Nothing predicts success like explosive plays. Drives with at least 1 explosive play (run of 12+, pass of 16+) average 4.1 points. Drives without one average 0.5 points.

So, who are the players who create the most explosive plays? (1/8)
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (min 100 touches)
Robinson, Tex - 18.1%
Gibbs, GT - 17.5%
Vaughn, KSt - 16.8%
Smith, A&M - 16.5%
Jackson, OkSt - 15.1%
Ealy, Miss - 14.6%
Durant, Duke - 14.3%
Horvath, Pur - 14.1%
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (cont)

Bigsby, Aub - 13.9%
Conner, Miss - 13.2%
Brown, Ill - 13.2%
Spiller, A&M - 12.6%
Goodson, Iowa - 12.2%
Broussard, Colo - 12.1%
Knight, NCSU - 11.8%
Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (min 50 touches)

White, Az St, 26.0%
Dye, Oregon, 24.0%
Robinson, Texas, 18.1%
Tyree, ND, 18.07%
McIntosh, UGA, 17.7%
Gibbs, GT, 17.5%
Vaughn, KSt, 16.8%
McIntosh, Wazzu, 16.7%
Evans, TCU, 16.7%
Smith, A&M, 16.5%
Expl play%, returning P5 WR/TE (min 50 targets)

Metchie, Ala - 31.7%
Wilson, OhSt - 30.2%
Mims, Okla - 28.9%
Greene, WF - 27.6%
Fryfogle, IU - 27.1%
Woods, Okla - 25.5%
Emezie, NCSU - 25.4%
Ezukanma, TTU - 24.7%
Olave, OhSt - 24.6%
Pickens, UGA - 24.6%
Turner, VT - 24.6%
Explosive play%, returning P5 WR/TE (cont)

Dotson, PSU - 21.8%
Harley, Mia - 21.8%
Kolar, IaSt - 21.7%
Snead, Bay - 21.5%
Burks, Ark - 20.5%
Robinson, VT - 20.0%
Washington, PSU - 20.0%
Thomas, NCSU - 20.0%
Boutte, LSU - 19.5%
Robinson, WF - 19.1%
Explosive play% returning P5 WRs/TEs (min 35 targets)

Dulcich, UCLA, 37.5%
Davis, UVA, 36.4%
Copeland, UF, 34.2%
Metchie, Ala, 31.7%
Wilson, OhSt, 30.2%
Jackson, UGA, 29.6%
Stogner, Okla, 29.0%
Jenkins, LSU, 29.0%
Mims, Okla, 28.9%
Carter, NCSU, 28.3%
Most total explosive plays in 2020, returning P5
Hall, IaSt - 35
Spiller, A&M - 27
Vaughn, KSt - 27
Brown, WVU - 26
Williams, ND - 26
Metchie, Bama - 25
Harris, SoCar - 25
Ibrahim, Minn - 24
Ealy, Miss - 24
Most total explosive plays in 2020, returning P5 (cont)
Flowers, BC - 23
Broussard, Colo - 21
Gibbs, GT - 21
Bigsby, Aub - 21
Knight, NCSU - 20
Goodson, Iowa - 20
Harley, Mia - 19
Durant, Duke - 19
Dotson, PSU - 19
Smith, A&M - 19
Robinson, Tex - 19

Side note: Min 100 touches/50 targets last season, Dyami Brown ranked 5th in explosive play% among receivers, Michael Carter was No. 1 among RBs and Javonte Williams was No. 2 among RBs. Phil Longo knows how to coach some offense.

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More from @ADavidHaleJoint

2 Aug
Let’s be real about Clemson & FSU...

1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.

2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.

3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.

But none of that matters as much as…
4.) the Grant of Rights.

FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...
Yes, they'd earn more in SEC, which might help offset some financial damage, but it would also put them at a significant competitive disadvantage in their new league. If the rest of the SEC is flush with cash & FSU/Clemson are paying down a $500M debt... that's a problem.
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25 Jul
Me & @aadelson wrote this spring how the ACC can close the gap w/SEC/B1G. There were essentially 2 real answers from ADs we spoke to: Texas/OU or Notre Dame.

Well, Texas/OU appear off the table.

So let’s talk ND...

(very long thread… 1/x)…
@aadelson First, let's clarify where things stand w/ND: When Notre Dame joined the ACC as a partial member (all sports but football + 5 guaranteed football games/year) it agreed to a.) the same grant of rights deal (through 2036) as everyone else (except for football) + a big promise (2/x)
@aadelson ND's deal with the ACC says that IF the Irish join any conference, it MUST be the ACC. I've confirmed this agreement runs concurrent to the grant of rights, so in place through 2036. Of course, there's a way out of everything in college sports, but it would VERY expensive. (3/x)
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23 Jul
Feedback from a longtime administrator on what comes next for non-SEC folks:
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3.) Investigate strategic alliances… i.e. Pac-12/ACC/B12 partnership.
Multiple ADs I’ve spoken to today speculated that a 32-team super conference could be the ultimate outcome here, as it would be the only way to help offset the SEC’s massive power advantage, though I think a more diffuse alliance between leagues is the more likely option.
Idea would be that the sum > individual parts and by creating something of a negotiating partnership, leagues could squeeze for more TV money and better TV windows for games, whereas individually, none could touch the SEC’s sway.
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As @kbohls reported (and I'm told is accurate) the Texas/OU to SEC move is looking likely and would happen sooner than later. So probably time to be thinking about what this means in the big picture for the sport of college football, too. (Thread... 1/x)
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What does expanded playoff mean for reg season?

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From 2014-19 that = 86 teams (thru 8 gms), avg 14.3/year.

Now include 2-loss P5 & 1-loss G5 = 178 teams, a 107%⬆️ in “playoff hunt” teams.
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In fact, the number is actually likely higher as there have been just 60 P5 teams that finished the regular season with 2 or fewer losses from 2014-19 — avg of 10/year. Since odds are 11 P5 schools will make the playoff most years, at least 1 3-loss team figures to be in the mix.
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😡⚜️ULL U9.5
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under.
🌈Hawaii U6
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
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🛣️🏃‍♂️UTSA U8
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Read 18 tweets

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