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Jan 15 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1.UGLY DUCKLINGS OF 2022: As usual there have been many predictions on the Nifty for 2022, with almost every Analyst/Strategist having targets higher than what it's today (Nifty targets vary between 21K to 23K) while I am expecting 13K-15K ie 20-30 % drop from the highs of 2021😳
2.Yet,I think that 2022 would be one of the Best years for a Long term Disciplined Investor. Am revamping"Ugly Ducklings" Portfolio of 2021.Retained are : 1.ITC ;2. IDEA(Re-entry at Rs. 12.5 last week);3. Bharti;4. Coal India;5. CUB;6. IOC; 7.IGL;8. Lupin & 9.YES Bank.
3.Replaced are:Petronet;Sun Pharma;Federal Bank; Reliance;McDowell's & Divis. Replaced by:REC; Suven Pharma;PNB Gilts;UPL;SuperHouse & Laurus Labs. Hence will be analysing this revamped portfolio taking yesterday's closing prices as Exit/Entry points.
4. If one does SIP regularly in this "model portfolio" of 15 stocks, there is a very high probability of beating the Nifty & getting positive returns by End Of Year.
5. @threadreaderapp .Please "unroll"
The risks to my prediction of a drop in Nifty are 1. Inflation dropping precipitously 2. CBs panicking & restarting loose monetary policies.(Now they are threatening to increase Interest rates)

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More from @sainik636

SAINIK Profile picture
Mar 8
1.EXIT POLL,UP POLL,HEADS WILL ROLL: Political Class, Common Man & even Marketmen have been immersed in Exit Polls to position themselves for the future. UP is the focus of attention. An unusual analysis to guess the Winner by asking: "How many seats will the Runner-up get?"
2.Election Opinion polling was pioneered by IMRB(my first job) in the 1980 Election where we predicted that Cong. led by Indira Gandhi would win BIG. She had lost BIG in '77 because of the after effects of Emergency & none believed she could make a comeback so soon. She got 353
3.Buoyed by this success IMRB continued to be a leader in the field but over time the success rate fell down. Even the others who followed met with limited success. Finally IMRB gave up Election Polling completely.
Read 15 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Mar 5
1. Select excerpts from the CH discussion yesterday attended by 600 + participants.
2. Factors to consider whether we are in a Bear Market or still in a Bull Market (i) Economic Indicators (ii) Corporate performance (iii) Stock/ Index Movement. (iv) Liquidity (v) Institutional/Retail positioning (vi)Geo Politics Activity (vii) Technical Analysis.
3.(i)Economic Indicators are mixed. While GDP, IIP, Inflation do not give confidence, only Tax collection esp GST is a Bright spot.(ii) Corp. performance has been "middling" with 1st signs of Inflation reflecting in the Margins of FMCG, Chemicals, Autos etc. Prices have reacted
Read 17 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Mar 3
1.ONGC : People are piling onto it @ Rs. 168. hoping that higher crude prices will benefit it. Remember that in the past Govt has burdened it whenever there is a bonanza in crude. Also its has 3 projects in Russia which can be a millstone on its neck with the sanctions
2 Sakhalin-1 is a large oil and gas field in far-east ONGC Videsh had acquired 20% Participating Interest (PI) in Sakhalin-I on 31.07.2001. Exxon Neftegas Limited (ENL) holds 30% PI and is the operator; SODECO holds 30% & remaining 20% PI is held by Rosneft Subsidiaries.
3. ONGC Videsh acquired Imperial Energy Corporation Plc., an independent upstream oil Exploration and Production Company having its main activities in the Tomsk region of Western Siberia, Russia in January, 2009.
Read 5 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 20
1. Excerpts of the CH Discussion on 20th February 2022
2. FED's Balance sheet has ballooned to $9 Trillion & Global CBs to $25 Trillion in the last 14 years with 60-80 % (across various CBs)happening in the last 2 years yet the markets have stopped going up. Limited utility of extra money being pumped into the system
3. All the Major US indices; DAX; Nikkei; Hang Seng, Shanghai; KOSPI & TAIEX are trading below their 200 DMAs. Only FTSE & SGX are in clear Bull Markets, while Nifty/BN are down just by 7-10 % from their ATHs & are staying above 200 DMA.
Read 14 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 19
1.Break out Failure : These are very dangerous. They can easily go to the previous support
2. INFY. Break out Failure.
3. HDFC
Read 7 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 16
1.STATE OF GLOBAL MARKETS: Have been mentioning in various CH/Spaces Discussions that Global Equity Markets are structurally weak. The boost to Equities by the CBs in Mar 2020 seems to be fizzling out. Let's see how the picture looks one by one
2. NIFTY : Same levels were seen in early Sep '21
3. BANK NIFTY : Even in February 2021 we saw these levels.
Read 17 tweets

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