SAINIK Profile picture
15 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1.UGLY DUCKLINGS OF 2022: As usual there have been many predictions on the Nifty for 2022, with almost every Analyst/Strategist having targets higher than what it's today (Nifty targets vary between 21K to 23K) while I am expecting 13K-15K ie 20-30 % drop from the highs of 2021😳
2.Yet,I think that 2022 would be one of the Best years for a Long term Disciplined Investor. Am revamping"Ugly Ducklings" Portfolio of 2021.Retained are : 1.ITC ;2. IDEA(Re-entry at Rs. 12.5 last week);3. Bharti;4. Coal India;5. CUB;6. IOC; 7.IGL;8. Lupin & 9.YES Bank.
3.Replaced are:Petronet;Sun Pharma;Federal Bank; Reliance;McDowell's & Divis. Replaced by:REC; Suven Pharma;PNB Gilts;UPL;SuperHouse & Laurus Labs. Hence will be analysing this revamped portfolio taking yesterday's closing prices as Exit/Entry points.
4. If one does SIP regularly in this "model portfolio" of 15 stocks, there is a very high probability of beating the Nifty & getting positive returns by End Of Year.
5. @threadreaderapp .Please "unroll"
The risks to my prediction of a drop in Nifty are 1. Inflation dropping precipitously 2. CBs panicking & restarting loose monetary policies.(Now they are threatening to increase Interest rates)

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More from @sainik636

7 Jan
“Risk Hai Tho Ishq Hai" Risks & Opportunities in 2022 with @sainik636. 9 Jan 2022 at 20:30 on @Clubhouse! clubhouse.com/event/xlyJA994
1.Extensive discussions with an attendance of 600+. Excerpts : 1. My take : 2022 most likely to be a tough market unlike 2021, but will throw up many opportunities which will pay off handsomely in the next 3 years.
2. There is a 'Stealth Bear" market going on which is likely to last 12-14 months beginning from Oct 2021. Likely to be front loaded with most of the damage coming thro' in the next 3-4 months. A significant bottom likely around Diwali 2022.
Read 8 tweets
5 Jan
1. Bull Trap or Just a Pause? : Whether this rally is a "Bull Trap" or the continuation of the Bull Run?.The experts who come on TV are unanimous that last 2 months was just a correction in a Bull Market & we should see new highs sooner than later.
2. Previous Bull Traps:8 Nov '10 @ 6335. Dropped by 10 % to 5690 by end Nov'10. Bull trap led to 6181 by Jan '11, a rally of of 8 %. Final Bottom in Dec'11 @ 4500,a drop of 29 %
3.4th March 2015 @ 9119. Dropped by 9.3 % to 8269 by Mar'15. Bull Trap led to 6825 by Apr '15 a rally of 7% . Final Bottom in Feb '16 @ 6825, a drop of 25 %
Read 8 tweets
2 Jan
1.LUCK BY CHANCE : Excerpts from today's CH discussion where we had 600 + participants. Today, the speakers shared their Lucky experiences in the Market( Of course most of the so called "lucky" experiences were backed by hard work & diligent analysis).
2. Boy who made a fortune overnight : Met a trader who seemed to be just out of teens. Played a very risky game by taking huge F&O positions in PSU Banks in 2017. Govt announced recapitalisation,his 4 stocks shot up between 50- 80 % in 3 trading sessions. Sheer Luck.
3. Li-Lu was lucky to escape the effects of an Earthquake & Tiananmen massacre, went to US got 3 degrees in 6 years from Columbia (1st person),thought he was getting a free buffet one day, but it was Buffett who was the Guest Lecturer. Inspired him to get into Investment biz.
Read 9 tweets
2 Jan
1. Short excerpts of my viewpoint in the Spaces Discussion on 1st January "Do you need to protect your portfolio in 2022?". Pivoted by @deepakshenoy. Fascinating viewpoints by the host as well as @Prashanth_Krish , @arabicatrader @kumarsamit
2. Agreed broadly with @deepakshenoy on sticking with Equity & bailing out if necessary @ 20 % draw down @Prashanth_Krish on appropriate benchmark needed for evaluating portfolio & @arabicatrader on the need to sell everything & go home.
3.Reiterated my Bearish stance for 2022 (which has been articulated in pinned tweets). Further points : Liquidity is the main driver, fundamentals follow; Stealth Bear Market on; Top 10 Nifty stocks have a weightage of 60 %,of which 8 have fallen 15 % or more from 52 week highs
Read 8 tweets
29 Dec 21
1. @latha_venkatesh @_prashantnair . 2022. The Gurus/Experts have all made their Market predictions. Now for some predictions from a layman. Nothing is definite in the markets & life, hence these are only probabilistic scenarios.
2.Most Global Markets including India & the US are likely to drop by 20 -30 % from their peaks of '21. In case of Nifty we could see a worst case of 12800-13000. Bank Nifty likely to fall more than Nifty.
3.Much part of the fall is likely to be front ended. The bulk of the fall likely to happen in the 1st Qtr of CY '22, while the final bottom likely sometime between Oct - Dec quarter. This is a" Stealth Bear" reminiscent of 2010-11 where the Nifty lost 30% over 14 months.
Read 13 tweets
27 Dec 21
1. Excerpts from yesterday's session on CH where we had a total of about 550+ participants
2.INFY: Started in '83; Sold Hardware eqpt. to augment revenue during initial years; Almost collapsed in'89. One of the founders quit. Failed IPO. Used up significant part of Revenue to buy into penny stocks worth Rs.6.3 Cr/Rs.8.6 Cr in 94-95/95-96. Share price swung wildly.
3.Fell 85 % in 2000-01; Fell by 52 % in 2003. In just 2 trading sessions lost 43 % after a profit warning. Lost 56 % in 07-08; Lost 38 % in 2011.Lost 32 % in 16-17. Went mainly sideways for 6 years. Highs of 2000 were crossed only in '06 during which time Nifty had gone up 100% +
Read 8 tweets

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