating something of a negotiating partnership, leagues could squeeze for more TV money and better TV windows for games, whereas individually, none could touch the SEC’s sway.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jun
What does expanded playoff mean for reg season?

Assume a P5 w/multiple Ls by end of Oct was pretty much out. Same for non-undefeated G5.

From 2014-19 that = 86 teams (thru 8 gms), avg 14.3/year.

Now include 2-loss P5 & 1-loss G5 = 178 teams, a 107%⬆️ in “playoff hunt” teams.
Essentially by Week 10 each year, we’ve eliminated 115 or so teams from playoff conversation (many well before that), leaving only about 11% of teams playing “meaningful” games. New playoff would more than double that, which is a great thing for the regular season overall.
In fact, the number is actually likely higher as there have been just 60 P5 teams that finished the regular season with 2 or fewer losses from 2014-19 — avg of 10/year. Since odds are 11 P5 schools will make the playoff most years, at least 1 3-loss team figures to be in the mix.
Read 11 tweets
28 May
😡⚜️ULL U9.5
🔒🔒🔒
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under.
🌈Hawaii U6
🔒🔒
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
🦁Penn St O9
🔒
PSU lost 3x when outgained opp. - 2x by 200+ yards! No team had a higher YoY shift in pts off TO margin (-111). Finished strong.

🛣️🏃‍♂️UTSA U8
🔒🔒🔒
Roadrunners were 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less last year. Not buying that luck for another season.
Read 18 tweets
28 Dec 20
The Ohio State QB history is so perplexing. Since 1980, they’ve had 20 different QBs lead the team in passing & list includes some elite college guys, but the only one to start more than 5 games and finish with a winning record in the NFL is… Mike Tomczak, who went undrafted.
Meanwhile, of those 20 QBs, 13 were drafted, but just two in the first round — two of the all-time busts.

Art Schlicter & Dwayne Haskins.

Schlicter, 0-8 as an NFL starter.
Haskins, 3-9.
Cardale Jones won a national title. Troy Smith a Heisman. JT Barrett, Braxton Miller, Terrelle Pryor… all terrific college QBs. They combined for 18 NFL starts.
Read 5 tweets
19 Nov 20
Me and @aadelsonESPN spent 4 months talking to more than 4 dozen people for an autopsy on FSU's fall from dominance. I hope you'll read the story. But wanted to share a little more insight here, too. A quick 🧵… espn.com/college-footba…
@aadelsonESPN First, this story is unique to FSU because Tallahassee is a unique place & the Seminoles are a unique brand. But many of the lessons of FSU's downturn are evident in what's happening at Texas, Michigan, Nebraska and elsewhere. Making a CFB program work at an elite level is HARD.
@aadelsonESPN The key to success is two-fold: You have to have the right people win the right roles, and all those people have to be pulling in the same direction. That sounds simple but it's not. Think of the motivations for each power player in FSU's story...
Read 15 tweets

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